View Single Post
Old 04-10-2010, 03:02 AM   #23
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Voice That Gainsayeth
 
Legate of Amon Lanc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.Legate of Amon Lanc is spying on the Black Gate.
Okay, rechecked the votes and also noticed that Boro accompanied his vote with "sorry hun, duty is forcing me to make this choice". Which, basically, is a big note saying "there is something going on here" - although it looks like he said it just to apologize to Fea whom he even might have thought innocent. Anyway, adding two and two together... it's really clear to see now where the WWs were (I'd say almost 99%) coming from.

Otherwise... if I were to assume that there is at least one Wolf in each of the bandwagons, which might as well not be the case, given that Wolves might have been just throwing away votes all over the place and making the village do the bad work... on the other hand, in my experience, the innocents are usually far more straightforward with their votes, i.e. if they have a suspicion, they go for it no matter that nobody else follows them, unlike WWs - of course depending on the particular WW, but I just think it's somehow more likely that way.

Anyway, what was I originally saying. If I had like a gun pointed at me right now and be told "say one name from each bandwaggon", from the Fea bandwaggon, I'd think of either Nogrod or Brinn, as skip who started it sounded reasonable and it was not a bandwaggon yet. Then maybe Brinn more than Nogrod, however I admit I'd have to reread Nog's posts one more time (and Brinn's maybe too, though I think I remember them better as there were less of them), as Nog generally speaks sense (well, Brinn does too, but...) but Brinn seems more "creepy". But in general, I consider both of them quite innocent and reasonable. There is however one important thing to take into account - would the Wolves dare to kill Boro toNight if there was one of them in the Fea bandwaggon? As that'd leave quite a few people, and if somebody took the idea that "now there is a Wolf in Fea's voters, I am sure of it!" there will be quite a large chance for the Wolf there being caught. Not that, on the other hand, there wasn't much of a difference - if Boro was alive and Lottie killed instead, he would probably reveal anyway and thus there will be again only 3 people left. Of course, it all comes down to how much the Wolves did think of at Night, which we can't determine. It could also have been perceived just as a "well, whatever" or "let's do it, we hope that people are not going to examine Fea's voters, thinking that she was a Cobbler so no Wolf voted her" (that would be a rather lame thinking, so I don't assume we have such simple Wolves). In other words, btw, it made me think that this must have been a really baaad Night for the WWs. "This Day went just wrong!" Quite a broken spirit, eh, dear furry stalking friends?

But I think the middle way would make the most sense, that the WWs just did what they had to, and now hoped the Fea voters won't be looked at. Okay, now actually along this train of thought, I have arrived somehow to being more inclined to believe that there might have been a Wolf among Fea voters more probably. If so, then I'd really put my bets on Brinn, as if you look at what she said toDay early, she started assuming a Wolf in Lottie-saving bandwaggon, but she explicitely named Greenie-wagon to be looked at, which could mean downplaying Fea-voters (of whom she is one)... and the more if Greenie was another fellow Wolf of hers.

However, note that this is a theory now made as my thoughts go, following the original premises. As for the other one, Lommy and Greenie are equally good choices for me to find a Wolf in the other bandwaggon if I were to look for it, maybe with having a few more reasons to think Lommy innocent for things she said yesterDay. But anyway, only speculating.

Then there of course would be another, wait, two Wolves among the rest! For that matter, sally's vote's been mentioned yesterDay as somewhat out-of-place and I sort of agree, if nothing else, it was inconsistent with what sally said. It wouldn't be a problem otherwise, but I think Nog or who was it had a point in saying that if sally wanted to save Lottie (resp. create a contest-bandwaggon), she would vote for somebody who already had a vote, and not me who didn't have a vote at all. I don't know if there was much of a chance to lynch me at the point (it didn't seem to me so much), so not sure if I can believe sally's explanation. (And that said, what I said above about innocents sticking to their votes won't certainly apply in this case - as that was not the reason sally stated, she came up with the somewhat strange explanation that she wanted to save Lottie.) Anyway... I am keeping my eye on her now.

Now otherwise, I'd need to look at people again... but I have at least somewhat settled the thoughts for myself.

EDIT: x-ed since my last
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories
Legate of Amon Lanc is offline   Reply With Quote