[Nogrod]

1. There is evil among us.

1.1. There are two wolves.

1.1.2. There are only two wolves against 16 people.

1.1.2.1 It seems they are not knowledgeable of their helpers but only of each other.

1.2. There are four cobblers.

1.2.1. The cobblers - adding with the number of wolves - can create a lot of havoc in any one voting we make.

1.2.1.1. Many times those cobblerish-souls can be kind of ignored until the last Days.

1.2.1.2. This is not one of those times as it seems they know each others identity and are numerous (look also 1.2.1.).

1.2.1.2.1. Unless I read the narration too hastily as it says only that They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

1.2.1.2.2. The beginning of the sentence states it quite clearly that "saw each other" eg. they know each others identity, but the rest of the sentence kind of puts that in some doubt.

1.2.1.2.3. If the interpretation I made is false in the point 1.2.1.2. then the nasty scenario loses some of its potency - which would be good.

1.2.1.3 The antique-dealer is at least partly wrong. Whatever the interpretation, the cobblers are a major problem even if we agreed that the wolves are our main enemies.

1.2.2. The cobblers' possibilities of creating havoc is lessened a little by the fact that they do not know the identities of the wolves and that is good.

1.3. We have six enemies here.

1.3.1. That makes it one third of our total.

1.3.1.1. The sum total of us will be decreasing Day by Day.

1.3.1.2. It will decrease Night by Night to be exact.

1.3.2. It is a new situation indeed.

1.3.2.1. New situations are challenges that might prove either way.

1.3.2.2. Let's hope this will turn out the good way.

1.4. We may be in trouble.

1.4.1. The greatest peril being that the cobblers may twist an important vote with co-operation in a situation they feel safe enough on later Days.

1.4.1.1. If the speculation in 1.2.1.2.1.-3. is right then this danger lessens.

1.4.2. The chances of the cobblers can be denied from them if we are careful and witty enough... and lucky... and the rules favour us.

1.4.2.1. I'd look for nice bandwagons even more closely this time.

1.4.2.2. Especially in the first Days.

1.4.2.2.1. Which throws even more responsibility to the innocents around here for choosing the easy lynch will be exactly the way the cobblers would like to save themselves on the first Days before their time actually comes to perform their ugly duties.

1.4.2.2.2. Differentiating between a lazy / self-preserving innocent and a cobbler will be a task in this situation.

1.4.3. There's no greater light than those of hope and determination.


2. There is much good around.

2.1. There are 12 totally innocent souls against the malice.

2.1.1. Of those twelve two have special powers to help us.

2.1.1.1. Sadly they don't know of each other.

2.1.2. The four lesser evils will be counted as innocents in any tallies if it gets to that point.

2.1.2.1. The mathematical ratio of evil vs. the good is 2 to 16.

2.1.2.1.1. The effect of those four innocent but cobbler persons may twist the voting though (look especially 1.2.1.2.).

2.2. We innocents need not lie or fabricate things.

2.2.1. Forced cases should bring forwards alarm-bells as they are ones the wolves and cobblers need to do.

2.2.2. But how to differentiate those from tests and trials we innocents need to do if the villains want to stay quiet and uncontroversial?

2.2.2.1. A load of people just nodding to each other is the best scenario for the baddies to hide within.

2.2.2.2. And we have six of them trying to hide!

2.2.2.3. Or to be agreeable.

2.3. Let's stay true and sharp.


End of part I.


EDIT: X'd with everything after tp's second post...