It's time to make my first match-up predictions of the tournament. No one can touch my near flawless record last year, not even MESPN or AKM. This year I will not fizzle out towards the end, and just wait until playoff times when I unleash my giant-slayer/slayee teams.
First things first though, Round 2 of group play.
GROUP A
Aman vs Beleriand
Both matches from Round 1 ended in a 1-1 draw. All teams are still level and are in a no better position to advance than they were at the beginning. This actually works in Beleriand's favor as they will be the underdogs against Aman, but they are still very much in contention to advance out of the group. I still have to like Aman in this one, who has the better defense in limitting Vinyamar to fewer scoring chances than what Ithilien got against Beleriand. Also, the better, more proven, more consistant offensive talent led by Ar Pharazon.
Aman wins 1-0.
Ithilien vs Vinyamar
This will truly be an interesting game, if Vinyamar doesn't start upping their energy to take advantage and win games, this will end up just as another draw for them. Drawing may be enough to move Vinyamar to the next stage, seeing as they will play Beleriand in Round 3 and Ithilien will be up against Aman. However, do they really want to leave their playoff fate to the last Round? What if Aman takes care of business against Beleriand, is a sure lock for the playoffs, and doesn't commit a full effort towards their last match? See the problem, Vinyamar? Best take care of business this week and defeat Ithilien, because another draw will not put you in a good spot for Round 3. Too bad for them...
Draw 1-1.
GROUP B
Barrow-Downs vs Breeland
Interesting here because as in Group A, all teams are still completely level after Round 1. Is anyone in this group determined enough to battle for a win? I mean Breeland can honestly beat anyone of these 3 teams, but they won't because they depend on an unreliable player too much. And the trouble for the Barrow-downs is they couldn't get a lead in their first match against Barad Dur. So, if the same happens and Bree steps out to an early lead, then the 'Downs will be battling just to keep it close and hope to force another draw. The Barrow-Downs must score first, if they do they win, because this puts a lot of pressure on the defense and forces Breeland to have to battle back, which they are perfectly capable of doing if (and only if) Bombadil is in the game. The positive news is that there seems to have been a comradery that's grown between these two, since they're in a foreign land surrounded by Orcs and other wicked creations. Whoever wins, won't have to fear any sort of retaliation.
Barrow-Downs wins 3-2
Barad-Dur vs Gorgoroth
The tricky thing about calling this match is I can see some kind of pre-planned shenanigans where neither team commits full effort against eachother, in hopes that both Mordor teams advance to the playoffs. So, the result of the Bree-BD match could have an interesting effect on this match. If one team wins, then I don't think Sauron has a choice, he will have to step out to force subjection upon the "inferior" Mordor team. However, the "inferior" Mordor team will then try flex their own muscle to prove it is infact Barad Dur which is the previous team. If however, the 1st match ends in a draw, I won't be surprised if this one is some how manipulated to end in a draw. Although, Sauron has shown in the past, when it comes to the Arda Cup, he doesn't care about coddling his underlings, he will force them into submission.
Barad Dur wins 3-2.
GROUP C
Nargothrond vs Pelennor
We'll see if Pelennor can bounce back against a woeful 1st round performance. The good, Nargothrond's talent is no where near Mithrim's. The bad, they are still a very strong defensive team, and you can bet Finrod will look at how Mithrim was able to shut down Pelennor's attack and he will prepare Nargothrond to do the same. Since Nargothrond's not as good offensively, this won't be another 4-0 shelacking, but Pelennor will continue to struggle to score goals. A loss means Pelennor is automatically eliminated, they'll literally be fighting for survival and that may provide the spark Pelennor needs to bring out the best. Watch out Nargothrond.
Draw 1-1
Mithrim vs Norbury
I think Norbury will provide a slightly stiffer resistance to Mithrim then Pelennor did, because defensively Arvedui will not leave his team open to dangerous counter attacks. Also, he is a better GK then Theoden. However, as good as Araphor is (especially since he seems to play better as the match goes on), Norbury still isn't strong enough to crack 'The Fair and The Crafty' (Yes, I admit I enjoy the use by AKM, however since they didn't trade market, it's fair, and crafty gamesmanship to take it
), nor beat Huan more than once.
Mithrim wins 3-1.
GROUP D
Gelion vs Rohan
This will be a highly important match. Assuming Eithel Sirion will do what they're supposed to and defeat Dale, the other team to advance out of the group will probably be determined in this match. Rohan will end against Eithel Sirion, so they will pull out all the stops in this match against Gelion. A win gives them 6 points and guaranteed advancement. Also, Gelion will not look at their final match against Dale as a "sure win" by any means. Dale will be a very dangerous foe for them, and Dior knows it. So, they will also view this match as a must win. This is setting up to be one of the most entertaining, and deciding, games of all the Round 2 games.
Rohan wins 2-1.
Dale vs Eithel Sirion
Not much more to add to these 2 teams then what's already been said. Smaug and Thranduil will get their goals, but the defense is hopeless. Eithel Sirion also proved in the friendlies they are just as capable of winning the high scoring affairs, as much as the low-tight games.
Eithel Sirion wins 4-2.
To be continued...Tomorrow
