[Macalaure]

Nogrod-analysis. I'm intentionally leaving out my posts against him and his posts against me, to try to be objective (and to shorten it, I admit).

Day 1

He has some brief strategy discussion with Brinn, then goes all over the place with his Roa-miscount-thing. He accuses Roa and Nerwen of teamwork for Nerwen's defense of Roa and their shared criticism of Boro. Lommy suggests teamwork between Roa and Nogrod, later she says that at least one of them is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Mnemo

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

Why would Mnemo do this half-hearted defense of Nogrod? It strongly looks like a wolf defending another. Mnemo also stated several times that she thinks both Roa and Nogrod are innocent. Nogrod will defend Mnemo later in #158.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now for the Nog-Roa controversy. We've seen it all before, but this time, Nog looks odder of the two. Secret cobbler is a definitive possibility, but no more than that. Let's keep them both for another Day and see whether Nog comes up with something more substantial.

Pitch takes Roa's side, suspects Nogrod, but not too much: "no more than a cobbler", "Let's keep him for another day". Another defense that looks wolfish.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Has anybody considered Nog has a secret role which is not a cobbler?

What is he hinting at? That Nogrod could be gifted?

Nogrod votes Roa even though the chances of lynching her are slim. He does not try to save Mnemo.


Day 2

Nogrod starts the day in full Roa mode. His case, while overblown, does not look particularly wolfish.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Nog, I found that act you pulled yesterDay extremely puzzling, but with the explanation you've given now, it kinda makes sense. As for your actual case against Roa, I've got to mull it over - it'll be interesting to see how she reacts now, anyway.

Pitch looking for an opportunity to go after Roa is not suspicious. A wolf would do that with an innocent case, too. The way he stepped away from suspecting Nogrod is suspicious, though.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!

Some valid criticism, though nothing outrageous. The "one of the most reasonable people" part is a bit worrisome.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.

This looks like honest suspicion, however, apart from generic suspicions (rubbing wrong way, odd posts), he copies his points. Then again, suspecting generically is something wolves like to do to innocents. All in all, this one looks good.

In #233, Pitch and Mnemo are the first two he discusses. Strange. (Lommy is the third, btw.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pitch I have really hard times with. His vote is bandwagonish and he sure is careful not to suspect anyone - on the contrary he seems to put a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone. Also turning his openly stated reasons (mainly borrowed from others) into just "bad-vibes" looks bad. Mac and Pitch are not both wolves.

Whole lot of points here and no defense of him. Why then the moderate "having hard times with" and not something stronger?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo is a most reasonable person and seems to understand a lot. But she is a bit too nice to everyone carefully not suspecting anyone openly. Her vote was a bit dubious as she first said she would see which one of the two (Pitch / Inzil) would be more probably garnering more votes and then she just tells us she flipped a coin to vote for Zil.

Basically the same he said before, just milder. Repetition of "reasonable" is suspicious, in my opinion.

Mnemo explains herself because Nogrod criticised her twice. (Don't want to check since this thing is already taking too long, but didn't other people raise the same concern?)

From his early vote analysis in #349

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo -> Pitch (based on her analysis on him)

This is interesting. He analyses quite a bit in that short post, but here he leaves it at a very simple "bases on analysis". Many others have criticised her analysis of him as bad (and now we know it w-on-w), but Nogrod doesn't touch it in the least.
As incriminating as this is on its own, he does say that Mnemo's (and Lottie's) votes look worst. He nevertheless refrained from giving reasons, which still looks bad.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Voting-wise it seems Mnemo has made two quite odd votes.

I don't get Mnemo's suspicion on Pitch that because he posts in "chunks" he's suspicious. Quite a strech - not the first one in this game though...

But I think some of Pitchie's posting does look odd and over-careful - at least yesterDay. Here are two prime examples:

(two quotes)

I can't see the point of posting a lot of these... except if one wishes especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way...

What to make of this? On the one hand, he criticises Mnemo now, on the other, he gives merit to some of her points. On the third hand, how is a wolf supposed to act when a fellow is in danger and doing some heavy w-on-w at the same time? Unless you choose to ignore it (which could be interpreted suspiciously later, too), you either go w-on-w for either side, or you end up with something like this...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo's voting looks especially weird and she's not the easy-going voice of reason she was in the early part of D1 - when not yet suspected.

Pitch for being such a nice one taking care not to rub anyone the wrong way but still making an impression he's at it all the time and considers things for the good of us all.

He's been after Mnemo and Pitch consistently this Day, even though each quote taken by itself leaves the w-on-w possibility wide open. It's entirely possible that wolf-Nog has abandoned hope of saving Mnemo by now, but why does he keep on chasing Pitch? Then again, we do have the example of a wolf-on-wolf in Mnemo and Pitch.

Pitch never reacted much to Nogrod's suspicions. Just a very short comment in his vote post. Nog ends up voting Mnemo, unsurprisingly, although he calls it a "hard decision".


Day 3

Nogrod thinks Pitch is less suspicious after Mnemo's guilt - not suspicious. Not sure what to think of Nogrod's doubt about Lottie's claim.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not suggesting lynching Lottie toDay unless some serious counter-reveals emerge, but I'm really quite confused and untrusting of her right now.

Counter-reveals? Who would have counter-revealed it? While this line looks wolfish in the sense of just waiting for a reason to vote Lottie, it makes no sense for a wolf, unless he expected a false claim coming from an ordo(or hunter)-Lottie or in the implausible case that Nogrod and Lottie are the remaining wolves.

The heavy disagreement on Nienna between Nog and Brinn looks very much like one of them is evil. Nogrod votes Nienna, after briefly considering Wilwa.


Day 4

Pitch doesn't say anything and nobody doubts Lottie's claim, so from now on everything gets more vague. I don't see anything pointing in either way, except when Nogrod suggests to still lynch Lottie at some point. If Nog is a w-on-w-ing wolf, why point out other possible w-on-w's so much?


Time is running out on me, and I can't look at toDay now. Bolding the names is taking forever and I can't even really proofread it anymore.

I think everything hinges on Day2. Is it possible that Nogrod went after Mnemo and Pitch in a wolf-on-wolf-ish way or not. I'd dismiss it firmly but for two points: Mnemo and Pitch did wolf-on-wolf, too, and it's a nice way to gain others' trust when there's no seer around. The evidence is very inconclusive, but my bad feeling remains, which is very little reward for hours of work.

I will close quoting Nog himself:

One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!

PS: Everybody who actually read the entire thing, let me know about it and I'll rep you!