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I suspect that in the end, HOBBIT will be a bit more serious than some here would like.... it will be a bit more action oriented than some here would like ... it will have far less of the peculiar JRRT humor than some here would like ... and it will be devoid of the many songs that so many here would like.
And I suspect that it will look far too much like a LOTR film - Middle-Earth Part IV (or I) than many here will like.
And it will make scads of money, be very well recieved by the general public and set up the other move quite nicely thank you.
Trends - be they fantasy films or any other - do not apply here. What does apply is that the LOTR films were a huge success by almost any scale of measurement and most of that public is still around ready to purchase yet again. In fact, it is well that no other big fantasy film has stolen the spotlight from Middle-earth making the hunger for it only sharper over the intervening years.
We will get Ian McKellan as Gandalf again. We will get Gollum again. We get hobbits and dwarves and elves and all will be right with the world as long as that world contains the Shire and Rivendell and a few other spots. If it has enough to be familiar and make people feel confortable, then that is all that is needed.
Jackson as producer will give it enough continuinity to make it acceptable to the film fans who identify him with the franchise. And franchise it is. Del Toro brings his own street cred and abilities and it will give the film enough of a new look to avoid sequelitis.
Have faith.
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