The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post

Boromir88 · 03-17-2010, 03:28 PM

TTN's Round 3 Friendlies

AKM has put together a thorough assessment of the 32 teams up to this point, and their statistical analysis is without question the best a football fan will find. I would be careful about being mis-led by some of the teams performances in the friendlies thus far, however. For example, I think AKM has over-valued The Wold's defense. They've played Vinyamar and Ithilien so far, let's face it, neither of those have showed any promising capability to score. They end the friendlies against Nargothrond and Misty Mountains. After 2 games, the 4 teams the Wold has/will play in the friendlies has put up a pathetic 2 goals (a combined goal-percentage of 3.3%!!). We won't know how good this Ent-defense truly is until the start of the tournament when they have Gondolin and Gondor in their group. We've all seen Gondolin's scoring ability. Gondor does not have the offensive skill of Gondolin, by any means, but they have a lot of talent up front, and also have been able to score against the two already proven solid defenses in Numenor and Mithrim.

We can get into more examples like this at another time, because the purpose now is to preview the Round 3 friendlies. I am merely sending a word of caution to phantasy owners, before jumping on the Wold's (or any player's) bandwagon look at who they've played first, and then look at who they will play. The Wold may be playing well simply because they match up better against a team like Ithilien, playing a team like Gondolin is a much different and far greater challenge.

Without further ado, let's preview the upcoming friendlies...

Aman vs. Minas Anor

Aman hasn't had too hard of a test yet, and if they want to be taken as serious competitors in the tournament they will have to take care of Minas Anor as they took care of Bywater. Aman's first big test will come in the 4th friendly against Gondolin. Most of their top phantasy scorers are defensive players, which shows this team will rely on defense to win. We know Ar Pharazon's ability, but Finarfin is inconsistant and Orome will have to play a lot better than what he's shown so far.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): DF-Turgon, GK-Nienna (8)

I would say Minas Anor has just looked lazy so far. Yes they had Mithrim in the first round, but if they gave up 2 goals to Lorien. The offensive power of Group H (Dol Guldur, Havens, Tirion) will eat them alive, if the defense doesn't improve. Against Aman, the best they can hope for is a draw, and that only if Aman decides to play like they did against the Misty Mountains.
*Top phantasy scorer: GK-Ecthelion II (6)

Aman wins 1-0

Barad-dur vs. Dale

Barad-dur has been hit and miss so far, there are some signs of very dangerous team, but also signs that it could fall apart and not make it out of their group. We know their potential at greatness, which Sauron brings with him, but they haven't been playing as a complete team yet. It's almost like Sauron, Gil Galad, and Isildur are the only guys who decide to show up, and the rest just expect them to do it alone. Dale shouldn't put up much of a fight, their real test will come in their next match against Eithel Sirion.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Sauron, MF-Gil Galad (10)

Dale is dangerously close to completely falling apart. The problem isn't going to be Smaug and Thranduil, both will get their fair share of goals. You see they've given up 7 goals, and may immediately blame Brand's goal-keeping (63% save percentage). However, let's take a closer look at the numbers. In 2 games, Brand has seen 36 shots, and 19 of them on target which he had to try to save. Brand has had to make a save on 52% of the shots! You can't expect your Keeper to shut out a game when he sees 18 shots, 9-10 on target every game. One might say "well they did play Gondolin." But even Rohan tore apart Dale's defense. Not to knock Rohan's capable attack but their numbers against the Barrow-Downs were significantly lower (10 shots, 4 on target) compared to the carving they did against Dale (18 shots, 9 on target). I tip my hat to Brand for playing with the most pathetic defense I have ever seen. If they don't fix it fast, this team is toast.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Brand (8)

Barad-dur wins 3-1

Barrow-Downs vs. Gondolin

The Barrow-Downs has played good teams, but not a top-tier team yet, and now they will get one in Gondolin. The biggest problem I'm seeing is their inability to hold a lead. I wouldn't chalk it up to believing once in the lead they feel "we've got this game won," it just looks like there is no consistancy. There are times where the attack looks unstoppable for 10-15 minutes, and then 30-40 minutes where they can't do anything. BD fans are also unsure of what type of Keeper they have in the Warg. He was much improved against Gorgoroth, saving 4 of 5, but they're not far removed from Rohan where he stopped only 2 of 4. If he reverts back to that save percentage, against Gondolin, this will be a massacre.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Wilwa (10)

I do expect Gondolin's offensive explosion to go down slightly, because of the Barrow-Downs' cunning defensive strategy. At times it looked like they had 14-15 players on the field because of how they swarm to the ball, but again the inconsistancy because other times it was like they just left the field in the middle of play to go to the popular bookstore Elrond's & Sons. Ultimately, Gondolin's offensive numbers will likely not drop enough to make this a competive match.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): MF-Eol (14)

Gondolin wins 3-0.

Beleriand vs. Rivendell

Beleriand's attack is non-existant, but that typically happens when you want to play a conservative possession game. The defense is pretty good, but I guess the idea of trying to get a 1-0 lead and then Marach locking down, keeping possession is still too risky strategy. Beleriand seems to play for a 0-0 draw, which means not only do they find themselves on the losing end often, but makes them terribly boring.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Halmir (6)

Rivendell's offense is statistically better, but really there is no significant difference. Beleriand's had 5 shots on target, Rivendell 6. Rivendell has created more chances (15) than Beleriand (12), but unable to turn those chances into more goals. It's hard enough for anyone to get 1 goal against Elrond, forget about Beleriand scoring. The question will be, is Rivendell even capable of getting a goal in this match?
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Elrond (8)

Rivendell wins 1-0.

Breeland vs. Havens

Bree will have no trouble scoring in any of their matches. Their problem is plain and simple, Old Man Willow. You will hear Bree fans grumble about Bombadil only playing 10% of the time, or the poor defense, but they've accepted these facts about the team for many years. When it comes down to it, Breelanders don't want a Rivendell team that will try to squeak out a 1-0 victory, they want to see goals. Every year, Bombadil gives that to the fans, and each year they know their defense is under a lot of pressure because of the risky offensive strategy. They live with it, but they're not going to want to live with Old Man Willow on the team much longer. I'll go back to my point about Brand. Both Willow and Brand have given up 7 goals, but Brand has seen more shots and has had to save more shots compared to OMW's atrocious 56% save-percentage.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Bombadil (10)

This will be an interesting match for the Havens, and rather important for their defense. They haven't been tested by a strong attack yet, and Bree will certainly give them one. It's going to be an important test because they will face killer offenses in their group, so if they can do an effective enough job at containing Bree's constant attack, Olwe may just have put together a playoff-caliber team. One thing we do know, they will score against OMW, and we are sure to see a lot of goals in this one.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Earendil (11)

Draw 3-3

Bywater vs. Pelennor

A lot of uncertainty surrounds Bywater so far, and fans don't know whether to be optimistic or start hoping for next year. I think Shadowfax and the 2 Nazgul have solidified the defense. They've only allowed 7 shots on target in 2 games, but Cotton is just as terrible as Bree's Tree, only saving 4. Of course Bywater has played Beleriand and Aman, so far, neither have much of a threatening attack. Let's see how their defense holds against Pelennor. Gandalf will be fine and get his points, but Bandobras has been a contributing goal-scorer in previous tournaments. He's going to have to start stepping up his game.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): DF-Shadowfax (5)

Pelennor's played well, but since there are question marks to how much effort Utumno put into their match and whether Doriath is really that bad, than Pelennor's impressive performance may be deceptive. Theoden was heroic at GK for Edoras last year, but the old king's skills might be diminishing. I don't think we'll know any more about them after the outcome of this match, because we don't know the type of team there is in Bywater. Pelennor's good morale should be able to carry them past the shaken, and uncertain Bywater.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Legolas (11)

Pelennor wins 2-1

Dol Guldur vs. Gondor

The Witch-King's going to want to lead his troops against his hated enemies, but Dol Guldur's had a bit of a slow start. You might look at their opponents so far, Thangorodrim and Gondolin, and say "those are great teams!" While that is true, I'm not sure the move to a different fortress was the wisest decision for the Wiki. The Wiki has become too arrogant from Minas Morgul's performance last year. He had The Mouth as GK, who is not a great keeper, but was certainly better than Oropher. Also, he had Castamir and his pirates, plus Beruthiel, which created a down-right scary offense. Now Khamul has joined the Wiki, but are opponents going to look at Bolg and Radagast with the same fear they would if it were Castamir and Beruthiel? Probably not.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): MF-Khamul (10)

I don't think Gondor's defensive numbers are as bad as AKM would lead you to think. The defense has held up strong to the capable attacks of Numenor and Mithrim. Numenor had 10 shots, 5 on target, Mithrim 12 shots, 5 on target. Gondor has forced most shots off-target, leaving Romendacil to only have to save 10 of the total 22 shots (45%). The weak-link has been Romendacil who is only saving it 60% of the time. He will have to improve on that percentage if Gondor wants to make the jump from playing competitively to winning.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Eldacar (7)

Draw 2-2

Doriath vs. Numenor

Doesn't get any easier for Doriath in the friendlies. Thingol and Haleth are getting off shots, but Doriath's total shots to on target percentage is not terrible, it just makes football enthusiasts sick. 29.4%!! Honestly, there's a better chance the ball winds up in the seats, than in the opposing GK hands (Correct readers, I didn't say "in the back of the goal" for a reason). This must be Thingol's "new" offensive strategy to relieve pressure off Melian? Or maybe he's a nice chap who thinks fans want to leave with a souvenir from him? Best start putting it in the net, Thingol, or giving 'em a signed jersey. You don't want to supply fans with any more easily thrown objects than what they already have avaiable, or you'll find out why soccer balls were banned from use in dodgeball.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Melian (6)

Numenor's winning, but this is something I must agree with AKM about, there's something missing. I don't mean the obvious loss of offensive-talent that happened in the off-season, because the Numenoreans are still going to get a lot of shots and it's not like goals are going to be hard to come by, like with Ithilien. Maybe it's simply Numenor is not dominating like last year? Yes, the tournament hasn't begun yet, maybe they aren't playing at full-ability, but there seems to be no fire. It's not uncommon for a team to be content with their Championship win the previous year, and thus not have the same drive or focus, in the next.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK- Tar Atanamir (10)

Still, Doriath is THAT bad. Numenor wins 1-0.

~~~~

The previews for the other 8 matches will be released later.

03-17-2010, 03:28 PM	#22
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	Round 3 predictions TTN's Round 3 Friendlies AKM has put together a thorough assessment of the 32 teams up to this point, and their statistical analysis is without question the best a football fan will find. I would be careful about being mis-led by some of the teams performances in the friendlies thus far, however. For example, I think AKM has over-valued The Wold's defense. They've played Vinyamar and Ithilien so far, let's face it, neither of those have showed any promising capability to score. They end the friendlies against Nargothrond and Misty Mountains. After 2 games, the 4 teams the Wold has/will play in the friendlies has put up a pathetic 2 goals (a combined goal-percentage of 3.3%!!). We won't know how good this Ent-defense truly is until the start of the tournament when they have Gondolin and Gondor in their group. We've all seen Gondolin's scoring ability. Gondor does not have the offensive skill of Gondolin, by any means, but they have a lot of talent up front, and also have been able to score against the two already proven solid defenses in Numenor and Mithrim. We can get into more examples like this at another time, because the purpose now is to preview the Round 3 friendlies. I am merely sending a word of caution to phantasy owners, before jumping on the Wold's (or any player's) bandwagon look at who they've played first, and then look at who they will play. The Wold may be playing well simply because they match up better against a team like Ithilien, playing a team like Gondolin is a much different and far greater challenge. Without further ado, let's preview the upcoming friendlies... Aman vs. Minas Anor Aman hasn't had too hard of a test yet, and if they want to be taken as serious competitors in the tournament they will have to take care of Minas Anor as they took care of Bywater. Aman's first big test will come in the 4th friendly against Gondolin. Most of their top phantasy scorers are defensive players, which shows this team will rely on defense to win. We know Ar Pharazon's ability, but Finarfin is inconsistant and Orome will have to play a lot better than what he's shown so far. Top phantasy scorer(s): DF-Turgon, GK-Nienna (8) I would say Minas Anor has just looked lazy so far. Yes they had Mithrim in the first round, but if they gave up 2 goals to Lorien. The offensive power of Group H (Dol Guldur, Havens, Tirion) will eat them alive, if the defense doesn't improve. Against Aman, the best they can hope for is a draw, and that only if Aman decides to play like they did against the Misty Mountains. Top phantasy scorer: GK-Ecthelion II (6) Aman wins 1-0 Barad-dur vs. Dale Barad-dur has been hit and miss so far, there are some signs of very dangerous team, but also signs that it could fall apart and not make it out of their group. We know their potential at greatness, which Sauron brings with him, but they haven't been playing as a complete team yet. It's almost like Sauron, Gil Galad, and Isildur are the only guys who decide to show up, and the rest just expect them to do it alone. Dale shouldn't put up much of a fight, their real test will come in their next match against Eithel Sirion. Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Sauron, MF-Gil Galad (10) Dale is dangerously close to completely falling apart. The problem isn't going to be Smaug and Thranduil, both will get their fair share of goals. You see they've given up 7 goals, and may immediately blame Brand's goal-keeping (63% save percentage). However, let's take a closer look at the numbers. In 2 games, Brand has seen 36 shots, and 19 of them on target which he had to try to save. Brand has had to make a save on 52% of the shots! You can't expect your Keeper to shut out a game when he sees 18 shots, 9-10 on target every game. One might say "well they did play Gondolin." But even Rohan tore apart Dale's defense. Not to knock Rohan's capable attack but their numbers against the Barrow-Downs were significantly lower (10 shots, 4 on target) compared to the carving they did against Dale (18 shots, 9 on target). I tip my hat to Brand for playing with the most pathetic defense I have ever seen. If they don't fix it fast, this team is toast. Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Brand (8) Barad-dur wins 3-1 Barrow-Downs vs. Gondolin The Barrow-Downs has played good teams, but not a top-tier team yet, and now they will get one in Gondolin. The biggest problem I'm seeing is their inability to hold a lead. I wouldn't chalk it up to believing once in the lead they feel "we've got this game won," it just looks like there is no consistancy. There are times where the attack looks unstoppable for 10-15 minutes, and then 30-40 minutes where they can't do anything. BD fans are also unsure of what type of Keeper they have in the Warg. He was much improved against Gorgoroth, saving 4 of 5, but they're not far removed from Rohan where he stopped only 2 of 4. If he reverts back to that save percentage, against Gondolin, this will be a massacre. Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Wilwa (10) I do expect Gondolin's offensive explosion to go down slightly, because of the Barrow-Downs' cunning defensive strategy. At times it looked like they had 14-15 players on the field because of how they swarm to the ball, but again the inconsistancy because other times it was like they just left the field in the middle of play to go to the popular bookstore Elrond's & Sons. Ultimately, Gondolin's offensive numbers will likely not drop enough to make this a competive match. Top phantasy scorer(s): MF-Eol (14) Gondolin wins 3-0. Beleriand vs. Rivendell Beleriand's attack is non-existant, but that typically happens when you want to play a conservative possession game. The defense is pretty good, but I guess the idea of trying to get a 1-0 lead and then Marach locking down, keeping possession is still too risky strategy. Beleriand seems to play for a 0-0 draw, which means not only do they find themselves on the losing end often, but makes them terribly boring. Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Halmir (6) Rivendell's offense is statistically better, but really there is no significant difference. Beleriand's had 5 shots on target, Rivendell 6. Rivendell has created more chances (15) than Beleriand (12), but unable to turn those chances into more goals. It's hard enough for anyone to get 1 goal against Elrond, forget about Beleriand scoring. The question will be, is Rivendell even capable of getting a goal in this match? Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Elrond (8) Rivendell wins 1-0. Breeland vs. Havens Bree will have no trouble scoring in any of their matches. Their problem is plain and simple, Old Man Willow. You will hear Bree fans grumble about Bombadil only playing 10% of the time, or the poor defense, but they've accepted these facts about the team for many years. When it comes down to it, Breelanders don't want a Rivendell team that will try to squeak out a 1-0 victory, they want to see goals. Every year, Bombadil gives that to the fans, and each year they know their defense is under a lot of pressure because of the risky offensive strategy. They live with it, but they're not going to want to live with Old Man Willow on the team much longer. I'll go back to my point about Brand. Both Willow and Brand have given up 7 goals, but Brand has seen more shots and has had to save more shots compared to OMW's atrocious 56% save-percentage. Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Bombadil (10) This will be an interesting match for the Havens, and rather important for their defense. They haven't been tested by a strong attack yet, and Bree will certainly give them one. It's going to be an important test because they will face killer offenses in their group, so if they can do an effective enough job at containing Bree's constant attack, Olwe may just have put together a playoff-caliber team. One thing we do know, they will score against OMW, and we are sure to see a lot of goals in this one. Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Earendil (11) Draw 3-3 Bywater vs. Pelennor A lot of uncertainty surrounds Bywater so far, and fans don't know whether to be optimistic or start hoping for next year. I think Shadowfax and the 2 Nazgul have solidified the defense. They've only allowed 7 shots on target in 2 games, but Cotton is just as terrible as Bree's Tree, only saving 4. Of course Bywater has played Beleriand and Aman, so far, neither have much of a threatening attack. Let's see how their defense holds against Pelennor. Gandalf will be fine and get his points, but Bandobras has been a contributing goal-scorer in previous tournaments. He's going to have to start stepping up his game. Top phantasy scorer(s): DF-Shadowfax (5) Pelennor's played well, but since there are question marks to how much effort Utumno put into their match and whether Doriath is really that bad, than Pelennor's impressive performance may be deceptive. Theoden was heroic at GK for Edoras last year, but the old king's skills might be diminishing. I don't think we'll know any more about them after the outcome of this match, because we don't know the type of team there is in Bywater. Pelennor's good morale should be able to carry them past the shaken, and uncertain Bywater. Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Legolas (11) Pelennor wins 2-1 Dol Guldur vs. Gondor The Witch-King's going to want to lead his troops against his hated enemies, but Dol Guldur's had a bit of a slow start. You might look at their opponents so far, Thangorodrim and Gondolin, and say "those are great teams!" While that is true, I'm not sure the move to a different fortress was the wisest decision for the Wiki. The Wiki has become too arrogant from Minas Morgul's performance last year. He had The Mouth as GK, who is not a great keeper, but was certainly better than Oropher. Also, he had Castamir and his pirates, plus Beruthiel, which created a down-right scary offense. Now Khamul has joined the Wiki, but are opponents going to look at Bolg and Radagast with the same fear they would if it were Castamir and Beruthiel? Probably not. Top phantasy scorer(s): MF-Khamul (10) I don't think Gondor's defensive numbers are as bad as AKM would lead you to think. The defense has held up strong to the capable attacks of Numenor and Mithrim. Numenor had 10 shots, 5 on target, Mithrim 12 shots, 5 on target. Gondor has forced most shots off-target, leaving Romendacil to only have to save 10 of the total 22 shots (45%). The weak-link has been Romendacil who is only saving it 60% of the time. He will have to improve on that percentage if Gondor wants to make the jump from playing competitively to winning. Top phantasy scorer(s): FW-Eldacar (7) Draw 2-2 Doriath vs. Numenor Doesn't get any easier for Doriath in the friendlies. Thingol and Haleth are getting off shots, but Doriath's total shots to on target percentage is not terrible, it just makes football enthusiasts sick. 29.4%!! Honestly, there's a better chance the ball winds up in the seats, than in the opposing GK hands (Correct readers, I didn't say "in the back of the goal" for a reason). This must be Thingol's "new" offensive strategy to relieve pressure off Melian? Or maybe he's a nice chap who thinks fans want to leave with a souvenir from him? Best start putting it in the net, Thingol, or giving 'em a signed jersey. You don't want to supply fans with any more easily thrown objects than what they already have avaiable, or you'll find out why soccer balls were banned from use in dodgeball. Top phantasy scorer(s): GK-Melian (6) Numenor's winning, but this is something I must agree with AKM about, there's something missing. I don't mean the obvious loss of offensive-talent that happened in the off-season, because the Numenoreans are still going to get a lot of shots and it's not like goals are going to be hard to come by, like with Ithilien. Maybe it's simply Numenor is not dominating like last year? Yes, the tournament hasn't begun yet, maybe they aren't playing at full-ability, but there seems to be no fire. It's not uncommon for a team to be content with their Championship win the previous year, and thus not have the same drive or focus, in the next. Top phantasy scorer(s): GK- Tar Atanamir (10) Still, Doriath is THAT bad. Numenor wins 1-0. ~~~~ The previews for the other 8 matches will be released later. __________________ Fenris Penguin Last edited by Boromir88; 03-17-2010 at 03:51 PM.