I expected
Mith to be the one to die last Night, simply because it seemed everyone pushed her aside, regarding her as innocent. What I did not expect was her to turn out to be a cobbler; I really thought she was an ordo....obviously the wolves did not expect it either. Though when I think back on it, I suppose
Mith's role isn't too big of a surprise..
The big surprise for me was
Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't. If he wasn't a cobbler as I suspected, I didn't think he'd be anymore than an ordo. Poor
Gwath didn't really even get the chance to defend himself. I hate when that happens...
Anyway, looking back at
Gwath's posts I found that the best possible clues came from here:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Gwath
Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent
Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.
If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.
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Now, the uncertainty
Gwath later shares with those he listed as 'potential wolf' makes me think he never dreamt of them.
Of all the players, he shows the most certainty with four (
Durelin, Greenie, Mith, Groin)...my best guess is that he dreamt of two of them. At first I thought this might reveal a lot more info until I looked back at the rules and realised cobblers are dreamt of as innocent...then my whole theory went down the drain.
But if it helps, I kind of doubt
Mith and
Groin were dreamt of. When
Mith came up with the lynch
Kitanna suggestion, she didn't seem that wolfish to me...and I think
Gwath would've thought the same. And
Groin only made one post on Day 1...I really don't think he captured enough attention to be a seer pick. Which leaves
Durelin and
Greenie...two who in my mind would be much likelier seer picks and I think they are who
Gwath dreamt of. And what would that mean?
Durelin and
Greenie could be either ordos or cobblers....considering what
Gwath labeled them, he obviously thought the latter.
Of course in my analysis, I could easily be wrong....but for now I believe it's more likely
Greenie and
Durelin are not wolves, though I would have to agree with
Gwath that at least one could be a cobbler. Though if it's towards the end of the game and they're still not assassinated/mauled, I could very well change my mind....as I don't see why an assassin or wolf wouldn't target them at some point. Funny that I voted for both of them, but in light of this, I think they'll be the first I'd eliminate as lynching candidates for toDay.