[Nogrod]

NB. The number in brackets after the name of the team and their wins-draws-losses is their statistical standing after the friendlies.



Group A

The teams of group A had serious goal-scoring issues during the friendlies. Three of the teams managed to only score twice in four games and the statistics leaders of the group, Aman, only scored five goals. On the flip-side of the coin Aman and Vinyamar claim some of the best goal-tending of the friendlies and their defences have been pretty effective in not giving the opposing side too many chances to score in the first place.

Looking at the stats from the friendlies Ithilien looks like the worst team there is from all the 32 teams, but if one considers the opponents they have faced thus far the picture will change. No one team has faced such opponents thus far (Norbury comes near): Valimar (2nd in ranking), Thangorodrim (3rd), Havens (5th) and Wold (6th)! So a wise gamer would not put it past captain Faramir’s team to show their qualities with easier opponents they face on the group phase.


Aman 2-2-0 (10th.)

Aman might still be the favourites of the group but that is not an uncontested place. They beat weaker opponents (Bywater and Minas Anor) but had to settle with a draw against Misty Mts. To their honour one must say they also took a draw from the mighty Gondolin – although the sceptics remind us that Gondolin is no more what it used to be, the mighty Gondolin, despite their comfortable wins against weaker sides.

Nienna has proved to be a quality keeper and with the saving-percentage of 86,7% she has been the third best goalie of this year’s set up thus far. The question is whether the Aman defences will hold later against some more quality-forwards and whether Nienna can keep up with her saving percentage against them. The Valier and Turgon have been comfortable in the backlines, but they have had it more or less easy most of the time and have not been truly tested yet.

Also it has to be admitted that Ar-Pharazôn has been far from his flare and the Noldorin prince has not been able to feed him with passes – or be available to his passes – like Ar Pharazôn has used to in the Armenelos team. A lot depends on whether “the Golden” gets inspired and connects with “the Golden Hair”, or whether the rest of the midfield can wake up to support their lonely striker-genius.

There were some shared games the teams from group A played and looking at the results from them gives one some confidence that Aman will go through to the next phase though: both Vinyamar and Beleriand played a draw against Bywater but Aman won them comfortably 2-0.

AKM prediction: advancing to the next round.


Beleriand 0-2-2 (23rd.)

They managed to draw with Lorien and that is not a bad performance, but then again Lorien isn’t a team that feasts with goals anyway. Losing to Tirion is no disgrace but drawing with Bywater might be.

It may be that Beleriand is not so bad a team the stats say, but it is hard to believe in their chances of getting forwards from the group phase. The lord of the Haladin is an average goalkeeper at his best who might be spirited against orcs but they will face none in group A.

Basically the whole team has been a disappointment. The defences let the opponents to shoot on target a way too often, the midfield is just armless (legless?) and Marach has not shown any leadership thus far. Whatever their future will be, the AKM strongly advises not to choose players from Beleriand to any phantasy-team: Halmir would have gathered 12 phantasy points in four matches (3 per game on average) but the next best players would have gathered only 4 points (1 per game), old Hathol making a disgraceful -2 phantasy points.

Comparing to the other teams in the group they played level with Vinyamar with both teams having a draw with Bywater (Aman beat them 2-0), but they lost to Tirion 0-2 while Vinyamar forced Tirion to a draw.

AKM prediction: not advancing to the next round.


Ithilien 0-0-4 (32nd.)

Looking at the stats after the friendlies Ithilien is the worst team of all: they have lost all their matches and are having a -5 goal difference with the least goals made. But appearances maybe misleading as they’ve had the strongest opposition any team has had during the friendlies. So AKM will call Ithilien the black horse of the group A.

But for them to rise to the occasion they need to stop hiding in the bushes and become the soldiers of Minas Tirith facing their opponents openly. Thus far only Faramir has taken care of coming forwards and scoring (he has made both of their goals), and the Mumakîl has been left quite alone as the last lock of the defences. Be it his strangeness to the defenders or not, but the defence needs to gather around their goalie if they want to make it through the group phase.

To downplay their chances one has to note though that Ithilien lost to both Wold and Havens while Vinyamar forced those very same teams to a draw. So that would give an edge to Vinyamar over Ithilien.

AKM prediction: might be the black horse of the group but needs to show their qualities first.


Vinyamar 0-4-0 (19th.)

The “draw-specialists” have forced quite mighty teams into a draw – but they had to contend themselves with a draw with Bywater as well. So do they have what it takes to actually win a game? In the group phase draws will not carry them forwards.

Rog “the strongest of Noldor” from the House of the Hammer of Wrath has been the fourth best goalie thus far and looking at the adversaries the team has played, the opposition will be easier in the group phase. So beware! Scoring against Vinyamar will be hard indeed as also the defence of a vala, maiar and the tall man has been just superb. Bywater only managed two shots on goal against Vinyamar while they got four on Aman and five on Beleriand (not to speak that Bywater managed 10 shots total on Aman, 11 on Beleriand but only 6 on Vinyamar).

So there will be no easy goals against Vinyamar. But can they score themselves to win games? The forwards and the attacking midfielders have been walking in the shadows thus far and need to come forwards to the light for Vinyamar to go further in the tournament. Many people look forward to Idril to take more responsibility, but everyone wonders what is it with Tuor; if others have been wandering in the shadows thus far then Tuor has been probing in total darkness.

It will be interesting to see how far a great defence will do; but playing a draw with Tirion (fourth in the overall friendlies), Havens (fifth) and Wold (sixth) is something the other teams should be aware of. This team is hard to beat!

AKM prediction: advancing to the next round.



Group B

If group A had some serious scoring problems during the friendlies, then group B is the opposite of it. With all the scoring talent group B is the top of the pops with the four teams producing a staggering 31 goals in four matches, making it about two goals on average in every match they played (group A teams made about ½ goals per match).

Many also thought that group B would be the “death-group” and in many senses of the expression it still is, but looking at the confidence with which the Barrow-Downs have beaten both Gondolin and Numenor there can be but one favourite to this group leaving all others to contest for the second place. Barad-Dûr and Gorgoroth have faced more or less easy opponents and haven’t made an impression, Breeland has had it tougher, but isn’t looking like a winning team either. So which of the three will go forwards?


Barad-Dûr 2-1-1 (14th.)

The sceptics say that Barad-Dûr’s programme in the friendlies was an easy one and thus they’re not as competitive as the numbers would indicate. Faced with one tougher side (Eithel Sirion) they were beaten quite easily 1-3.

On a good day Barad-Dûr surely can score goals. In four matches they have produced nine goals making the average 2,25 / match. But the problem is that they have bad days as well. On two games they have been left into one goal scored. A better sign is that the responsibility of scoring is spread quite evenly: Elendil, Gil-Galad, Isildur and Sauron have all scored twice. So if one is not in top shape one day the others can score the deciders. Barad-Dûr is not depending on a single player with scoring.

But they are allowing their opponents way too many goals. Their defences are just too slow for any fast-paced attack and the Mouth is not a goalie with whom one would win tournaments. Their only hope on that front is that Gorgoroth’stats on defence are too good as they have not played too many tough opponents and that the Breeland team continues performing even worst in their defence.

It would be premature to write Barad-Dûr off from the next round anyway. Even if Sauron has scored twice and assisted three goals he has not been the artist and architect he was last year. But one should never underestimate a side with Sauron on board.

AKM prediction: fights for a place in the next round.


Barrow-Downs 2-2-0 (9th.)

The Barrow-Downs’ metamorphosis into a human team has been a success so far. The team is confident and is playing top-quality football right now. After two initial draws with some pretty good sides (Rohan 11th, Gorgoroth 12th) they really started to rock’n’roll. The wins over Gondolin and Numenor showed what they are cabable of. Had not the two giants fallen to BD they would be claiming some of the overall top-seats after the friendlies (Gondolin would be in top-six and Numenor in top-three).

Like Barad-Dûr, Barrow-Downs has effective players able to decide games on a large front: Wilwa and Nogrod have both scored twice, but also tp, Sally and Fea have scored when the forwards have been marked out of the game.

After the disaster in the opening game (four shots on target and two goals allowed) Eomerwarg has found his true nature and has climbed in the goalie stats claiming the eighth place at present. If his fury and self-confidence keeps building up with this momentum he will be very hard to get past in the later stages of the tournament.

They’ve had one of the most challenging programme so far and are confidently claiming two wins and two draws, with a rising performance-curve. It’s hard to see them not qualifying from group B.

AKM prediction: advancing to the next round.


Breeland 1-0-3 (21st.)

Breeland lost to Barad-Dûr in the friendlies and have only managed to win Minas Anor, the second worst team after the friendlies. They have conceded third most goals of all the teams and Old Man Willow is the second worst goalie statwise. So no hope for Breeland?

Actually it’s not that simple. If Bombadil happens to be interested, if it’s misty enough for the Barrow-Wight to play, if Strider gets support from others… those three can probably outscore any opponent in this tournament even if their own defences are leaking big time. Thus far they have orchestrated nine goals in four games which is impressive, but is it enough? HOw could they solidify their defences?

It’s hard to predict a qualifying place to Breeland but it is not impossible either. Friendlies are always friendlies and real games are real games.

AKM prediction: not advancing to the next round, unless getting a motivation boost.


Gorgoroth 2-2-0 (12th.)

Of the runners-up of this group Gorgoroth has not impressed with their scoring but they have much more solid defences than their closest contenders Barad-Dûr. Although AKM seriously suggests any phantasy-player willing to invest on Gorgoroth-players would first check the ratio they are picking up cards as it seems that for any points gained they lose some from the cards taken.

What the sceptics said of Barad-Dûr also aplies to Gorgoroth: their friendlies programme was more or less easy. But they wrestled a draw from the Barrow-Downs, and that’s no little feat looking at the friendlies now.

There are many questionmarks however. How is Eärnur faring with his captors? In four games he has managed only one goal and two yellow cards. The team needs him, playing for the team and not just standing in the field feeling sour. Also the King of the Dead arose only in the last game. Was that just a spark that went off or is he actually awakening? Could Gollum play more Smeagolish as to avoid all the cards he’s picking up and to concentrate more on aiding the team? Can the Usurper carry the team alone if others do not raise to the occasion? Do their card-fast defences hold against attacks from the Breeland trio, or from Sauron, Isildur, Gil-Galad and Elendil?

AKM prediction: fights for a place in the next round.



Group C

Many thought group C would be a walk in the park to the astonishingly strong looking team of Mithrim. No one was ready to bet on the old Arnorians from Norbury, and so the second place was thought to be battled out between Finrod Felagund’s Nargothrond and the stout fighters of the Pelennor Fields led by Theoden king. But after the friendlies many an eyebrow has been raised and the situation looks more curly than it did before them.

Mithrim has not played the extraordinary game everyone thought they would play and Pelennor doesn’t look like it should belong to the group of sixteen best teams of the tournamnet. Nargothrond has had some real issues with scoring but Norbury, even with having problems keeping their goal clean, actually look like a potential qualifiers. This will be a hard group to predict, after Mithrim that is.


Mithrim 3-0-1 (7th.)

Mithrim lost to Eithel Sirion 0-1 but ES has played very convincing football thus far and it was only a friendly match. So nothing to get worried about. They beat the weaker opponents more or less confidently. Hurín has gathered 2+2, Turín 2+1 and Beleg 1+2 in four games. Huan is in the top ten of the goalies thus far. So everything’s looking good?

Well no it isn’t. Everyone anticipated flare and artistic brilliance from this team. Everyone presumed the team would dominate the field with ease. That hasn’t happened. It kind of feels their game has just not yet locked into place. They have now three matches to do that.

Huan has been excellent in standing between the posts as long as the opponents have been weaker sides and the quality of the shots less than remarkable. But against Eithel Sirion he allowed two goals from just five shots on target. Mithrim enthusiasts should cross their fingers it was just an accident and not something telling about Huan’s present condition.

With two shut-outs Mithrim’s defence looks pretty good (especially phantasy-pointwise) and Curufin’s sharp runs forward have already produced one goal. But their opponents have been rather weak – except Eithel Sirion – so it is hard to say how they will fare in the qualifiers – where they will of course go.

But the flare of Hurín, Beleg and Turín is the thing all the fans are missing. Or is it just the unreasonable expectations laid on them?

Be what it may, Mithrim will advance to the next round, but facing either Valimar or Thangorodrim in the first qualifying match-up will be the moment of truth to team Mithrim. It’s clear they need to be better then than they are now.

AKM prediction: advancing to the next round.


Nargothrond 0-0-4 (29th.)

Let’s face the facts: Nargothrond has lost every game they have played. Statistically their opponents have been among the twelve best and they have lost every match with just one goal. But that also tels one, that they most probably are not among the twelve best in this tournament. Groupwise Nargothrond still has chances to qualify if they can just step up their attack, especially the accuracy of their shots.

That would mean that Finrod should become the great founder and king he is – and the borrowed striker Mablung should start playing and not only pick up cards, and Barahir should come to rescue of the “friend of men” once again and not just deal the ball to and fro in the midfield while the enemy swirls around. They have faced tough teams, but honestly, they have only scored one goal! Most importantly, the effectivity of the shots is what is missing. Getting in only one shot from 34 shots taken is just a depressing stat (2,9% efficiency, the worst of all teams: compare it to the 20+% of the leading teams!).

Nargothrond’s defences are not bad. Led by the silverhand Celebrimbor they have allowed the opposing team just 1,25 goals on average / game. But allowing even that the forwards should come up with at least two goals a game – and that is what is missing right now.

Although some sceptics say that Beor is finally catching up with his nickname and is really being too old to this tournament. With a saving percentage of 64,3% he has been so far the fifth weakest goalie of all. So the defences need to be alert.

Can Finrod Felagund rally his troops around him? That’s the question.

AKM prediction: fights for a place in the next round.


Norbury 0-0-4 (30th.)

There weren’t too many people willing to bet on Norbury before the friendlies, and just looking at the numbers it looks like no sane person would do that now either. But there is a big “but”. If Nargothrond has had strong opponents during the friendlies then Norbury has had, if possible, even a bit stronger teams against it. And even if their goal-difference is one goal worse than Nargothrond’s their scoring effectivity and goal-keeping have been better overall.

Norbury’s attack revolves around Araphor and Malbeth – and they are both doing good work. But more is needed if they are to get through the group phase.

Also their defences need to step up and change the gear. So far they have conceded at least two goals in every game they have played, and even if Arvedui seems to be a better goalie his reputation allows him, he can’t pick all the balls coming his way (27 shots on goal in four games would be a challenge to any goalie).

If they get their game into form against a lot weaker opponents than which they faced in the friendlies there’s no reason to not believe they have their chances of qualifying. But it wil be close.

AKM prediction: fights for a place in the next round.


Pelennor 1-2-1 (17th.)

There were some hopes that this mötley crew of third age heroes led by king Theoden could challenge the elder generations of men, the elves, the beasts and the undying folk. But that hope should be buried now. Pelennor will not challenge any top team in this tournament, how much Legolas fan-girls might wail over it.

They just don’t have it.

Pulling a draw with Gondor is not a bad thing in itself and would point towards them being able to challenge earlier generations. Being able to do the same with Bywater is no less a feat, or winning the pathetic Doriath… but is that enough to put them into top 16? No it’s not.

But the AKM is not yet ready to write them off from qualifying from the group either. With the support of fangirls and the young male-audiences, Legolas and Eowyn might just do the trick as they have done so far. The teams Pelennor has faced in the friendlies have been a class weaker than those Nargothrond and Norbury have faced but unlike the two teams, Pelennor has scored some goals and that might give them an edge of confidence.

It will be close.

AKM prediction: probably not advancing to the next round, but has a slight chance to qualify.


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