[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm thinking...

And it would make sense to me if Nog was the cobbler. It would explain why he has spent so much time yammering on about something that nobody else thought was worth the bother: he's trying to cause a scene.

Now don't take this as an accusation, more like a hypothetical... I'm thinking aloud...

It would just sort of explain it. So basically, for Nog I'm thinking that he's either the cobbler trying to cause a scene, or he's ordinary and just can't help it.

I don't want to vote for a mere pawn when so much is at stake every end of Day, so I shan't vote Noggins.

The trouble is, I know what roles I think people don't have, but that still leaves a bunch of possibilities for what they might be. It doesn't do much to narrow down my wolf-suspects.

I already said that I don't think the following are Black:

Nog
the phantom
Mira
Rikae
Sally
Lari
Wilwa

That leaves the following as possibles:

Kath
Durelin
Izzy
Brinn
Steve
Mnemo
Hansy

I'm going to think in a tangent for a bit...

I'd like to get the Black Queen early, because killing xer stops the double kills, but it's hardest to track somebody who has no allies by nature.

I'll satisfy myself by wolf-hunting, hoping that we catch xer by accident, or that the wolves get xer at Night. That would be ideal, really... It would be convenient as all heck of the BQ picked a wolf to die the same time the wolves picked xer. The village would be down two baddies at once, without losing any of themselves.

I just had some thoughts about Night dynamics between the BQ and the Wolves, but they're really disorganized and all hypothetical anyway. Mostly I was trying to think of how the Rangers impact behavior at Night. I settled on the assumption that the Black Ranger would want to alternate between protecting the Hunter and the Seer, xer cohorts.

The Black Ranger can't protect the same player twice in a row, but the White Ranger can't protect the same player twice.

This makes me kind of nervous, and very curious. I'd hate to have the role of White Ranger in this game, because how do you choose? Do you protect the person you think will be attacked? Or do you gamble and hold onto your ability to protect that person later in the game, when it might make or break everything? What happens if you get down near the end and your only available protect option is a known wolf?

I'll need to think about this more, to see if anything useful will come of my thoughts on the matter.

In a role heavy game, everything matters.

But back to my voting...

Since I think everybody but these people is White, it kind of forces the assumption that the Blacks are in this group:

Kath
Durelin
Izzy
Brinn
Steve
Mnemo
Hansy

Four out of seven. I've got more than a fifty fifty shot, as long as I'm accurate about who I think is innocent, at picking a bad guy out of this group.

The problem is, "not innocent" doesn't mean I have any idea of actual role.

Gah. I'm probably wrong about this stuff anyway.

I just want to go to bed...

I'm not voting Steve, because he RLdied.

I'm not voting Brinn or Kath because my suspicion of them is more of a lack of comfort than a distinct suspicion.

Dury, Izzy, Mnemo, or Hansy.

Hansy and Mnemo are still quite new, so my suspicion of them might be based entirely on them trying to get a footing in terms of actual Barrowdowns Werewolf playing experience. For that, I'll leave them alone.

And now I'm left to wonder, how did I end up crossing off everybody but Dury and Izzy when like two posts ago I said that I really didn't think Izzy was all that scary looking?

I give up at life.

++Izzy.

I don't trust my judgment on either her or Dury, but at least I'm not alone in systematically narrowing down my list of possibilities and reaching Iz at the end.