[Nogrod]

Reading instruction into the stats: After the team's name there are:
* the goal difference (scored - allowed)
* points gathered from the group phase
* total shots made (on target) - total shots allowed (on target)
* the goalie's saving percentage

A1 Vinyamar – H2 Dol Guldur
Vinyamar 5-1 7 33(16) – 19(8) 87,5%
Dol Guldur 8-8 6 43(25) – 45(24) 66,7%

Dol Guldur, one of the most attacking and most efficient teams of the tournament is facing Vinyamar which has the best defence with Rôg, one of the best goalies so far. So a thriller? It is clear Vinyamar hasn’t yet faced a team of Dol Guldur’s caliber and thus the stats might be a bit misleading. But sure it will not be a walk in the park to Dol Guldur either. The longer the Ulmo led defences can hold against the tidalwave (sic!) of the Witch King, Bolg and Khamûl the better chances they will have. Even if Dol Guldur defences have been quite vulnerable when looked at the statistics (actually one of the worst) one needs to remember they have been playing against teams like Tirion and Havens (compared to Ithilien and Beleriand faced by Vinyamar). So especially Penlod and Tuor need to step up their game if they wish to score. A big question also is whether Oropher can rise to the occasion. Thus far he has been a bit insecure and has the worst saving percentage of the qualified teams.

The AKM odds: Vinyamar 40% - Dol Guldur 60%

B1 BarrowDowns – G2 Gondor
B-Downs 8-4 7 41(21) – 25(14) 71,4%
Gondor 4-2 7 33(15) – 36(15) 86,7%

The Barrow-Downs really knows how to score and Romendacil of Gondor how to deny the efforts of the opposing team. So on the first look it seems like a game of BD forwards (and attacking midfield) against Romendacil. And a lot will depend on the outcome of that fight. Thus far Romendacil has let in one shot from 7-8 shots against him (Gondor has allowed five shots on target per game thus far), but the BD has needed less than three shots on target to score (and they’ve produced seven shots on goal per game on average). A factor against Gondor might be that they have gained their defensive stats against teams like Wold and Doriath, but to be fair one needs to add that BD’s former opposition of Breeland and Gorgoroth aren’t exactly the prime defending teams either. So there clearly is some air in both stats. Gondor’s draw with Gondolin (even if the outcome of the match was insignificant to both teams) is something on behalf of Gondor defences though. Eomerwarg’s mood is also a factor: when he plays it cool he can take practically every shot but when he has a bad day even easy shots may go in. On the other side Eldacar and Mardil need to find a new gear if Gondor wishes to win for one doesn’t win BD with one goal and it’s hard to see the BD to settle with anything less than two…

The AKM odds: BarrowDowns 70% - Gondor 30%



C1 Mithrim – F2 Bywater
Mithrim 8-1 9 45(25) – 21(8) 87,5%
Bywater 4-3 4 25(13) – 32(15) 80%

Unless Gandalf and Saruman start to use magic – and are allowed to do that – there should be no question about the winner of this match. The cynics say Bywater got this far only with the help of team Valimar who decided to win them only 1-0 and who then outscored Thangorodrim just enough to kick them out of the tournament and thus made Bywater to qualify. But in a game against Mithrim the Valar have no say – and Mithrim clearly is one of the safest bets to reach the finals (playing in this easier side as they are). Bywater is not a bad team and Cotton has stepped up her level as the tournament has gotten further. But looking at the power in the front of Mithrim’s attack with Húrin, Beleg and Túrin, or the defence organised by brothers Curufin and Celegorm, or the goal tended by Huan… it’s hard to see Bywater shaking the odds. And as said earlier, it’s also hard to see team Mithrim falling victim to vanity or pride, especially in a play-off situation.

The AKM odds: Mithrim 95% - Bywater 5%

D1 Eithel Sirion – E2 Numenor
Eithel Sirion 7-1 9 42(22) – 22(10) 90%
Numenor 3-2 4 39(19) – 26(11) 81,8%

This is one of the hardest matches to predict. Eithel Sirion was impressive in the friendlies (they beat Mithrim and Barad Dûr!) and they simply packed their group. But what is the worth of those friendlies now as the teams play it for real? How much does it tell of a team that they can beat teams like Dale, Rohan and Gelion? On the other hand it is clear Numenor has a scoring problem and enough has been talked about it. But they have been getting into shape during the tournament and their last game against the tough Utumno team coud be said to have given one a glimpse of what the team is cabable of, not to say that experience says one should never underestimate a Numenorian team as they seem to rise their level the higher the stakes are. Balancing the stats somewhat actually makes the quite even stats to look almost better for Numenor, except for the scoring-issue. But the great friendlies for Eithel Sirion also do count even if one can’t take them just like they are.

The AKM odds: Eithel Sirion 60% - Numenor 40%




E1 Utumno – D2 Gelion
Utumno 6-0 9 45(21) – 27(10) 100%
Gelion 3-3 4 24(11) – 30(13) 76,9%

Utumno boasts one of the most aggressive offence of the tournament and possibly the best goalie so far, not to mention that their defences have been one of the best overall to keep the shots out of the mark. And on top of mighty Melkor they have the sensational Tilion up front. Gelion in it’s part has won Rohan 1-0 and drawn with Dale 1-1. Gelion’s most remarkable feat has thus far being losing only 1-2 to Eithel Sirion, but that in the end reveals the whole problem with Gelion: they don’t score. Beren has scored twice but he carries the burden too much alone. Not that Utumno would have the most spread out scorer-line either, but as long as Tilion keeps up scoring more than one goal per game there should be no problem – and many commentators feel it’s just a question of time when Melkor, Gothmog, Tevildo and Thuringwethil start delivering alongside Tilion. If that was to happen Gelion would not have even a theoretical chance. And even without a massive awakening Utumno has good chances to score as Dior actually isn’t even near the best goalies around (76,9%). But the ball is round and if Gelion manages to frustrate Utumno’s game – and Tilion doesn’t deliver while no one else is able to jump into his shoes… well then Gelion has a chance. But it is a slight one.

The AKM odds: Utumno 90% - Gelion 10%

F1 Valimar – C2 Norbury
Valimar 7-2 9 39(20) – 27(13) 84,6%
Norbury 4-4 4 28(13) – 35(18) 77,8%

If the Mithrim – Bywater game seems like a predetermined one, then here is the second one where the outcome looks like more or less decided already. It could be said that group F probably wasn’t that tough a group some thought beforehand and thus Valimar wouldn’t be that sovereign a team, but then again Norbury’s barely leaving Nargothrond and Pelennor behind is not such a feat either. And looking at the possibilities to score: Norbury seems to have their game more or less solely in the feet of Araphor (2+0) and Malbeth (1+1), whereas Valimar has on top Eönwe (3+1), Arien (2+2), Tulkas (2+0), Varda (0+2) … Now the only chance Norbury could have is the much speculated possibility that Valimar is playing something like “a nice game” against all teams whose players they appreciate (and Norbury could be one of those) while playing with full swing against baddies. Now if it where that way there is a minuscule chance they let Norbury play even or just one goal behind to the late stages and then Norbury could capitalise. But it looks like a far-fetched scenario indeed. Being considerate to goodies is one thing and playing stupidly is another.

The AKM odds: Valimar 95% - Norbury 5%



G1 Gondolin – B2 Barad Dûr
Gondolin 6-1 7 41(20) – 23(9) 88,9%
Barad Dur 8-5 7 39(21) – 40(20) 75%

This must be one of the highlights of the first qualifying round – and one of the hardest to assess. The problem with Barad Dûr is clearly the defence: they let the opponents to shoot a lot (twice as many shots in the group-phase than Gondolin) and the Mouth isn’t at the level of a final-winning goalie unlike Huor who could be even that. But Barad Dûr counts on overscoring their opponents, and they sure have scored! Even if BD and Gondolin have shot more or less the equal numbers (both overall and on target) in the first three matches Barad Dûr’s efficiency in scoring is just on a class of it’s own. Their shooting efficiency is the only one over 20% in the whole tournament. The attacking quartet Elendil, Gil-Galad, Isildur and Sauron are a force in their own right and a nightmare to any defence. Also group B was a shooting gallery only topped by group H, so BD’s defensive stats may appear worse than they actually are. But then again Gondolin has been a solid side throughout the tournament: the defence led by Thorondor is one of the tightest of the whole tournament, especially when it comes to allowing shots on goal, Glorfindel and Echtelion can both defend and score, and the trio Fingolfin, Aredhel and Maeglin is a threat to any defence (although one must admit especially Maeglin has underperformed thus far), not to re-mention the grand goal-keeping by Huor. It is basically too hard to call.

The AKM odds: Gondolin 50% - Barad Dûr 50%

H1 Tirion – A2 Aman
Tirion 11-5 9 56(29) – 37(19) 73,7%
Aman 4-2 7 31(17) – 27(12) 83,3%

Unless Ar Pharazôn really starts performing miracles, maybe bringing Oromë and Finarfin with him, then it will be good-bye to the Aman team. And even in that case Nienna and her Turgon led Valier defence will face the fiercest hurricane they have met thus far. Playing against Ithilien, Beleriand and Vinyamar and getting through as the second team with 4-2 goal difference is from such a different planet than winning sovereignly a group with Dol Guldur, Havens and Minas Anor and ending up with a goal difference of 11-5! In Aman’s group A the total number of shots made in all six games was 113. In group H of Tirion it was 171! So Tirion has been in tight games, in the “group of death” so to speak, and brought it home securely, Aman has been in the probably weakest group of all and survived the second. And the greatest fear for Aman sure is the offensive line up of Tirion: Nerdanel (2+4), Miriel (3+2), Finwë (3+2), Fëanor (2+2) … beat that! Aman will sure give a fight and one never knows about the Valar so therefore the AKM will not offer 100-0 odds.

The AKM odds: Tirion 95% - Aman 5%


An AKM disclaimer.

The stats only tell how a team has fared against the teams in it’s group and the groups might have been very different in stature compared to each other. But it is also noteworthy that all the specualtion over the relative merits of different groups over each other really are just speculation. The AKM has tried to take that into account but will not compensate to any gambler betting on the games following the AKM’s analysis.