Number crunching....sort of
Erm....so I thought I'd posted this but it just sat in a different tab for a while. Have at it, ladies.
9 players
Baddies
1 Black Queen
1 Black Knight
1 Black Bishop
Goodies/Others
1 White Queen
1 White Rook
4 Pawns (1 black, but counts as ordo in tally)
If we kill an innocent toDay, and two innocents die in the Night, we're down to odds of 3/3 and the game's over.
If we lynch and innocent and either Rikae or I are hunted and we take down a bad player, it's 2/3, with a cobbler so really 3/2 and the game's still over.
If we lynch a wolf or the Black Queen toDay (preferably the Queen so we eliminate a double kill) and two innocents die in the Night we're at 2/4, reality of 3/3 and the game's over as long as the black pawn knows who to follow.
If we lynch a black piece and either the Rook or Queen are killed at Night and take a baddie with them, we're at 1/5, reality of 1/4.
Of course, odd circumstances may include both 'baddie sets' aiming for the same piece or an incorrect hunt by either Rikae or myself, but those are some of the basic situations we'll find ourselves in.
Also keep in mind that we have two known innocents, assuming that Rikae isn't lying. Just saying.
Rikae, I suggest you hunt toNight. And sorry for being odd earlier; I didn't realize you could only hunt or dream in a Night, not both. In that case don't bother to dream me, use your power to help the village rather than save your sanity.
EDIT: I'm kind of retracting my 'Rikae should definitely hunt' theory, based on recent discussion. I just didn't want to do the post over when I realized I'd done it a while ago, so sorry if it isn't aligned to what we've been discussing or whatever.
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Fenris bookworm.
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