[Nogrod]

and some speculation about the play off pairs.

Part II


Group C

Mithrim vs Nargothrond
Norbury vs Pelennor

Mithrim has already secured their top position in group C and will face Thangorodrim or Bywater in the play offs. So the last round is all about who will face Valimar… an opportunity neither Nargothrond, Norbury or Pelennor would like to face. But no can do as that is their only route forwards, even if it looks like a dead end.

Now the first question is whether Mithrim could be too satisfied with their game thus far and don’t feel the need to make a 100% performance. Then again looking at the line up of the team Mithrim with Huan, Curufin, Húrin, Túrin, Beleg… one doesn’t look at a line of players who’d quit the effort. That would spell trouble for Natgothrond.

Some nasty tongues though have speculated whether Mithrim would give away the game against Nargothrond just to help their relatives, friends and ancestors to qualify. The AKM feels the need to point out these rumours exist and be done with them. It’s hard to see team Mithrim with such foul play in mind.

So actually the hometeam Norbury looks the strongest candidate at the moment to go forwards to face Valimar on the next phase. Pelennor has clearly been a disappointment and if Norbury manages to beat them they will be more than close to qualifying, especially if Mithrim plays for real against Nargothrond. Looking at the stats, beating Nargothond should be more or less a walk in the park for them.

Group F

Bywater vs Lorien
Thangorodrim vs Valimar

Valimar has secured their qualifying but will probably not be looking forwards meeting Mithrim this early in the tournament. So it would be in their interest to secure the pole position of the group. A draw would be enough for them. But there have been some speculations also whether they would like to destroy the chances of Thangorodrim and play with full steam to help Bywater as much as they could.

But there is another side to the issue as well. Even if Thangorodrim were forced into a draw with Bywater they surely claim one of the best attacking force and talent in the whole group and Valimar surely haven’t been tested that way so far. Although there are increasing rumours the Valar are just toying with the tournament, winning easily when they wish but not so much as to offend any goodies.

Anyway, breaking the Valimar defences will be the key to any Thangorodrim success. With Durin’s Bane, Scatha and Ancalagon one would think they could at least challenge the card-ready defenders Pallando and Alatar. But will Manwë and Vana still prove a too big a challenge?

On the other match everyone expects Bywater to win and so does the AKM. Lorien’s stats are just downright horrible and even Galadriel has played quite poorly. A lot dependes on how Gandalf and Saruman can beat up their game. There is not much of an offencive threat facing them from Lorien.

But whether it is Bywater or Thangorodrim to qualify, they will face Mithrim in the first play off match and it would take a miracle for either team to make it.


-----*****-----

Group D

Dale vs Gelion
Eithel Sirion vs Rohan

In theory everyone but Dale have chances to win the group. In practise Eithel Sirion will take the group and Gelion will be the runners up. There are two small “buts” there though; if Dale makes a surprise awakening in a situation they have no chances of qualifying and beat Gelion against all odds, or if Eithel Sirion suddenly loses to Rohan more than Gelion beats Dale... But one can see the prospects aren’t too promising.

And anyway, Eithel Sirion has been a very solid team thus far and they would never let Rohan win the game endangering their top position and thus opening the possibility of facing Utumno on the next round. So with a win over the pathetic Dale team Gelion should be through – to most probably face Utumno and leave the tournament.

Group E

Numenor vs Utumno
Misty Mts vs Rivendell

With all the stats one can produce Misty Mountains have been the losers of the group. But it has not been only their weakness. The other three teams have just been pure iron. Misty Mts lost to Utumno 3-0 and to Numenor 2-0. But can Rivendell rise up to occasion? They have been a hard nut to crack mainly because of Elrond’s goaltending but can they score when it is needed? And they would need to score more than one goal. With only 7,1% efficiency of scoring and only 5 shots on goal in two matches it looks pretty improbable they could produce the nmber of goals needed.

Also Numenor has shown some awakening signs, so even if they lose to Utumno they will probably not lose in that big numbers as to give Rivendell a chance to beat the goal differences (Numenor +2, Rivendell -2). But whichever team makes it to qualify will have a tough ride ahead facing Eithel Sirion in the first play off game.

Numenor may beat Utumno to be sure, but at the moment it is not the most probable scenario. Losing players like Ar Pharazôn, Sauron and Tar Minastir still shows in inefficiency of scoring. Defencive-wise Numenor has not been as flashing it was last year but it still is one of the best in the whole tournament.

If they can choose, Utumno will rather face Gelion or Rohan than the trimmed team of Eithel Sirion led by Maedhros and Fingon so they should have an incentive at least to draw the game. Naturally, a draw would be enough for Numenor to qualify as well... but winning Utumno would put them in the top position and thus avoid meeting Eithel Sirion in turn. It will be an interesting match between the two!