[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what do we say of Lottie? As I said yesterDay the wolves will not kill her so it's up to us to decide (sorry Sally, I saw you hinting at me giving the wolves info late yesterDay but really they would see it anyway - and if I was a wolf I would have rather told them that during the Night and not talk of it in open - which I thought I should do as I couldn't know whether I was alive toDay or not).

I don't like this, you are basically giving the wolves a reason to not kill Lottie. By saying "Let's give her a few days and if she's not dead then we'll lynch her" you're offering the wolves a lynch target in a couple days, so why kill her?

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

1. She gave us a wolf
2. Her reveal and details check out
3. He reasons for revealing check out

We'd be foolish to follow that proposed plan. No what we do is we accept the fact that Lottie is a known innocent, who gave us a wolf. If the wolves want to keep her around, that's their perogative. Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

or like you, Mac and Nogrod. I'm starting to think that you all (and me too) are still alive because one of us is a wolf.

That's kind of crappy news because I really don't suspect any of you. So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking or I'm getting paranoid (which is not good news either) either because the wolves are intending people to get paranoid because of the "veteran loudmouths" all surviving or because it's just random we're all alive.

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.

Maybe Brinn and/or Mac are wolves, and I'm alive because they have no reason to kill me since I haven't been suspecting them at all.

Maybe they're killing those who look even more innocent.

Maybe they haven't killed me, because I'm being a pain to the wrong people and I haven't done anything to make them worry about me.

Maybe, I'm too big of a pain and they fear killing me, so as long as I sit in a corner and rant to myself they don't care.

Maybe it's multiple of these possibilities...and these are just the ones off the top of my head.

Instead of trying to make weak-based assumptions about why I'm not dead yet, and this makes you suspicious. Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.

No they aren't. Think of it as a scale, or even your NogRoa point system. ("This looks good for Nog, this doesn't look good for him"). That's all I was doing with the wolf-on-wolf votes.

In general I tend to believe wolves don't do a lot of pre-planned schemes the first night. They want to get an idea of what people are thinking, the situation...etc, before setting out on concrete plans. Plus, the number of people, points to wolf-on-wolf being votes being less likely.

However, that was not a normal Day 2. Mnemo was under considerable suspicion on Day 1, and started Day 2 under even more suspicion. On top of that she did a 180 character change, this pointed to me that either "a wolf-on wolf, or one of her packmates nudging suspicion towards her, os more likely." The only contradiction is "less" and "more," but think of it as a scale and that I was disagreeing with Eomer saying there were no wolf-on-wolf votes. (Now, we also know that Mnemo voted for Pitchwolf, this makes the wolf-on-wolf possibility again more likely, as Mnemo went sacrificial).

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Putting words in my mouth, are you? I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.

Oh really?

Long story short, not seeing any "dodgy reasoning" here. I don't trust Nerwen's vote at all, I think that she's a wolf who tried to either kill Mac or save Inzil (or possibly Mnemo... all three scenarios have interesting connotations)

That's an un-altered quote from your post #234. The only alteration is my bolding to add emphasis.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.

Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her.