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Old 11-04-2010, 09:25 AM   #484
Aganzir
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Shastanalysis

Shasta went quite consistently after Inzil and me since day 1 (his initial reason being BW confusion), and also didn't trust Pitch. He considered voting for either Glirdan or me and went for Glirdan in the end (mwahaha).

On day 2, he suggests the BW is someone who looked seerish, mentioning Nog as a potential candidate (which would "point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves," me being the most likely wolf in the bunch - later he says an Aganwolf doesn't make sense in the context of the theory which also casts doubt on the other three being wolves). He and Inzil argued about Eomer after Inzil suggested Eomer looked more like the seer who had dreamed me a wolf than Nog did because Nog was so explicit that I was the cobbler.
Anyway he pushed Nog's being the BW very strongly (although he also mentioned the no trace people Eomer, sally, Kath & Form as possible kills). I'm inclined to think he was trying to take a distance from sally in case she died before him so we wouldn't find a link back to Shasta... and he says it'd be useful to speculate on who the BW is because the fact that the wolves attacked her is a big piece of information. And because sally was pretty much a no trace kill, it would've been convenient for the wolves to make us focus on that.

Shasta finds EW's vote for Eomer fabricated-looking and safe, and calls wilwa and me wolfish for saying there's no use trying to find the BW before we know more. He argues with wilwa and to a lesser degree also me and Pitch, and expresses contempt for Form's motivation. He's neutral on Eomer but "inclined to see if he steps it up tomorrow (last chance, Eomer!)"

Quote:
You don't want to vote for my dear one or I, and yet you find us both guilty? How interesting.
There's something weird about this comment. It's a reply to me after I said I suspected both Nerwen and Shasta but didn't want to vote for them that day. It's oddly... self-conscious, if you know what I mean. It looks like he was accusing me of not voting either of them... or kind of like "She doesn't want to vote for people she suspects! Guilty!" And it actually makes me feel worse about Nerwen.

Out of Eomer, me, EW, wilwa and Form I looked the worst and wilwa the best, but he ended up voting for Volo (crossing with his reveal). He then called for three more votes for Eomer, but it didn't basically mean anything because Volo was the only remaining voter around.

I wonder how much we can make of Shasta's day 3 posts because EW voted for him quite early (and his post must have alarmed the wolves, Shasta included, so he might have been preparing for his death already then).
He banters with Nerwen in a friendly tone, says he seems to remember Eomer is more involved as a wolf but he might still vote for him on principle, and disagrees with Greenie: "I don't really see why having principles automatically makes you wolvish." They were talking about Kath, and that's not what Greenie said, she just pointed out it would be convenient for a wolf. He criticised Inzil for calling EW an easy vote and voting for Kath himself (who hadn't shown up yet that day). He wanted to vote for Eomer & me (plus a couple of dead innocents), didn't want to for wilwa, Lottie & Greenie, and could vote for Kath & Form (and sally) on principle but probably wouldn't unless things changed. He was neutral on Pitch and Nerwen. I'm not going to start any "he probably didn't put his fellows in the same category" stuff because it's impossible to know what a wolf would do in a certain situation... but it's worth pointing out that he probably knew he'd die if EW was revealed as the seer, and his intent was therefore to ensure that his fellows survive. However there are a million ways for that, and if someone wants to analyse it, go ahead, but I won't.

And I'm going to ignore everything Shasta said yesterday because it was meant just to confuse us, and I think the only thing we might be able to find there is the cobbler (and even that's not a given).

**

Shasta suspects (but never votes - everyone he actually voted is dead by now):
Eomer
Agan


Friendly with:
Nerwen

Quarrels with:
wilwa
Pitch

(Agan)

Very little interaction:
Form
Greenie
Kath
Lottie


Based on this, I'd put people (myself excluded, obviously) in this order. From the most likely fellow to the least:
Eomer - an enigma that could go either way, but to me he looks more wolfish than innocent. The way Shasta keeps bringing him up but never acts on it doesn't really speak in his favour (but then, he did the same with me).
Kath - very little interaction but Shasta's subtle defense of her by semi-questioning Greenie doesn't look too good.
Nerwen - not much game-related interaction except occasional agreeing with each other which would be convenient for them as a wolf-pair. Plus the quote I provided above.
Form - nothing speaks for his being Shasta's fellow, but nothing speaks against it, either.
Pitch - an argument but not much else.
Greenie - because he twisted what she said of Kath.
wilwa - her argument with Shasta looks quite innocent.
Lottie - because I'm willing to consider her a known innocent, anyway.

Note that this is only based on what Shasta said of people, not what they said of him. I might take a look at it later unless someone else would like to (which, to be honest, I wouldn't much mind ).
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Last edited by Aganzir; 11-04-2010 at 09:26 AM. Reason: xed with Lottie
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