[Macalaure]

Gwath:

Why would wolf-Gwath not kill Nerwen? His strategy would clearly have been to capitalise on the Nerwen-Izzy animosity. He just needed one of them to do the wrong thing. However, with Shasta and Izzy alive, because of the unlikeliness of Nerwen being lynched, I think the chance of one doing the wrong thing would be higher.


Izzy:

Izzy would need a lot of confidence to make Gwath vote Nerwen, but that could be the only reason to keep Nerwen alive. Of course Nerwen might vote Gwath, but the whole situation looks much easier with Gwath and Shasta alive.
It is in her favour that she's regarded as a cobbler - it makes her a bit more secure of being voted while looking bad, but that doesn't affect the desirability of the two scenarios.


Nerwen:

Is it possible that Nerwen is a wolf after all? In that case, the real seer must either have made a ridiculous blunder, or is still alive, which would mean that Izzy is the real seer, even though she claims it's not so. However, wolf-Nerwen would have suspected Izzy of being the real seer a long time ago - so why is Izzy still alive?


Of course, both wolf-Izzy or wolf-Gwath could have thought that Nerwen is a cobbler.