[Nogrod]

and some speculation about the play off pairs.

Part I


Group A

Aman vs Ithilien
Beleriand vs Vinyamar

Ithilien and Beleriand have theoretical chances of qualifying. Depending of the result of the other game they both could qualify with a two goal win (Ithilien might need a three goal win though). The AKM notifies their chances but bets heavily on Aman and Vinyamar to qualify.

The reason for that is not only that Aman and Vinyamar have shown themselves to be better teams overall than their two contenders in group A, but they both will also have a strong incentive to win their group. That incentive is Tirion which the runner up of group A will most probably face in the first play-off round. At the moment Vinyamar boasts +1 better goal difference. So watch out Aman attacking relentlessly against Ithilien.

The problem for the winner of this group is that neither Haves or Dol Guldur will be an easy opponent. But it is clear either team could go to the field against either one thinking there is a game to be played. Tirion is just on the next level for both Aman and Vinyamar.

Because of Vinyamar’s superior defence and goal-keeping the AKM predicts Vinyamar to win the group and Aman finishing as the runners up. Thus Vinyamar would meet either Havens or Dol Guldur in the first qualifying game, and Aman would meet Tirion.

Group H

Minas Anor vs Tirion
Dol Guldur vs Havens

Tirion is basically the winner of the group already and faces the weakest team of the group in it’s final game of the group phase. And it’s hard to see team led by Fëanor to have an attitude problem! So they will probably go with full steam also in this more or less insignificant match just for the sake of their pride and honour. Tiron has scored four goals in both of their earlier games against Havens and Dol Guldur so it’s quite comfortable to predict they will not score less than four against Minas Anor (a free tip to phantasy players: Tirion forwards + attacking midfielders bring you points!).

The game between Dol Guldur and Havens will be a thriller. The winner qualifies and the loser is left into the group-stage. If they draw, Havens will qualify with better goal difference.

Looking at the stats it seems that both teams are more or less as active attackers (H 30 shots, DG 31 shots) and their overall scoring percentages are basically the same (H 16,7%, DG 16,1%). Oropher on Dol Guldur goal has slightly better saving percentage (68,4%) than his counterpart Olwë on Havens’ goal (64,3%), but the Havens’ defence is superior in not letting the opponent to shoot. And that difference: 28(14) shots towards Havens vs. 36(19) against Dol Guldur, looks to be the most decisive one making the AKM to bet slightly in favour of Havens qualifying. But it’s clear Dol Guldur is a mighty opponent and has all the chances to qualify as well.

So the AKM predicts Tirion to win the group with three clear wins and then Havens going against Vinyamar. But it is possible Dol Guldur takes the second seat and qualifies instead of Havens. It wil be one of the most interesting matches of the last round.


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Group B

Barad-Dur vs Breeland
Barrow-Downs vs Gorgoroth

Barad-Dûr and the Barrow-Downs draw their game and won their second game 3-1. So their basic statistics are identical. Both teams would like to win the group so they need to play with full steam also in the last game even if they have more or less secured their places of qualifying. No one would like to start their play-offs with meeting Gondolin (the most likely opponent for the runner up). So they will do their best to win the group.

Like in group A, Breeland and Gorgoroth have theoretical chances of qualifying but that would call for mighty wins (at least three goal wins) which the AKM holds very improbable indeed.

Looking at the probabilities then. Barad Dûr is one of the most effective scorers of the tournament and they face Breeland where Old Man Willow’s saving percentage (58,3%) is the weakest of the tournament by a margin (no other goalie has an under 62% average). On the other game the Barrow-Downs is one of the most active attackers and even if their scoring isn’t as effective as with Barad Dûr, they are one of the best there as well. Gorgoroth on the contrary is one of the teams that lets the opponent to shoot the most. So the "effective against the worst goalie" or the "most active shooters against the team that lets the opponent to shoot"?

It’s hard to name a favourite to win the group but it is easy to say that the two BD’s will face the two Gondo’s in the qualifiers.

Group G

Gondolin vs Gondor
Doriath vs Wold

This group is already packed. Gondolin and Gondor will qualify and they only need to play out which team wins the group to face possibly a slightly weaker side in the first round of play offs. Doriath and Wold will play for honour only.

Both Gondolin and Gondor have showed their qualities as strong teams but Gondolin seems to have the edge on every area you can build statistics from. Gondolin’s goal difference is 5-0 while Gondor has 3-1; Gondolin’s overall scoring percentage (goals / shots overall) is 17,9% while Gondor has 13,6%; Gondolin’s accuracy with shooting (shots overall / on target) is 50% while Gondor has 45,5%; Gondolin attacks ie. shoots more with 28(14) thus far while Gondor has shot 22(10) times; Gondolin defends better ie. has allowed less shots 12(4) against it while Gondor has allowed 23(9); and Huor’s saving percentage is pure 100% while Romendacil’s is a very good 88,9% (best goalie of those who have allowed a goal).

Especially the difference in the defence looks like an important one: letting the opponent to shoot half of the shots Gondor has allowed speaks good of Gondolin defences and makes it the AKM favourite to win group G.



Part II to come...