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Old 02-23-2009, 01:01 PM   #253
Nogrod
Flame of the Ainulindalė
 
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
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Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
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As I saw that tp had already taken the task of cleaning the game board, I have spent my day polishing you pieces. And how nicely you shine now!

Okay. We really need to get that Black Queen, pronto. I don't know if there's any way or method to it as it would be really easy to hide being there alone. Well, I say look at the most agreeable people; those who are the least controversial as in a tough place one tends to not vote for the one whom s/he feels more at ease with or who rubs you the right way. And the BQ has all the chances to play like that as she shouldn't know anything more than we do.

I mean the trio knows each other and may be tempted to cover each other in a tight place or anyhow take stance on people whose role they know. And that normally gives one leads into suspecting someone. But to stop this double-killing we'd need to get all the three first!

So the BQ would be top on our agenda. The problem being that finding her out is more up to luck than our abilities. And meanwhile the trio gets knowledge everyNight by their bishop...

Well, let's heighten our spirits a bit.

Short count says that if we get all the three wolves in succesive Days beginning toDay, we're rid of the wolves and will only have one kill / Night after Day4. At that point - with no special help (eg. BQ killing one of the baddies for us, the Knight protecting someone succesfully...) we'll start Day5 with 6:1 ratio - which is not too bad.

But if we miss a single baddie during the next three Days the ratio becomes pretty tight. One miss in the following Days leads to the ratio of 4:2 on the beginning of Day5! Missing the lynch then would practically mean defeat.

So, summa summarum: of the next four lynches we basically have to lynch right three times. Otherwise we're dead meat (unless lady Fortuna aids us during the Nights). Unless we get the BQ... Nice scenario, isn't it?

I'm trying to go back and see whether there is anything worth pointing out in posting toDay & on the votes etc. from yesterDay.
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