[Boromir88]

I would say that those friendly matches were a great warm-up as last week I called 13 of the games correctly (including the draw between Nargothrond and Pelennor). Out of the 3 I got wrong, I had predicted draws which didn't happen for 2 matches. Leaving the only winner I called wrong was Rohan, as Gelion got a deserved 1-0 win by playing lights out defense. My calling the correct score is still not quite up to last year's standards, but it will be soon enough.

It's true that some of the teams I've predicted to advance to the playoffs, like Wold have already been eliminated. I did not see them getting manhandled by Gondolin. As well as others, such as Rivendell, who are still mathematically in, but will have to have a lot go their way to jump Numenor. However, I do like taking calculated risks, and those were some risky choices. I ask for you to stay tuned and read my "Giant-slayers" article when the playoffs begins, as I will look to identify who has the potential to go on a Mirkwood-like run, and knocking off some tourney Giants.

GROUP A
Aman vs. Ithilien-
There is still a lot for Aman to play for so they should not slack off. They came out cold against Beleriand and had to comeback to win, but this also means they have the potential to comeback from games they get behind early in. Also, Ithilien isn't going to be an opponent which will run away with a 2 or 3-goal lead. How they match up, Nienna's been the better goalie, also helped by the fact that she's pllaying behind a better defense. Aman has also created more scoring chances, and has a major edge in goal percentage, 15.8% to Ithilien's poor 5.9%

Aman wins 1-0

Beleriand vs. Vinyamar-
First place is Vinyamar's to lose, but it's not like they have a lot of room to slack off. It's a slim margin, and Aman is playing statistically the weakest team in the group. Halmir has so far been the 2nd best goalie of the group, but he's playing behind the worst defense. Beleriand's defense has allowed more shots on goal (14) than any other team in the group, and that is more than double of what Vinyamar's allowed (6). In order to keep this game close, Halmir will have to continue to play at the level he's been playing at for Beleriand to have any reasonable chance. Vinyamar's scoring percentage is a little lower than Aman's, but they've created 22, compared to Aman's 19. They will keep this consistancy against Beleriand, and defensively Ulmo really has his team playing at a high-level.

Vinyamar wins 2-0.

GROUP B
Barad Dur vs. Breeland-
Barad Dur won the friendly 3-2, but funny enough Breeland was actually trying harder back then than they are now! All of Mordor should be out to watch both matches today, as their teams are going up against the despised foreigners, and there's a lot at stake in the group still. However, out of the 2 games, Bombadil's only played 1/2 of one so far, so in true Bombadil fashion, I expect him to show up for at least a-half today and give Barad Dur a mighty headache. A rather minor inconveniance though, as he will disappear for the rest when Sauron and his guys will then be able to take control.

Barad Dur wins 3-2.

Barrow-Downs vs. Gorgoroth-
Their friendly ended in a 1-1 tie, and it was a rather hard fought battle. It'll be interesting to see how this one is called, as will the ref be willing to hand out the yellows in the middle of Mordor, in a match when the host team needs a win for a shot to advance? Big game for both teams and I wouldn't be surprised if someone is sent off the field before the end (and likely someone from Gorgoroth). Shagrat described BDs defense as being "Spider fodder," but for being such a pack of rabble they have really shut down some good offenses, where Gorgoroth has struggled to create their own chances. The only ones who seem to be working well together are Castamir and King Dead, which won't be enough.

Barrow-Downs wins 2-1.

GROUP C
Mithrim vs. Nargothrond-
With first already wrapped up it's likely Mithrim will not be playing at their highest level. Phantasy owners may want to pick up some players from Mithrim now, while there are still unlimitted trades. Since, they will not only be in the playoffs, but they will really start turning it up for the playoffs. We agree with AKM that they aren't rotten enough to tank the game to try and get Nargothrond into the playoffs, and even with a less than full effort Mithrim should win relatively easily, as I can't foresee Nargothrond giving much of a problem to Mithrim's defense.

Mithrim wins 2-0.

Norbury vs. Pelennor-
This is going to be a fabulous match to witness at the ancient Amon Sul stadium. If Nargothrond loses (or even ties) both teams will be all out to get a victory. We should so some fabulous goals and great football. With their backs against the walls after the embarassment against Mithrim, Pelennor stepped up big to get a draw against Nargothrond. Though now, a draw will do them no good, they are in a must win situation. In some ways the stats are heavily skewed to favor Norbury, since Pelennor was routed by Mithrim. Make no mistake, Norbury will be seeing the Pelennor side that tied Nargothrond. They will attack ceaselessly and Arvedui will have to be dynamite at Keeper. However, that's been the biggest difference, the goalies, Arvedui has played much better than Theoden. Against Nargothrond he faced the same shots against Theoden, but gave up 1 less goal, that is a small but significant difference. The only question is does Araphor and Norbury have enough in the tank to score three against Pelennor, because that's what it will take to win this one?

Draw 2-2.

GROUP D
Dale vs. Gelion-
Gelion has been quite a surprise defensively, I knew they were good, but weren't anticipating them being this good. They put a great Eithel Sirion on team on the ropes, and completely shut down a Rohan team that we know can put up high scores. Dale is still mathematically in it, and because of that Smaug isn't going to give up, but talent-wise they just can't win this one. Their scoring percentage of 13.3% is even lower than Gelion's 15.4%, and that is something I would have never predicted. As far as defense, Gelion is leagues apart from Dale. I don't think they attack enough to be able to score 2 goals (even against Dale's defense, because Brand is a a solid goalie if he had better help from his defense). This means that Dale can push for a draw, but if Rohan couldn't muster a goal, I don't think even the mighty Smaug can.

Gelion wins 1-0.

Eithel Sirion vs. Rohan
Eithel Sirion has pretty much wrapped up 1st place, they would need to completely tank the match to lose it. Rohan will be needing a win to jump Gelion in the standings. Simple, Rohan will come to win, Eithel Sirion will come to not tank away first and keep it close, so it has the makings of a potential upset. However, if Eithel Sirion does lose, it won't mean anything towards their chances of having a deep run in the playoffs. Whethey they get Numenor or Rivendell in the playoffs is yet to be decided, but whoever it is will make for a great Round of 16 match.

Eithel Sirion wins 2-1.