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Nogrod · 05-29-2010, 04:29 PM

We here at the AKM have been looking through different stats and considering the fitness of the key players now as the stakes get higher. Especially we have been looking at the difference between the overall stats versus those of playing against sturdier opponents (the difference between the overall stats vs. the stats from the first play-off round & against the other team going through from the group phase).

Vinyamar – Barrow Downs

The AKM truly acknowledges the criticism made by the Two Towers Network for not taking Vinyamar’s defence seriously enough thus far. It is a solid one and a touch tougher than the BarrowDowns defence. Even if their stats do fall considerably when counting only the tougher matches they are the top of the tournament in defence save for Utumno.

But if Vinyamar looks better in defence then they have little to boast on offence. With Wilwa (3+2) aiding the veterans the phantom (1+4) and Nogrod (5+1) the BD looks clearly the more dangerous side. Their efficiency in scoring is one of the best in the tournament – but they should create more chances to score; only Norbury, Vinyamar and Numenor create less chances! To their relief Vinyamar creates even less scoring opportunities though.

An interesting question also is will Ulmo step up his game when it matters, like he did in the game against Dol Guldur – or can he outscore Nogrod who seems to be in flames scoring twice against Gondor in the first play-off round? And how many reserves the teams have to step in in time of need? On Vinyamar side Idril can surely perform, but especially Tuor and Penlod have been disappointments thus far. How will Fea perform? Or Nerwen? Will Sally find her gusto? Wilwa? the phantom?

Summa summarum: It is a tough game to call. The stats give the BD a slight edge but there are great chances the game ends 1-1 and then it will be a question of individual merit (or failure) to decide the game. Also on that the AKM turns towards the BD as slight favourites – unless the game is decided by a failure in goalkeeping, for there Rôg surely has shown much better quality than Eomerwarg.

Mithrim – Numenor

It is clear Mithrim is the favourite of this game as they tend to score twice the goals Numenor does while letting in the same amount. But there are a few ”buts” one should consider before making any bigger bets on the game.

First of all there is a surprising weakness in the Mithrim team and that is indeed Huan! He has more or less respectable overall saving percentage of 81,8%, but when looking at the tougher matches only the number comes quickly down to 71,4%!

Secondly there is the question of Turín. He has made 4+1 thus far but can be moody as was seen in the last game. So a lot depends on the humour of Turín no one can predict for certain in advance.

But then there is the fact that the Mithrim defence led by Curufin and Celegorm is just a superb one – and add to that the fact that Numenor is the worst offencive team still in the competition and you could start seeing why the scales will turn into Mithrim’s favour. And whatever the problems Mithrim might have with Turín, they have still Beleg and Hurín who can turn games themselves without the unfortunate son.

Summa summarum: Even if Numenor has stepped up their performance as the games have grown older it looks it would take a miracle for them to beat Mithrim. Numenor has a tough defence but it is far from the quality of last year whereas Mithrim boasts a wide range of scoring talent. So in the end it’s more or less maths… Numenor wil not create the chances to test the possibly unsecure Huan but Mithrim wil have chances enough to score once or twice. Mithrim wins 2-0 or 2-1.

Utumno -Norbury

It is clear that Norbury is the number one surprise this year: throwing Valimar out from the games is just a rare treat. It was talked before the tournament that Norbury might get better with their opponents being the sturdy northeners they are, but few would have guessed they would end up in the quarterfinals. So next target Utumno?

Without downplaying the great descendants of even greater men it is hard to see them beating Utumno. They will force Utumno to play it for real and Melkor will not have it easy this time. Gothmog’s waking-up in the last game promises good for the Utumno team – and if Tilion can come back with the drive he had in the first games… well then it is goodbye to Norbury how brave they ever are.

Really. No one thought they would beat Valimar but it was a possibility. But by all means Utumno looks ten times sharper this year than Valimar. Ungoliant has a clean sheet thus far and it remains to be seen whether Araphor can break that spell, but it looks clear he cannot score two goals which Utumno will probably make.

Summa summarum: Norbury gave spice to these games and they really made a difference but Utumno is just too big and ugly for them.

Gondolin – Tirion

Had it been any other team facing them on the quarterfinals the AKM would have wished team Tirion the best luck to the final. But of all teams Gondolin will be the nightmare to Tirion and the game will be a real treat. There’s no saying who will win this one.

Tirion’s weaknesses can be summed up in three words: defence, defence, defence. Thus far they have outscored all their opponents, but now they face a team that can both defend and score. Tirion’s strength can be summed up in four words: Feänor (4+3), Finwë (4+3), Miriel (4+2) and Nerdanel (2+4).

Meanwhile back in the jungle Gondolin beat Barad Dûr 4-1 in the first play-off match coming back to their astonishing performances they made during the friendlies. So they too can score four goals in a game but unlike Tirion they always defend effectively: the difference in goals allowed between the two teams is astonishing indeed. But to be frank, it is also true that looking at Gondolin’s games against tougher teams Huor’s performance isn’t that spectacular anymore (even if it’s still better than Aulë’s).

Summa summarum: The AKM thinks both the teams should be in the semifinals but now it clearly is impossible: a great team will be relinguished after this game. The game will end either 1-1 or 2-2 and it will go on overtime. On overtime either team can win, but if it goes to the penalties the AKM predicts that Tirion’s phenomenal shooting capability will outdo any defect in Aulë’s goalkeeping. But it will be anybody’s call.

05-29-2010, 04:29 PM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	The AKM look at the quarterfinals. We here at the AKM have been looking through different stats and considering the fitness of the key players now as the stakes get higher. Especially we have been looking at the difference between the overall stats versus those of playing against sturdier opponents (the difference between the overall stats vs. the stats from the first play-off round & against the other team going through from the group phase). Vinyamar – Barrow Downs The AKM truly acknowledges the criticism made by the Two Towers Network for not taking Vinyamar’s defence seriously enough thus far. It is a solid one and a touch tougher than the BarrowDowns defence. Even if their stats do fall considerably when counting only the tougher matches they are the top of the tournament in defence save for Utumno. But if Vinyamar looks better in defence then they have little to boast on offence. With Wilwa (3+2) aiding the veterans the phantom (1+4) and Nogrod (5+1) the BD looks clearly the more dangerous side. Their efficiency in scoring is one of the best in the tournament – but they should create more chances to score; only Norbury, Vinyamar and Numenor create less chances! To their relief Vinyamar creates even less scoring opportunities though. An interesting question also is will Ulmo step up his game when it matters, like he did in the game against Dol Guldur – or can he outscore Nogrod who seems to be in flames scoring twice against Gondor in the first play-off round? And how many reserves the teams have to step in in time of need? On Vinyamar side Idril can surely perform, but especially Tuor and Penlod have been disappointments thus far. How will Fea perform? Or Nerwen? Will Sally find her gusto? Wilwa? the phantom? Summa summarum: It is a tough game to call. The stats give the BD a slight edge but there are great chances the game ends 1-1 and then it will be a question of individual merit (or failure) to decide the game. Also on that the AKM turns towards the BD as slight favourites – unless the game is decided by a failure in goalkeeping, for there Rôg surely has shown much better quality than Eomerwarg. Mithrim – Numenor It is clear Mithrim is the favourite of this game as they tend to score twice the goals Numenor does while letting in the same amount. But there are a few ”buts” one should consider before making any bigger bets on the game. First of all there is a surprising weakness in the Mithrim team and that is indeed Huan! He has more or less respectable overall saving percentage of 81,8%, but when looking at the tougher matches only the number comes quickly down to 71,4%! Secondly there is the question of Turín. He has made 4+1 thus far but can be moody as was seen in the last game. So a lot depends on the humour of Turín no one can predict for certain in advance. But then there is the fact that the Mithrim defence led by Curufin and Celegorm is just a superb one – and add to that the fact that Numenor is the worst offencive team still in the competition and you could start seeing why the scales will turn into Mithrim’s favour. And whatever the problems Mithrim might have with Turín, they have still Beleg and Hurín who can turn games themselves without the unfortunate son. Summa summarum: Even if Numenor has stepped up their performance as the games have grown older it looks it would take a miracle for them to beat Mithrim. Numenor has a tough defence but it is far from the quality of last year whereas Mithrim boasts a wide range of scoring talent. So in the end it’s more or less maths… Numenor wil not create the chances to test the possibly unsecure Huan but Mithrim wil have chances enough to score once or twice. Mithrim wins 2-0 or 2-1. Utumno -Norbury It is clear that Norbury is the number one surprise this year: throwing Valimar out from the games is just a rare treat. It was talked before the tournament that Norbury might get better with their opponents being the sturdy northeners they are, but few would have guessed they would end up in the quarterfinals. So next target Utumno? Without downplaying the great descendants of even greater men it is hard to see them beating Utumno. They will force Utumno to play it for real and Melkor will not have it easy this time. Gothmog’s waking-up in the last game promises good for the Utumno team – and if Tilion can come back with the drive he had in the first games… well then it is goodbye to Norbury how brave they ever are. Really. No one thought they would beat Valimar but it was a possibility. But by all means Utumno looks ten times sharper this year than Valimar. Ungoliant has a clean sheet thus far and it remains to be seen whether Araphor can break that spell, but it looks clear he cannot score two goals which Utumno will probably make. Summa summarum: Norbury gave spice to these games and they really made a difference but Utumno is just too big and ugly for them. Gondolin – Tirion Had it been any other team facing them on the quarterfinals the AKM would have wished team Tirion the best luck to the final. But of all teams Gondolin will be the nightmare to Tirion and the game will be a real treat. There’s no saying who will win this one. Tirion’s weaknesses can be summed up in three words: defence, defence, defence. Thus far they have outscored all their opponents, but now they face a team that can both defend and score. Tirion’s strength can be summed up in four words: Feänor (4+3), Finwë (4+3), Miriel (4+2) and Nerdanel (2+4). Meanwhile back in the jungle Gondolin beat Barad Dûr 4-1 in the first play-off match coming back to their astonishing performances they made during the friendlies. So they too can score four goals in a game but unlike Tirion they always defend effectively: the difference in goals allowed between the two teams is astonishing indeed. But to be frank, it is also true that looking at Gondolin’s games against tougher teams Huor’s performance isn’t that spectacular anymore (even if it’s still better than Aulë’s). Summa summarum: The AKM thinks both the teams should be in the semifinals but now it clearly is impossible: a great team will be relinguished after this game. The game will end either 1-1 or 2-2 and it will go on overtime. On overtime either team can win, but if it goes to the penalties the AKM predicts that Tirion’s phenomenal shooting capability will outdo any defect in Aulë’s goalkeeping. But it will be anybody’s call. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...