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That's an interesting interpretation, I'll have to look at the book, but you may be right.
One thing though, you say: "2. Valar (the world as it would be without the Children => Melkor still wins)"
The Valar bested Morgoth in every direct conflict because of their superior numbers and because he spent his spirit in strengthening and corrupting his servants, and also, the Valar were always afraid to strike(except that first time) for fear of hurting the children when they rent the earth. So it seems to me that the Valar would have triumphed in the end, and probably the sooner, if the children had never been. Especially since somewhere in the book it says something like: "but Morgoths lies were like seeds that bore dark fruit, even to the end of time". Which of course refers to him being basically the source of evil in Arda, so if the children had never been, one of his primary tools would never have existed.
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