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Boromir88 · 05-09-2010, 03:39 AM

The playoffs are now here, is there anything better? Round 3 was rather a tale of two stories for me. The first story, for groups A-D I was dead on about 13 of the 16 team goals! Then comes groups E-H, which was an utter mess, especially due to Thangorodrim and Havens being eliminated. What can ya do?

What TTN is bringing to their loyal followers this week...power rankings for the 16 playoff teams, as well as a preview and predictions for all the matches. We also have a new "Giants" and "slayers" feature. Lot to do, let's get to it!

Giants (G)- It was rather easy picking the giants out. To qualify you had to be a group winner, but simply being a group winner does not make you a Giant. TTN thinks there are 6 Giants (the 5 teams who picked up the full 9 points in their respective groups, plus the best ranked 7 point team). You might argue this is too many, as afterall only 4 teams make it to the semis, so how are there 6 Giants? There are legitimately 6 teams which impressed us so much, we would not be shocked if any combination of 4 got to the semis.

Slayers (s) - These were a little harder to identify. The basic qualification was you had to be a 2nd place finisher. However, just like with the giants, we would not identify all teams who finished 2nd as a potential slayer. We gathered all possible statistics to figure out which of the "little guys" had good potential to knock down a Goliath. We found 5.

Now for the power rankings, which is simply a way to look at how the 16 playoff teams stack up against eachother. But before the actual rankings, here are the details to the method.

Teams were rated on a scale of 1-5 in these 3 categories:
1. Offense: a combination of goals, total shots, shots on target, and scoring percentage.
2. Defense: total shots a defense allowed, and shots on target allowed
3. Goal keeping: Keepers save percentage.

Goal keeping was a late factor added, because when looking at all the statistics, we noticed some teams had great defenses that allowed a low amount of shots, but had an average GK, and other defenses gave up a lot of shots but had GK who were saving everything! The fact is, great (or poor) goal keepers can have a major impact on the outcome of games, so we thought it needed to be a separate category from defense.

Having made this decision, when crunching all the numbers, they favored the defensive teams. I believed this formula:

Offense + Defense + Goal keeping = overall

Skewed the results too much and created an unfair bias. So instead I went with this formula:

Offense + ((Defense + Goal keeping) / 2) = overall

Thus the Power Rankings still favor teams oriented on good defense, but not nearly as skewed as the first formula. And honestly, I am fine with this bias towards good defense, you know the saying...Great defense wins championships.

POWER RANKINGS

16. Gelion
-OFF: 1.5 / FW- Beren (8)
-DEF: 3 / *DF- Luthien (9)
-GK: 3 / Dior- 76.9%
-OVR: 4.5
Gelion's feel good story about making the playoffs will quickly come crashing to an end. They didn't get here by luck, it was good team defense and work ethic, but you can see from the stats just look quite average compared to the 15 remaining teams. Utumno should get an easy victory, but even if Gelion was playing someone else they'd still be heavy underdogs.

15. Norbury (s)
-OFF: 2.5 / FW- Araphor, *MF- Malbeth (8)
-DEF: 2 / DF- Amlaith (6)
-GK: 3 / Arvedui- 77.9%
-OVR: 5
The biggest argument I found for Norbury being a slayer is their match against Mithrim. They did lose that match 2-1, but if you have to like their consistancy. They ranged from 8 to 11 scoring opportunities in their 3 matches, and got a goal in each. This includes a goal against Mithrim who is without question a Top 3 defense (Valimar is good but not one of the other 2). They will get their 8-11 chances again. And do you really think Valimar will go on a 4-goal rampage against Norbury? I don't, not only because Valimar won't be inspired to destroy them like Thangorodrim, but Norbury is simply a better defense. This is why they're in and Thangorodrim's not.

14. Gondor (s)
-OFF: 2 / FW- Eldacar (11)
-DEF: 2.5 / DF- Folcred, Fastred (8)
-GK: 4 / Romendacil- 87.8%
-OVR: 5.25
When you have a GK performing like Romendacil and a team that every game, no matter the foe, matches their opponents numbers, there is no question you're a slayer. The biggest weakness is the defense does allow quite a few too many shots, and so if Romendacil doesn't keep up his stellar save % any game could turn into a route. However, as stated previously for as many shots as their defense allows, their offense matches in production. This means they keep games close and can easily win. They face the Barrow-Downs in Round 1, who has not been identified as a Giant, but all I mean is IF Gondor were to face one of the Giants they would have a good chance at getting the upset.

13. Numenor (s)
-OFF: 1.5 / FW- Ar Adunakhor (7)
-DEF: 4 / **DF- Tar Telperien (11)
-GK: 3.5 / *Tar Atanamir- 81.8%
-OVR: 5.25
Of all the slayers Numenor probably has the best potential. Tar Telperien's got that defense working just as effective as last year, there is a slight drop in Tar Atanamir's saves, but he's a playoff experienced championship GK, end of story. They were only able to get 3 goals in 3 games, and have a terrible scoring percentage of 7.7%. But not so hasty I say! They still put together and impressive 39 shots, and look at the other GK's in their group. Ungoliant (who has been THE best up to this point) and Elrond who just ridiculously saved everything. It's a great sign they are still getting a high amount of shots, so perhaps facing a different GK is just what the doctor ordered. Now, Maglor for Eithel Sirion saved 9/10, but can he keep that up against the mighty Numenoreans?

12. Aman
-OFF: 2 / FW- Ar Pharazon (11)
-DEF: 3.5 / *DF- Turgon (8)
-GK: 4 / Nienna- 83.3%
-OVR: 5.75
Aman's got a good defense, but to be honest it's not great and to stop Tirion you have to be great. I, unlike AKMs major lovefest with Tirion, think their offense can be stopped, but it won't be by Aman. Here's what I mean by good but not great. Vinyamar played in the same group, their defense allowed 19 shots (8 on target), how did Aman's compare? 27(12), That's a significant difference and they played the same teams. Aman also doesn't have the fire power to get into a scoring match with Tirion, slayers Aman are not.

11. Dol Guldur
-OFF: 4.5 / *FW- Witch King (18)
-DEF: 1 / DF- Thrain (0)
-GK: 1.5 / Oropher- 66.7%
-OVR: 5.75
Not slayers either and opposite of the reasons Aman are not. Dol Guldur's defense is just too bad, and I'm not understanding AKM's boy crush on these types of teams. Attercop and Tomnoddy picked up 2 yellows each, they can't stop anyone from shooting. When they actually do a half-way decent job Oropher only saves 2/3rds! If you notice too, in their matches, they usually wind up behind and the Witch-King has to come storming back. Vinyamar managed a respectable 5 goals in a very tough defensive group. If they get down a few goals again, do you really think the Witch-King can storm back against one of the Top 3 defensive teams? Answer is no.

10. Bywater (s)
-OFF: 2.5 / **MF- Gandalf, Maggot (9)
-DEF: 3 / **DF- Shadowfax (6)
-GK: 3.5 / Cotton- 80.0%
-OVR: 5.75
Bywater is one of the slayers, just too bad their playoff match is against the best team of the first 3 rounds. Mithrim's defense is virtually identical to Vinyamar's. We're not going to argue which one is actually better, but whoever you put at #1 the other is #2. Bywater only mustered 4 goals but have a high scoring percentage of 16%, backed by a solid defense and a surprisingly good GK. People might whine they are lucky to be here and it should be Thangorodrim if it wasn't for Valimar's deus ex vendetta. The facts are these though, Bywater got the draw against Thangorodrim. If Thangorodrim wants to complain about being cheated they should have taken care of business against Bywater, they did not. It's just very unfortunate Bywater's got to take on Mithrim. If they were actually against one of the other giants, I'd like their chances better.
09. Barad-Dur (s)
-OFF: 5 / **FW- Sauron (14)
-DEF: 1.5 / DF- Anarion (5)
-GK: 2.5 / The Mouth- 75.0%
-OVR: 7
I questioned whether Barad-dur should qualify as a slayer, because their numbers are near even with the Barrow-Downs. I mean you could seriously flip-flop the #8 and #9 teams, the reason Barrow-Downs were group winners is they gave up 1 fewer goal. However, Barad Dur fit the qualifications, they finished 2nd, and are not seen as a semi-finalist. You'll notice I gave a 5 to both Tirion and Barad-dur in offense. How can this be when Tirion scored 3 more goals? Barad-Dur's 20.5% scoring is how, that's the best percentage. With Sauron these bad boys can't be counted out, and with their leaky defense the match against Gondolin should be a high scoring thriller.

08. Barrow-Downs
-OFF: 4.5 / FW- Nogrod (15)
-DEF: 3.5 / DF- Skip (10)
-GK: 2 / Eomerwarg- 71.4%
-OVR: 7.25
In one of the best offensive groups Barrow-Downs defense performend leagues ahead of the other teams in their group. I mean take a look at Barad Dur's numbers giving up 40(20), compared to the Barrow Downs' 25(14). That's a staggering difference, as this defense is just chokes off all space. The big problem...Eomerwarg who out of the 16 goal keepers, ranks 15th. With how the defense in front of him is playing, he's got to start saving more. If he does The Barrow-Downs are capable of beating anyone.

07. Tirion (G)
-OFF: 5 / *MF- Nerdanel (21)
-DEF: 2 / DF- Indis (2)
-GK: 2.5 / Aule- 73.7%
-OVR: 7.25
By far the best offensive team and there are 4 or 5 different players who can score a goal at any minute. However, when you crunch all their numbers, we see the same problem from previous years, defense is just not good enough, and Aule hasn't been anything to brag about either. This Aman match will be interesting, for while I don't think Aman's defense is good enough to shut down Tirion, they certainly are better than any of the ones Tirion faced in Group H. I'll say this, if Tirion scores 4 goals, I will admit to under-valueing their offensive power, but if they get 2, I want AKM to print I'm 100% correct about how Tirion's attack can be slowed down, and even stopped if, up against a quality defense. (If they score 3, I'll consider it a push and the jury will still be out

)

06. Vinyamar
-OFF: 3 / MF- Idril (10)
-DEF: 5 / **DF- Ulmo (12)
-GK: 4.5 / Rog- 87.5%
-OVR: 7.75
A respectively efficient offense, that scored 5 goals in a defensive group, add to that the best defense and you have a very dangerous and very strong team. This is something I will agree with AKM about, if you start diving into arguments over which groups tougher than others and trying to factor that into evaluating the stats, you will just drive yourself crazy. Here's the deal, Vinyamar's defense was by far the best of Group A, and thus arguably the best in the tournament. And they averaged 1.67 goals in that group, 'nuff said. Do not underestimate them.

05. Gondolin (G)
-OFF: 3.5 / MF- Glorfindel (10)
-DEF: 4.5 / *Thorondor (12)
-GK: 4.5 / Huor- 88.9%
-OVR: 8
Before anyone goes up in arms over how can Gondolin be a giant when they didn't even sweep their group and how can they be above Tirion, here's how. Every single player on Gondolin is just as good on offense as they are on defense, they play both extremely well. Defensively they were right behind Vinyamar and Mithrim, allowing 23 (9) shots. Huor is a proven playoff GK, making big saves to get Dor Lomin to the quater-final round last year. And they are similar to Tirion offensively, that is you see a great spread of production from top to bottom. At some point every FW or MF contributed with a goal or assist.

04. Valimar (G)
-OFF: 4 / MF- Arien (18)
-DEF: 4 / **DF- Manwe (11)
-GK: 4 / *Namo- 86.7%
-OVR: 8
Biggest weakness is they are goal bingers. They want to annhilate the baddies, but against goodies they aren't inspired. The game against Norbury will be tight, and because of that they could very well lose, because Norbury will not play intimidated against the Valar. It's interesting that the potential to face Utumno in the next round might provide Valimar with enough umph to want to beat Norbury in Round 1. Then they can knock out the only remaining evil-doers of Utumno and blow their semi-final match. However their laissez-faire attitude to let the good guys defeat big bad evil on their own may just provide the Norbury slayers an opportunity at the upset.

03. Utumno (G)
-OFF: 3.5 / FW- Tilion (18)
-DEF: 4.5 / **DF- Balrog 4 (12)
-GK: 5 / *Ungoliant- 100%
-OVR: 8.25
An intimidatingly strong Balrog defense, plus the best goalie thus far, Utumno looks like they will be one of the teams to beat. And don't worry too much about that small scoring % of 13.3%. They were up against 2 great goal keepers in that group, as well as some tough defenses. And despite that they managed 45 total shots, that was only behind Tirion's 56. With how many chances they create, the goals will come a plenty.

02. Eithel Sirion (G)
-OFF: 4 / *FW- Maedhros (15)
-DEF: 4.5 / DF- Aegnor (12)
-GK: 4.5 / Maglor- 90%
-OVR: 8.5
I was surprised that Eithel Sirion, statistically ended up as the 2nd best team. But here's the deal, they scored 7 goals and only allowed 1. They were a top-5 defense and Maglor was the 2nd best GK. We'll see if he can keep that up against sturdier FWs. He did great against the 'lesser' Men and Elves that he saw in Group D, the greater Numenoreans should be a stiffer test. Also, their scoring is not as spread out as other teams. You have Maedhras, Fingon, and Hador doing the brunt of the work on offense. Can't find too much to complain when you have 3 players like that who can score, but past them, there's not much.

01. Mithrim (G)
-OFF: 4 / **FW- Turin (18)
-DEF: 5 / *DF- Celegorm (15)
-GK: 4.5 / **Huan- 87.5%
-OVR: 8.75
Above and beyond the best team, and the clear favorites to win it all right now. All around they played leagues above everyone else. Of all the stats I factored into the power rankings, Mithrim was the only team who was Top 5 in ALL OF THEM...oh wait, they ranked 6th best in scoring percentage, my mistake on that one. One potential problem I see, and this is why they only rate a 4 in offense (despite being tied for 2nd most goals). They scored 4 of those goals against Pelennor, while only 2-each against the much better organized defenses of Nargothrond and Norbury. However, winning every match 2-0, 2-1 is still winning.

PREDICTIONS:

Vinyamar 2 - 1 Dol Guldur
Barrow Downs 2 - 2 Gondor (BD wins in shoot out. This is purely to brag if I get it right

)
Mithrim 2 - 0 Bywater
Eithel Sirion 1 - 2 Numenor
Utumno 2 - 0 Gelion
Valimar 1 - 2 Norbury (Norbury wins in overtime)
Gondolin 4 - 2 Barad Dur
Tirion 2 - 1 Aman

05-09-2010, 03:39 AM	#1
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,521	TTN - Playoff Preview The playoffs are now here, is there anything better? Round 3 was rather a tale of two stories for me. The first story, for groups A-D I was dead on about 13 of the 16 team goals! Then comes groups E-H, which was an utter mess, especially due to Thangorodrim and Havens being eliminated. What can ya do? What TTN is bringing to their loyal followers this week...power rankings for the 16 playoff teams, as well as a preview and predictions for all the matches. We also have a new "Giants" and "slayers" feature. Lot to do, let's get to it! Giants (G)- It was rather easy picking the giants out. To qualify you had to be a group winner, but simply being a group winner does not make you a Giant. TTN thinks there are 6 Giants (the 5 teams who picked up the full 9 points in their respective groups, plus the best ranked 7 point team). You might argue this is too many, as afterall only 4 teams make it to the semis, so how are there 6 Giants? There are legitimately 6 teams which impressed us so much, we would not be shocked if any combination of 4 got to the semis. Slayers (s) - These were a little harder to identify. The basic qualification was you had to be a 2nd place finisher. However, just like with the giants, we would not identify all teams who finished 2nd as a potential slayer. We gathered all possible statistics to figure out which of the "little guys" had good potential to knock down a Goliath. We found 5. Now for the power rankings, which is simply a way to look at how the 16 playoff teams stack up against eachother. But before the actual rankings, here are the details to the method. Teams were rated on a scale of 1-5 in these 3 categories: 1. Offense: a combination of goals, total shots, shots on target, and scoring percentage. 2. Defense: total shots a defense allowed, and shots on target allowed 3. Goal keeping: Keepers save percentage. Goal keeping was a late factor added, because when looking at all the statistics, we noticed some teams had great defenses that allowed a low amount of shots, but had an average GK, and other defenses gave up a lot of shots but had GK who were saving everything! The fact is, great (or poor) goal keepers can have a major impact on the outcome of games, so we thought it needed to be a separate category from defense. Having made this decision, when crunching all the numbers, they favored the defensive teams. I believed this formula: Offense + Defense + Goal keeping = overall Skewed the results too much and created an unfair bias. So instead I went with this formula: Offense + ((Defense + Goal keeping) / 2) = overall Thus the Power Rankings still favor teams oriented on good defense, but not nearly as skewed as the first formula. And honestly, I am fine with this bias towards good defense, you know the saying...Great defense wins championships. POWER RANKINGS 16. Gelion -OFF: 1.5 / FW- Beren (8) -DEF: 3 / DF- Luthien (9) -GK: 3 / Dior- 76.9% -OVR: 4.5 Gelion's feel good story about making the playoffs will quickly come crashing to an end. They didn't get here by luck, it was good team defense and work ethic, but you can see from the stats just look quite average compared to the 15 remaining teams. Utumno should get an easy victory, but even if Gelion was playing someone else they'd still be heavy underdogs. 15. Norbury (s)* -OFF: 2.5 / FW- Araphor, MF- Malbeth (8) -DEF: 2 / DF- Amlaith (6) -GK: 3 / Arvedui- 77.9% -OVR: 5 The biggest argument I found for Norbury being a slayer is their match against Mithrim. They did lose that match 2-1, but if you have to like their consistancy. They ranged from 8 to 11 scoring opportunities in their 3 matches, and got a goal in each. This includes a goal against Mithrim who is without question a Top 3 defense (Valimar is good but not one of the other 2). They will get their 8-11 chances again. And do you really think Valimar will go on a 4-goal rampage against Norbury? I don't, not only because Valimar won't be inspired to destroy them like Thangorodrim, but Norbury is simply a better defense. This is why they're in and Thangorodrim's not. 14. Gondor (s)* -OFF: 2 / FW- Eldacar (11) -DEF: 2.5 / DF- Folcred, Fastred (8) -GK: 4 / Romendacil- 87.8% -OVR: 5.25 When you have a GK performing like Romendacil and a team that every game, no matter the foe, matches their opponents numbers, there is no question you're a slayer. The biggest weakness is the defense does allow quite a few too many shots, and so if Romendacil doesn't keep up his stellar save % any game could turn into a route. However, as stated previously for as many shots as their defense allows, their offense matches in production. This means they keep games close and can easily win. They face the Barrow-Downs in Round 1, who has not been identified as a Giant, but all I mean is IF Gondor were to face one of the Giants they would have a good chance at getting the upset. 13. Numenor (s) -OFF: 1.5 / FW- Ar Adunakhor (7) -DEF: 4 / *DF- Tar Telperien (11) -GK: 3.5 / Tar Atanamir- 81.8% -OVR: 5.25 Of all the slayers Numenor probably has the best potential. Tar Telperien's got that defense working just as effective as last year, there is a slight drop in Tar Atanamir's saves, but he's a playoff experienced championship GK, end of story. They were only able to get 3 goals in 3 games, and have a terrible scoring percentage of 7.7%. But not so hasty I say! They still put together and impressive 39 shots, and look at the other GK's in their group. Ungoliant (who has been THE best up to this point) and Elrond who just ridiculously saved everything. It's a great sign they are still getting a high amount of shots, so perhaps facing a different GK is just what the doctor ordered. Now, Maglor for Eithel Sirion saved 9/10, but can he keep that up against the mighty Numenoreans? 12. Aman -OFF: 2 / FW- Ar Pharazon (11) -DEF: 3.5 / DF- Turgon (8) -GK: 4 / Nienna- 83.3% -OVR: 5.75 Aman's got a good defense, but to be honest it's not great and to stop Tirion you have to be great. I, unlike AKMs major lovefest with Tirion, think their offense can be stopped, but it won't be by Aman. Here's what I mean by good but not great. Vinyamar played in the same group, their defense allowed 19 shots (8 on target), how did Aman's compare? 27(12), That's a significant difference and they played the same teams. Aman also doesn't have the fire power to get into a scoring match with Tirion, slayers Aman are not. 11. Dol Guldur* -OFF: 4.5 / FW- Witch King (18) -DEF: 1 / DF- Thrain (0) -GK: 1.5 / Oropher- 66.7% -OVR: 5.75 Not slayers either and opposite of the reasons Aman are not. Dol Guldur's defense is just too bad, and I'm not understanding AKM's boy crush on these types of teams. Attercop and Tomnoddy picked up 2 yellows each, they can't stop anyone from shooting. When they actually do a half-way decent job Oropher only saves 2/3rds! If you notice too, in their matches, they usually wind up behind and the Witch-King has to come storming back. Vinyamar managed a respectable 5 goals in a very tough defensive group. If they get down a few goals again, do you really think the Witch-King can storm back against one of the Top 3 defensive teams? Answer is no. 10. Bywater (s)* -OFF: 2.5 / MF- Gandalf, Maggot (9) -DEF: 3 / DF- Shadowfax (6) -GK: 3.5 / Cotton- 80.0% -OVR: 5.75 Bywater is one of the slayers, just too bad their playoff match is against the best team of the first 3 rounds. Mithrim's defense is virtually identical to Vinyamar's. We're not going to argue which one is actually better, but whoever you put at #1 the other is #2. Bywater only mustered 4 goals but have a high scoring percentage of 16%, backed by a solid defense and a surprisingly good GK. People might whine they are lucky to be here and it should be Thangorodrim if it wasn't for Valimar's deus ex vendetta. The facts are these though, Bywater got the draw against Thangorodrim. If Thangorodrim wants to complain about being cheated they should have taken care of business against Bywater, they did not. It's just very unfortunate Bywater's got to take on Mithrim. If they were actually against one of the other giants, I'd like their chances better. 09. Barad-Dur (s) -OFF: 5 / FW- Sauron (14) -DEF: 1.5 / DF- Anarion (5) -GK: 2.5 / The Mouth- 75.0% -OVR: 7 I questioned whether Barad-dur should qualify as a slayer, because their numbers are near even with the Barrow-Downs. I mean you could seriously flip-flop the #8 and #9 teams, the reason Barrow-Downs were group winners is they gave up 1 fewer goal. However, Barad Dur fit the qualifications, they finished 2nd, and are not seen as a semi-finalist. You'll notice I gave a 5 to both Tirion and Barad-dur in offense. How can this be when Tirion scored 3 more goals? Barad-Dur's 20.5% scoring is how, that's the best percentage. With Sauron these bad boys can't be counted out, and with their leaky defense the match against Gondolin should be a high scoring thriller. 08. Barrow-Downs -OFF: 4.5 / FW- Nogrod (15) -DEF: 3.5 / DF- Skip (10) -GK: 2 / Eomerwarg- 71.4% -OVR: 7.25 In one of the best offensive groups Barrow-Downs defense performend leagues ahead of the other teams in their group. I mean take a look at Barad Dur's numbers giving up 40(20), compared to the Barrow Downs' 25(14). That's a staggering difference, as this defense is just chokes off all space. The big problem...Eomerwarg who out of the 16 goal keepers, ranks 15th. With how the defense in front of him is playing, he's got to start saving more. If he does The Barrow-Downs are capable of beating anyone. 07. Tirion (G)** -OFF: 5 / MF- Nerdanel (21) -DEF: 2 / DF- Indis (2) -GK: 2.5 / Aule- 73.7% -OVR: 7.25 By far the best offensive team and there are 4 or 5 different players who can score a goal at any minute. However, when you crunch all their numbers, we see the same problem from previous years, defense is just not good enough, and Aule hasn't been anything to brag about either. This Aman match will be interesting, for while I don't think Aman's defense is good enough to shut down Tirion, they certainly are better than any of the ones Tirion faced in Group H. I'll say this, if Tirion scores 4 goals, I will admit to under-valueing their offensive power, but if they get 2, I want AKM to print I'm 100% correct about how Tirion's attack can be slowed down, and even stopped if, up against a quality defense. (If they score 3, I'll consider it a push and the jury will still be out ) 06. Vinyamar* -OFF: 3 / MF- Idril (10) -DEF: 5 / DF- Ulmo (12) -GK: 4.5 / Rog- 87.5% -OVR: 7.75 A respectively efficient offense, that scored 5 goals in a defensive group, add to that the best defense and you have a very dangerous and very strong team. This is something I will agree with AKM about, if you start diving into arguments over which groups tougher than others and trying to factor that into evaluating the stats, you will just drive yourself crazy. Here's the deal, Vinyamar's defense was by far the best of Group A, and thus arguably the best in the tournament. And they averaged 1.67 goals in that group, 'nuff said. Do not underestimate them. 05. Gondolin (G)** -OFF: 3.5 / MF- Glorfindel (10) -DEF: 4.5 / Thorondor (12) -GK: 4.5 / Huor- 88.9% -OVR: 8 Before anyone goes up in arms over how can Gondolin be a giant when they didn't even sweep their group and how can they be above Tirion, here's how. Every single player on Gondolin is just as good on offense as they are on defense, they play both extremely well. Defensively they were right behind Vinyamar and Mithrim, allowing 23 (9) shots. Huor is a proven playoff GK, making big saves to get Dor Lomin to the quater-final round last year. And they are similar to Tirion offensively, that is you see a great spread of production from top to bottom. At some point every FW or MF contributed with a goal or assist. 04. Valimar (G)* -OFF: 4 / MF- Arien (18) -DEF: 4 / *DF- Manwe (11) -GK: 4 / Namo- 86.7% -OVR: 8 Biggest weakness is they are goal bingers. They want to annhilate the baddies, but against goodies they aren't inspired. The game against Norbury will be tight, and because of that they could very well lose, because Norbury will not play intimidated against the Valar. It's interesting that the potential to face Utumno in the next round might provide Valimar with enough umph to want to beat Norbury in Round 1. Then they can knock out the only remaining evil-doers of Utumno and blow their semi-final match. However their laissez-faire attitude to let the good guys defeat big bad evil on their own may just provide the Norbury slayers an opportunity at the upset. 03. Utumno (G) -OFF: 3.5 / FW- Tilion (18) -DEF: 4.5 / *DF- Balrog 4 (12) -GK: 5 / Ungoliant- 100% -OVR: 8.25 An intimidatingly strong Balrog defense, plus the best goalie thus far, Utumno looks like they will be one of the teams to beat. And don't worry too much about that small scoring % of 13.3%. They were up against 2 great goal keepers in that group, as well as some tough defenses. And despite that they managed 45 total shots, that was only behind Tirion's 56. With how many chances they create, the goals will come a plenty. 02. Eithel Sirion (G) -OFF: 4 / FW- Maedhros (15) -DEF: 4.5 / DF- Aegnor (12) -GK: 4.5 / Maglor- 90% -OVR: 8.5 I was surprised that Eithel Sirion, statistically ended up as the 2nd best team. But here's the deal, they scored 7 goals and only allowed 1. They were a top-5 defense and Maglor was the 2nd best GK. We'll see if he can keep that up against sturdier FWs. He did great against the 'lesser' Men and Elves that he saw in Group D, the greater Numenoreans should be a stiffer test. Also, their scoring is not as spread out as other teams. You have Maedhras, Fingon, and Hador doing the brunt of the work on offense. Can't find too much to complain when you have 3 players like that who can score, but past them, there's not much. 01. Mithrim (G)* -OFF: 4 / *FW- Turin (18) -DEF: 5 / DF- Celegorm (15) -GK: 4.5 / Huan- 87.5% -OVR: 8.75 Above and beyond the best team, and the clear favorites to win it all right now. All around they played leagues above everyone else. Of all the stats I factored into the power rankings, Mithrim was the only team who was Top 5 in ALL OF THEM...oh wait, they ranked 6th best in scoring percentage, my mistake on that one. One potential problem I see, and this is why they only rate a 4 in offense (despite being tied for 2nd most goals). They scored 4 of those goals against Pelennor, while only 2-each against the much better organized defenses of Nargothrond and Norbury. However, winning every match 2-0, 2-1 is still winning. PREDICTIONS: Vinyamar 2 - 1 Dol Guldur Barrow Downs 2 - 2 Gondor (BD wins in shoot out. This is purely to brag if I get it right ) Mithrim 2 - 0 Bywater Eithel Sirion 1 - 2 Numenor Utumno 2 - 0 Gelion Valimar 1 - 2 Norbury (Norbury wins in overtime) Gondolin 4 - 2 Barad Dur Tirion 2** - 1 Aman __________________ Fenris Penguin Last edited by Boromir88; 05-09-2010 at 03:46 AM.