So we are 8 players alive (and with just one lynch considered to make it easier).
4 ordos (who don't know each other or anyone)
2 gifteds (who know each other)
2 wolves (who know each other)
The hunter comes forwards and gives us a list of two, A and B.
We lynch the hunter...
Then hunter dies and takes someone with her (I'll use the feminine here so that I don't have to make that "her/him" stuff everytime I refer to the hunter). As she knows the ranger she has a go for 2 from 6 aka. 1/3 chance of getting it right.
If she gets it right with either of her suspects we will be on 5 against 1 facing the Night with one known innocent the ranger can protect. So on the next Day we'll have 4 against 1 with one known innocent in our middle - so every innocent would have a 50% chance (one of two) to vote for the wolf. Very good!
If she doesn't get it right, she will take one innocent with her and we'll face the Night with 4 against 2. The ranger would save the known innocent so we would arise to a new Day with 3 against 2 with one known innocent. Leaving the innocents with 2 from 3 to vote (as they know themselves to be innocents)! Good, good!
That of course if the ranger is up to her/his tasks - which I hope we can count on.
It looks too good to be true.
If I'm not wrong with this. Please check my calculations (I'll double check them myself as well).
But it also it should be thought what would happen if we did not lynch the revealed hunter but just narrowed our scope of voting toDay - although I think the wolves would be suicidal trying to kill the hunter during the Night.
Or what should we do in case of a counter reveal? Do we have time to check one out with 50-50 chances? I mean if that contest is too tight, should a reasonable hunter stay hidden after all?
Goes to count again...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shasta
Remember, your theory rested on the fact that Lottie was a wolf, meaning there would have been three wolves alive. The Hunter could simply have said how many people they were allowed to put on their list at the time to know whether your theory was valid or not.
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Appreciates being corrected... I see it now.