*note: I seemed to have left my stat sheet on my laptop which I will not have access too all weekend. Therefor, I will not be able to give the teams top phantasy scorers of the friendlies for the final 4 groups. My apologies to all those loyal phantasy readers.
These two groups are the deepest and will be the most competive of the tournament. 6 teams have great talent and reasonable chances of making the playoffs. The other 2 are no slouches either, they are just unfortunate to get the tough draw. There will be no "sure and easy" wins in these groups
GROUP E
Misty Mountains- Their best weapon is physicality which can wear down and bruise their opponents. The problem isn't just running the risk of having players sent off with cards, but I can't see a hard-hitting defense being very effective against the teams in this group. The hardy Numenoreans are difficult to wear down and then there's Utumno, who's front line players will scare even the trolls. It may work to their advantage against Rivendell, but Elrond's teams are always composed and don't get drawn into making silly mistakes, like being coaxed into a foul. And as far as the defenses they'll be up against? They should consider getting 1-goal in 3 games a success.
Numenor- The previous 2 years the Numenoreans have put together some of the best tournament teams. I'm just not seeing the same fate this year. Tar Atanamir struggled in Numenor's last friendly, but I wouldn't worry about that. He'd be a fine GK for phantasy teams, as always, and still relatively cheap. They're lacking the scoring threat this year, especially when they will have to be up against the defenses of Rivendell and Utumno. And to be frank, if the Misty Mountains keeps all 11-players on the field they won't be easy for anyone to score on. Maybe starting the tournament will give the spark that turns into the brush-fire the Numenoreans will need, because right now they look like wet logs.
Rivendell- I'm going against the grain and saying Rivendell gets in instead of Numenor. Simply because of the defense, and the masterful goal-tending of Elrond. I would not be surprised if he doesn't concede a goal in any of these matches. What I noticed as a problem in the friendlies, is the defense played a little more open than usual. They are one of the best team-oriented defenses...great communicators and cover well for eachother, but they are not the best athletically. I do think Elrond will fix this, by tightening up his formation, which will limit the space, and metaphorically choke opposing offenses. The bigger question will be scoring. They don't have enough to go far in the tournament, but there is enough (with an impeccable defense) to get into the playoffs. The key player will be Arwen, who surprised everyone with impressive offensive numbers last year. What makes a player great though is being able to repeat, which she will have to do for Rivendell.
Utumno- A bit of a lackluster friendly, but Melkor didn't seem to interested or concerned about winning. He will be in the tournament, this is why he started up his own team in Utumno. We can safely assume Melkor will be one of the best MFers, as always, even with his lazy friendly workout. The balrog defense is just as physical as the Misty Mountains but they avoid the cards because they play wiser. They are masters of disguising dirty tackles, because they don't just go ramming into people with their shoulders. I expect Utumno to sweep the group, but they will not be easy wins by any means, which could be their ultimate demise in the tournament. Melkor's teams have a long history of starting out like an unstoppable category-5 hurricane but quickly diminish to a tropical storm by the time it reaches land.
Predicted Group Standings
1. Utumno
2. Rivendell
3. Numenor
4. Misty Mountains
GROUP F
Bywater- Shadowfax was a great addition to that defense, which greatly limitted opponents scoring opportunities. And if they keep getting more scoring chances than their opponents they're a nice upset pick. I can see them matching up well against Lorien and Valimar. The reason I have them being eliminated though is their shaky GK Cotton. Thangorodrim and Valimar have FWs who can not only blast the ball off their foot with authority, but put wicked movement on it when they have to. I don't see Cotton being good enough to stand up to those kind of shots, no matter how few chances he'll face because of a great defense.
Lorien- I must admit they've performed better than I expected in the friendlies, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Still, they're not going to get into a high scoring match with anyone. And defensively, while being good, I would not pick them as a Top-5 defense, they may not even be Top-10. Galadriel is a very good goal-tender, but she's slightly overrated, because you just don't think of her as a top-notch goalie. For instance, yes, I would take the more expensive Huan and Elrond in a heartbeat. But I would also take Tar Atanamir, Mandos, and Melian over Galadriel, and you can get them for the same cost.
Thangorodrim- Between Thangorodrim and Valimar you can pretty much flip them. However, while I think Valimar has a greater chance to win the group, I think Thangorodrim has an overall better chance of advancing. So, if they don't finish first, they'll likely wind up second, because they are that much better than Lorien and Bywater. Where Valimar, if they don't finish first, have a bigger chance to be upset by Bywater or Lorien simply because of their conservative style. Thangorodrim is the complete opposite, which does leave their defense vulnerable. However, it's hard for teams to exploit that vulnerability because their FWs and attacking-MFs always have the ball, and always push forward. For why I have them finishing 2nd though, see Valimar.
Valimar- We saw a different Manwe team than usual. You usually see a dreadfully conservative and terrible belief that they don't have to play, because if Eru wills it they will win, and if not they won't. However, we saw a different will in their match against Utumno, the will to win. They should have that same fire against Melkor's servants in Thangorodrim. The question is how do they play against Bywater and Lorien? We are hearing a different tune out of Valimar than usual though. Manwe said in Valimar's last press conference:
"No. We still believe in the will of Eru. However, in the off-season we learned a valuable lesson from a brave and courageous hobbit. He had fate on his side, but did not sit comfortably and kick back at home, waiting for the Ring to levitate to Mordor and destroy itself. He acted and in doing so, made his own fortune. You have to, and if it is by Eru's fate we win, then we will."
Predicted Group Standings
1. Valimar
2. Thangorodrim
3. Bywater
4. Lorien