[the phantom]

Who still has hopes of advancing? Who has already locked up their spot in the playoffs? Those are the questions we'll take a look at here in this third round preview.

GROUP A
Vinyamar (4 pts, +2 gd)
Aman (4 pts, +1 gd)
Beleriand (1 pt, -1 gd)
Ithilien (1 pt, -2 gd)

Aman vs Ithilien
Beleriand vs Vinyamar

Everyone is still in the running here. Vinyamar clinches with a tie, win, or even by losing by only one goal. Aman clinches with a win or tie, but could still back in with a loss. Beleriand must win, and to clinch outright must win by two goals. Ithilien must win, and can only be certain by winning by three goals.

GROUP B
Barad-Dur (4 pts, +2 gd)
Barrow-Downs (4 pts, +2 gd)
Breeland (1 pt, -2 gd)
Gorgoroth (1 pt, -2 gd)

Barad-Dur vs Breeland
Barrow-Downs vs Gorgoroth

Everyone still has hope in this group. Barad-Dur and Barrow-Downs can both clinch with a win, tie, or loss by one goal. To clinch outright Breeland and Gorgoroth need to win by three goals, though they could possibly advance with only a two-goal margin.

GROUP C
Mithrim (6 pts, +5 gd)
Nargothrond (2 pts, 0 gd)
Norbury (1 pt, -1 gd)
Pelennor (1 pt, -4 gd)

Mithrim vs Nargothrond
Norbury vs Pelennor

Mithrim has already clinched the playoffs plus the top spot in the group. Second is up for grabs. Nargothrond clinches with a win, but can get in with a tie if the other match ties. Norbury and Pelennor can get in with a win coupled with a Nargothrond tie or loss. Norbury could advance with a tie plus a Nargothrond loss.

GROUP D
Eithel Sirion (6 pts, +4 gd)
Gelion (3 pts, 0 gd)
Rohan (3 pts, 0 gd)
Dale (0 pts, -4 gd)

Dale vs Gelion
Eithel Sirion vs Rohan

Everyone is still alive here. Eithel Sirion can clinch with a win, tie, or 1 goal loss. They also clinch with a Dale victory or tie. Rohan is in with a two goal win, or with a one goal win coupled with a Gelion tie or loss, or a tie coupled with a Gelion loss. Gelion clinches with a win plus a Rohan tie or loss. They also clinch with a tie and a Rohan loss. If both should win, the best goal differential would advance. If that's equal, the most number of goals scored advances. If that is equal as well, Gelion advances due to their win against Rohan. Dale has no way to clinch, but can advance with a two goal win over Gelion paired with a Rohan loss to Eithel Sirion by three goals.

GROUP E
Utumno (6 pts, +5 gd)
Numenor (4 pts, +2 gd)
Rivendell (1 pt, -2 gd)
Misty Mts (0 pts, -5 gd)

Numenor vs Utumno
Misty Mts vs Rivendell

Utumno is already in the playoffs, and clinches the top spot with a win or tie. Numenor clinches the top spot with a win, and a playoff spot with a tie. A loss or tie by Rivendell also clinches the spot for Numenor. Should Rivendell win by one goal, Numenor could still advance so long as they do not lose by more than three goals. Should Rivendell win by two, Numenor would want to keep their match within two as well. Rivendell can advance if they win and Numenor loses, and the goal differential adds up to 4 or more. Misty Mts is out of contention.

GROUP F
Valimar (6 pts, +3 gd)
Thangorodrim (4 pts, +2 gd)
Bywater (1 pt, -1 gd)
Lorien (0 pts, -4 gd)

Bywater vs Lorien
Thangorodrim vs Valimar

Valimar is into the playoffs, and gains the top spot with a win or tie. Thangorodrim gains the top spot with a win, and the second spot with a tie. They can still advance with a loss if Bywater ties or loses. With a Bywater 1 goal win Thangorodrim could still advance with a loss by 1 or 2 goals. Bywater can gain the second spot with a win plus a Thangorodrim loss with the goal differentials adding up to three goals or more. Lorien is out of contention.

GROUP G
Gondolin (6 pts, +5 gd)
Gondor (6 pts, +2 gd)
Doriath (0 pts, -3 gd)
Wold (0 pts, -4 gd)

Gondolin vs Gondor
Doriath vs Wold

Gondolin and Gondor will be in the playoffs, Doriath and Wold will not be. The only thing up for grabs is the top spot, which Gondolin gains with a win or tie. Gondor gets it with a win.

GROUP H
Tirion (6 pts, +4 gd)
Havens (3 pts, 0 gd)
Dol Guldur (3 pts, -1 gd)
Minas Anor (0 pts, -3 gd)

Minas Anor vs Tirion
Dol Guldur vs Havens

Tirion is into the playoffs, and claims the top spot with a win or tie, or with a close loss combined with a small margin of victory in the other match. Havens advances with a win or tie. Dol Guldur advances with a win. Minas Anor is out.