For an actual Christmas as it is today, you would need influence from Jesus or some such figure. Not saying that Christmas revolves around Biblical events at all these days, but it is a "Christian holiday". That was always my reason why there is never a mention of Christmas in the Shire or Middle-earth in general. I think that Yule or the Winter Solstice was brought about much earlier than Christmas. Something like that would be what I think that the peoples of ME would celebrate. Again, this was always my reasoning.
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The Party Doesn't Start Until You're Dead.
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