There are two puzzles here, and I'm not sure either can be answered, except by observing of course that in The Hunt For the Ring Tolkien was trying to backwrite history for the story he wrote at a time he had no idea who or what the Black Riders were, or even what had become of Gandalf!
1). My memory may be failing, but I don't recall that Radagast ever told Saruman the Nine were seeking 'the Shire.' What Saruman knew in June was that the BR were searching the Vales of Anduin, which of course he was content to let them waste their time doing.
2) On the other hand, it's amazing that over the course of sixty years Saruman and his intelligence network had never heard the tale of "Mad Baggins," and put two and two together.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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