[Boromir88]

TTN Round 2 Preview
Boromir the Eighty-eight

Round 1 friendlies are complete and the Round 2 games will be coming shortly. Before previewing some of the intriguing upcoming games, let's briefly review Round 1.

I'm not sure phantasy owners can take much out of the first matches, as essentially it isn't a sure barometer of what is to come. In truth, nothing will be until the games start to mean something. However, I think the teams have learned a great deal of information about themselves and the rest of the field. They are no longer going against practice squads, and players not good enough to make it on the tournament roster, but this was everyone's first time going against a quality opponent. Playing this level of competition should be highly beneficial for all teams as no one will go into the tournament blind, nor can any team complain about being unprepared or rusty.

I would not pay much attention to the final scores of the friendlies, but more to what happens from match to match. The 1st round sets a bar, it provides a measure for how they played against another quality tournament team. Now it's about trying to improve your team-play in Round 2, which will set a new standard for Round 3...and so on. The progression (or digression) of teams, from round to round, will probably be more important than their records in the friendly matches.

Here are a few specific examples, take the Gondolin-Dale and Havens-Norbury matches. Both Gondolin and the Havens looked to be in complete control, where Dale and Norbury were absolutely unprepared to play. However, lets not annoint Gondolin and Havens as favorites to win their groups just yet. Both have something to prove this year, and clearly came out trying to prove it in their first friendly. Gondolin has very few hold-overs, completely revamped their roster, and are coming in with a new strategy from last year. They want to prove they are a different and dangerous team. None of Olwe's teams have made it past group play, he usually puts together a highly-skilled, yet nimble group of Elves, who get pushed around. With 3 Numenoreans this year Olwe wants to prove they are not going to be easy to break. The problem is, you don't want to peak too early. For 1, it's difficult to maintain this intensity, and level to play for long periods of time. No one wants to enter the tournament completely fizzled out because they spent too much energy trying to prove their worth in the friendlies. And 2, if you peak too soon, you give the opportunity for other teams figuring you out sooner. A big part of having a deep run in the tournament is being able to surprise your opponent, as Mirkwood did last year. If Gondolin is destroying all their friendly opponents 4-0 they aren't going to go unnoticed for long, and other teams may find ways to beat them by the start of the tournament.

Then on the other hand there's Dale and Norbury, who can not lose morale simply because they got manhandled Round 1. The test will be can they come out performing better in Round 2, or will they become so dejected the wheels have fallen off by the tournament? Dale definitely has proven playoff talent up front. Smaug led Erebor to the Round of 16, and Thranduil was an important key in Mirkwood's surprise run last year. The Lords of Arnor, have fallen short at making the playoffs, but traditionally play better as the tournament progresses and are never an easy foe. Arvedui was furious after the Havens match, but it will be interesting to see how they respond to Thangorodrim in Round 2. Thangorodrim plays a completely different style from the Havens, but the mighty Kings' Norbury typically match up better to meaner, harder-hitting opponents, than the speedy, flashy Elves.

Those 4 teams I'm going to take keen interest in seeing how they play in the 2nd round. So, let's preview 4 matches that should not only be interesting, but may actually prove something about the teams.

Barrow-Downs vs. Gorgoroth
Dale vs. Rohan
Rivendell vs. Utumno
Dol Guldur vs. Gondolin

I've chosen these, because the first 3 are actually teams who are in the same group. Barrow-Downs and Gorgoroth (B), Dale and Rohan (D), Rivendell and Utumno (E). Those 3 will be interesting for the fact that they will all play eachother again. So it will be important for the 6 teams to play at full-level (or as near to full level without over-doing it), because they want to be able to go back, look at the film from this round, and be able to learn from it when they play again in the tournament. The last match will be interesting, because it will be like a re-match from last year, where the Wiki-led Minas Morgul team upset Gondolin in group play to take their spot in the playoffs. So let's start with that match...

Dol Guldur vs. Gondolin

In some ways it's a re-match, and in other ways it's not. It's a rematch because a Wiki-led team is going up against Gondolin again. But it's not because there are a lot of new players. The Wiki has brought over some of his Nazgul from Minas Morgul, but has changed fortresses and therefor has many from Mirkwood and the surrounding area. Gondolin's team is almost completely different, than the one that lost to Minas Morgul.

I think Gondolin wins 4-2, because ultimately they have a feeling of wanting to prove more than Dol Guldur does at this point. Gondolin fans WANT a win against the Witch-King, as opposed to the Witch-King who will probably come in over-confident from his victory against them last year. Also, Dol Guldur's defense should prove about just as effective at stopping Gondolin as Dale did.

Rivendell vs. Utumno

If Utumno does want to win Melkor actually has to play. Will he, is another question. But no matter whether Melkor plays or not, I think the game ends 1-1. For, not even Melkor can get 2 goals against Elrond. I believe, in a 90 minute match, it is impossible to score 2 against Elrond. I qualified it with "90 minutes," because last year, Dor-Lomin did score 2, knocking Eregion out of the playoffs, but it took overtime. Also, Turin and Beleg were arguably the best 1-2 punch of the tournament. Utumno has the power and skill to get 1, but even that will be difficult, so getting 2 is out of the question. Now it will be even tougher for Rivendell to score on the Balrog-loaded defense, but Boromir II stood strong against Durin's Bane, even halting him briefly with a mighty horn blast. Arwen has also shown lots of promise as an offensive threat (for those who are familiar with last year). So, I think they can stun the Balrog-defense just long enough to get an equalizer.

Dale vs. Rohan

Good news for Dale is Rohan is not Gondolin, not by a long shot. Bad news is Rohan is coming off confident from their draw against the Barrow-Downs. That was a match BD let get away, because they under-estimated the resolve of Rohan to battle back. Smaug will be very tempermental after the embarrassment against Gondolin, and a tempermental Smaug usually does not bode well for his opponents. Rohan wins 2-1. Dale is able to play much better, but Rohan has a veteran dragon-slayer at GK, who will keep Dale's Dragon in check. Since we all know that a football match can be judged exactly by taking a story plot.

Barrow-Downs vs. Gorgoroth

Probably the match everyone is most anticipated to see. Group foes, and judging from the phantasy participants it's clear who the favorite will be. The Downs should have won against Rohan, everyone knows it, but the outcome isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. They proved they can play just as good in human-form as they can as werewolves. They may even be better in some ways, because as werewolves, they had a tendancy to get down 2-goals before deciding they actually wanted to play. As humans now, they know they can't dig themselves out of a hole as easily, so they should start every match ready to play. The challenge will be, can they avoid slacking off as they did against Rohan? Will they play the full 90 minutes, and not start thinking about enjoying the Middle-earth bars together, if they have a lead at the half?

Gorgoroth will also be a different opponent. Talent-wise it's hard to say whether they are better than Rohan, but they definitely play a different style. The Barrow-Downs has proven they can play against a skilled-teamed, but ultimately one that will play you fairly and with respect. Gorgoroth will not be the same. As wolves it was almost impossible for anyone to match their ferocity. Have they lost too much of that ferocity? We will find out the answer in this match. That answer is no, the Barrow-Downs will win 2-1.

Gorgoroth will want to turn this match into a drunken bar-fight. But let me tell you, I would pick the phantom, Nogrod, Gwatch, skip, Nerwen, Mira, and Eomerwarg in a drunken bar-fight before I pick anyone on Gorgoroth's defense.