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Nogrod · 11-09-2009, 11:33 AM

Roa -> Nerwen -> Fea
That was odd indeed. What kind of bothers me the most is that it is so unlike her. I mean I don't remember her panicking whatever her role is - or making hasty moves to that matter (yes she can have temperament but I don't remember her letting it affect her votes). That being said, one is left with wonder whether there is a plan behind that seeming erraticness. Okay, she was dragged away from the desktop by Craydon and that might explain something. I'm very much confused with her... and that is not good at this point of the game.

Lottie -> McCaber
The single most convincing (innocent convincing) part in her posting yesterDay was when he called for not splitting the innocent vote - and then went for McCaber, a known wolf now. And I really can't blame her for voting McCaber.

Nog -> McCaber
McCaber's posting felt foul from the first post on and his submarine playing-style annoys me to be honest (it's a ww playing-style issue, nothing personal McCaber, I like your posting in the Mead Hall fex.).

SPM -> Roa
Lover-reasons eg. "dare to vote for my lover".

Sally -> Roa
She actually says it's "just a feeling" - adding to it then separately that "and of course her vote toDay looked horrible to me". I have thus far thought Sally is just busy and kind of let her fly under my radar, but looking at her voting post from yesterDay does make me want to go back to her earlier posting as well. She might have to had voted when she did (an hour before the DL) but the wordings and stances do not feel entirely comfortable.

Inzil -> McCaber
Seems a reasonable vote. Acknowledges the possible definitiveness of his vote (thirteen minutes before the DL, which might have been a bit premature) which could go either way. Looking back at his posts to find any added reasons for his vote though made me think I should look more closely to his posting otherwise.

Nerwen -> McCaber
Says Roa and MCCaber are the most obvious candidates - and a bit too easy. Gets the "if Roa is a wolf then McC is as well" and adds Sally to the mix in his voting post (if McC is a wolf then Sally or Roa could be, but not both). Practically seals McCaber's death. If she is a wolf with Roa that would make sense (out of two wolves facing the gallows lynch McC and save Roa) - but then again they would be playing a high-stake game indeed with all her pointing towards Roa / McC -connection (& Roa voting her earlier but withdrawing the vote)... Even if I think they might be ones to go to those extremes as wolves, I still think it more probable they are either on different sides or two innocents than two wolves...

Brinn -> McCaber
Has been suspecting McCaber a lot for a while (well she voted him the Day before as well). It looks genuinish. Has Roa as her other candidate but explains why she is not quite sure about her yet. She's one of those I haven't formed any opinion on but need to do it as our time runs out. Unlike other "low-posters" thus far, she looks not only careful but also substantial and reasonable - which is what she is; and which makes her such a great aid to be around you as a friend - and such a dangerous enemy.

Fea -> Roa
Lover reasons eg. "don't you dare to vote me".

What could be learned from this?

The probability of a wolf-on-wolf vote?

Well, those not voting for a known wolf are Roa and Sally and as we have no reason to believe Fea and Spm being the lovers (no counter reveal*) there should be at least one among the McCaber voters.

It would be quite evil-evil for them to all go against their mate; and they were so near making their win so much easier yesterDay (with four wolves around) they probably would have wished to save their mate even taking a risk. Just looking at the numbers yesterDay - with the lovers possibly willing to go for the winning side - they could have diverted the voting away from their mate.

But clearly they didn't.

So who is / are the opportunist/s?

If Roa is a wolf... Then wolves had it tough then after the votes of Spm and Sally as the only ones having votes & suspicion were two wolves. That could make Sally look better actually, as I would think any sane wolf would wish to throw McCaber under a bus rather than Roa. Or could she produce such a cunning plan to make herself look good - possibly counting on the general mood of many others disliking McCaber's low activity thus making her vote insignificant?

If Roa is an innocent... Well Sally looks worse then as I think there were real good reasons to lynch McCaber... and he was a wolf which a wolf-Sally might wished to avoid lynching. Placing the vote after Spm's could be an indicator ("yay, it could be tried after all") - or then not.

Anyway, whether Roa or Sally is a wolf (or both are) the finger would still point towards Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn as one/s willing to save Roa or / and sacrify McCaber. The number of wolves there could be anything from 1 to 3!

But it needs to be one at least.

So to me this looks like a puzzle between Roa & Sally on the other hand... and Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn on the other. I think three of them are wolves as Lottie seems quite better for both because of her rally to not split the votes while voting McC as the first person and because of her honest feeling of anguish yesterDay.

Also I learned in particular that there are just too many people I would have to look back with more care as I see my general feelings are quite... well, general. And there were some things I think call for attention back in there (while I searched for the reasons for peoples' voting yesterDay) I had kind of passed without notice thus far.

* Heh, I just got an awful idea: so what if actually the role of the lovers is a weak one (it says very little in the rules section and the only elaboration of their role is what we have from Fea & Spm) and so the "real lovers" will not wish to come forwards to counter-reveal...

Well it sounds a bit overstreching things but maybe Mira or Nienna could actually fill in whether what the two have said about their role is correct? Just to be on the safe side with them - if there is a safe side with them...

EDIT: Good to see you posting people... I'm back around after I get home and so... needs to run now.

11-09-2009, 11:33 AM	#419
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	YesterDay's votes then, re-examined. Roa -> Nerwen -> Fea That was odd indeed. What kind of bothers me the most is that it is so unlike her. I mean I don't remember her panicking whatever her role is - or making hasty moves to that matter (yes she can have temperament but I don't remember her letting it affect her votes). That being said, one is left with wonder whether there is a plan behind that seeming erraticness. Okay, she was dragged away from the desktop by Craydon and that might explain something. I'm very much confused with her... and that is not good at this point of the game. Lottie -> McCaber The single most convincing (innocent convincing) part in her posting yesterDay was when he called for not splitting the innocent vote - and then went for McCaber, a known wolf now. And I really can't blame her for voting McCaber. Nog -> McCaber McCaber's posting felt foul from the first post on and his submarine playing-style annoys me to be honest (it's a ww playing-style issue, nothing personal McCaber, I like your posting in the Mead Hall fex.). SPM -> Roa Lover-reasons eg. "dare to vote for my lover". Sally -> Roa She actually says it's "just a feeling" - adding to it then separately that "and of course her vote toDay looked horrible to me". I have thus far thought Sally is just busy and kind of let her fly under my radar, but looking at her voting post from yesterDay does make me want to go back to her earlier posting as well. She might have to had voted when she did (an hour before the DL) but the wordings and stances do not feel entirely comfortable. Inzil -> McCaber Seems a reasonable vote. Acknowledges the possible definitiveness of his vote (thirteen minutes before the DL, which might have been a bit premature) which could go either way. Looking back at his posts to find any added reasons for his vote though made me think I should look more closely to his posting otherwise. Nerwen -> McCaber Says Roa and MCCaber are the most obvious candidates - and a bit too easy. Gets the "if Roa is a wolf then McC is as well" and adds Sally to the mix in his voting post (if McC is a wolf then Sally or Roa could be, but not both). Practically seals McCaber's death. If she is a wolf with Roa that would make sense (out of two wolves facing the gallows lynch McC and save Roa) - but then again they would be playing a high-stake game indeed with all her pointing towards Roa / McC -connection (& Roa voting her earlier but withdrawing the vote)... Even if I think they might be ones to go to those extremes as wolves, I still think it more probable they are either on different sides or two innocents than two wolves... Brinn -> McCaber Has been suspecting McCaber a lot for a while (well she voted him the Day before as well). It looks genuinish. Has Roa as her other candidate but explains why she is not quite sure about her yet. She's one of those I haven't formed any opinion on but need to do it as our time runs out. Unlike other "low-posters" thus far, she looks not only careful but also substantial and reasonable - which is what she is; and which makes her such a great aid to be around you as a friend - and such a dangerous enemy. Fea -> Roa Lover reasons eg. "don't you dare to vote me". What could be learned from this? The probability of a wolf-on-wolf vote? Well, those not voting for a known wolf are Roa and Sally and as we have no reason to believe Fea and Spm being the lovers (no counter reveal) there should be at least one among the McCaber* voters. It would be quite evil-evil for them to all go against their mate; and they were so near making their win so much easier yesterDay (with four wolves around) they probably would have wished to save their mate even taking a risk. Just looking at the numbers yesterDay - with the lovers possibly willing to go for the winning side - they could have diverted the voting away from their mate. But clearly they didn't. So who is / are the opportunist/s? If Roa is a wolf... Then wolves had it tough then after the votes of Spm and Sally as the only ones having votes & suspicion were two wolves. That could make Sally look better actually, as I would think any sane wolf would wish to throw McCaber under a bus rather than Roa. Or could she produce such a cunning plan to make herself look good - possibly counting on the general mood of many others disliking McCaber's low activity thus making her vote insignificant? If Roa is an innocent... Well Sally looks worse then as I think there were real good reasons to lynch McCaber... and he was a wolf which a wolf-Sally might wished to avoid lynching. Placing the vote after Spm's could be an indicator ("yay, it could be tried after all") - or then not. Anyway, whether Roa or Sally is a wolf (or both are) the finger would still point towards Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn as one/s willing to save Roa or / and sacrify McCaber. The number of wolves there could be anything from 1 to 3! But it needs to be one at least. So to me this looks like a puzzle between Roa & Sally on the other hand... and Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn on the other. I think three of them are wolves as Lottie seems quite better for both because of her rally to not split the votes while voting McC as the first person and because of her honest feeling of anguish yesterDay. Also I learned in particular that there are just too many people I would have to look back with more care as I see my general feelings are quite... well, general. And there were some things I think call for attention back in there (while I searched for the reasons for peoples' voting yesterDay) I had kind of passed without notice thus far. * Heh, I just got an awful idea: so what if actually the role of the lovers is a weak one (it says very little in the rules section and the only elaboration of their role is what we have from Fea & Spm) and so the "real lovers" will not wish to come forwards to counter-reveal... Well it sounds a bit overstreching things but maybe Mira or Nienna could actually fill in whether what the two have said about their role is correct? Just to be on the safe side with them - if there is a safe side with them... EDIT: Good to see you posting people... I'm back around after I get home and so... needs to run now. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...