[Macalaure]

Yes, this is a long one. I can't help it. Feel free to skip past the boring stuff.

I went through what (still living) people said about Lottie, Inzil, and Nessa since Day2, and assigned negative numbers to suspicious comments and positive numbers to innocent-looking ones.

Lottie might have been an all-innocent lynch, but there were evil bystanders at least. Considering the set-up against Inzil, I find it hard to believe that wolves had no part in his actual lynch. Nessa is a bit of a question mark, since we don't know her role, but her innocence would fit the picture perfectly.


Day2

#168 Legate brings up Inzil's strange Day2 entry. (fair point, but very back-and-forth-y) -1

#174 Legate says if the votes point to anybody, it's Nessa and Inzil -1 (for slight fishiness

#178 Cailín makes a solid point about Lottie (0)

#179 Legate comments to Lottie and says she now sounds innocent. +2

#182 Rikae argues with Nessa a bit, but it doesn't give me a bad feeling. Says Lottie might have been hiding behind her vote (not solid) -1

#183 Pitch analyses Ozban's death, which leads into a whole post against Nessa (0, since a wolf might not post so condemningly)

#186 Cailín agrees with Pitch casually -2

#188 Pitch states that Inzil was self-conscious based on Kath's suspicion, but doesn't go as far as to really suspect him. (0)

#200 e_d says Inzil doesn't look like a wolf. +2

#202 Boro, among many things, repeats his Inzil-pillowtalk (which doesn't make any sense) to me. -1

#206 Legate repeats that he doesn't suspect Lottie anymore. +1
He also says he's "somewhat wary" of Inzil. -1

#210 Skip fence-sits on whether Ozban's kill incriminates Nessa. -2

#219 Rikae list: back-and-forth on Lottie (-1), pondering Nessa, inconclusive on Inzil

#221 Cailín analyses Nessa, finds nothing of remark, but closes with "she has done nothing to make her look innocent" -1

#231 Legate is displeased about Nessa. -1

#234 Shasta criticises point Pitch and Cailín made about Nessa. +2

#252 Shasta list: feels slightly bad about Nessa (there are some points against her), and moderately bad about Lottie (refers back to Day1) and Inzil(screams double-bluff wolf) -2

#253 Skip gives Nessa the benefit of the doubt (+1), very fishy statement about Lottie (-2), and "I'm be tempted to try Inzil. Not because I really suspect him, but rather because his identity could shed some light of yesterDay's voting." (-3)

#257 Skip is unhappy about Lottie's vote (too safe). (-1)

#260 Shasta is, too. (-1)

#267 Greenie list: Lottie's innocent but she doesn't buy everything (0), questions the validity of the evidence against Nessa (+1), leaning bad about Inzil, and fishily so (-2)

#273/274 Cailín goes after Lottie (somewhat fishily) and votes for her (-2) and considers Nessa "to clear up some confusion" (-2)

#275 Pitch doesn't like the evidence against Inzil (+1), sticks to his Day1 vote Nessa (-2)

#276 Agan list: Lottie innocent (+1), can't see what makes Nessa suspicious (+1), lists a few bad things about Inzil, then says she's not concerned about him (-2)

#278 e_d: fishy comment about Inzil (-1)

#279 Legate list: inconclusive statement about Nessa (-1), positive about Lottie (+1), wary of Inzil, but not suspecting (0)

#283 Legate won't vote Lottie (+1), could vote Nessa (-1), "unsure which category to put in": Inzil (-3)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, but is "quite unsure" about it (-3)

#287 Cailín list: Inzil innocent (+1), Lottie guilty (prev. post) (-1), Nessa (not committed, quiet) (-1)

#288 Rikae notes that both "psychics" feel uneasy about Inzil (-1)

#290 Agan could vote Nessa to get rid of an enigma (-2)

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (straighforwardly) (-1), discourages Nessa suspicions (+1)

#294 Rikae switches to Inzil (0) (the reasons are suspicious, but why would a wolf make a big deal about switching from one ordo to another)

#296 Cailín votes Lottie. (0) she's consistent in it, which makes it not suspicious.

#300 Agan: Zil's last post was creepy (-1)

#301 Legate: Definitely not for Inzil, not for Lottie (+3)

#303 e_d: Inzil mostly alright (+1), votes for Lottie (-1)

#310 Agan votes for Nessa (-1), casually stating that she doesn't actually suspect any of the leading candidates. I'd give more points for this, but she did explore other options before.

#311 Legate votes for Nessa (0) (makes sense considering his previous statements)


Day3

#319 Agan wonders whether both Nessa and Inzil are wolves, because of the Legate-180 (-3)

#322 Legate suspects Inzil to be the cobbler (-1)

#326 Rikae is dissatisfied by Inzil's explanation of his vote (-1), considers whether both Inzil and Nessa could be wolves (-1)

#330 Rikae goes after Inzil more (-1)

#333 Pitch questions Inzil on a few things (-1), has second thoughts about Nessa (too wish-washy to get + points)

#354 Greenie gives a whole lot against Inzil (-1) (not more, since I don't think the wolves would be this elaborate)

#361 Legate is very undecided about Inzil and Nessa (-1)

#365 Greenie list: Very shady suspicion about Nessa (-3), still suspicious of Inzil (0)

#367 Agan talks about Inzil's last 10 minutes on Day2 (-1) (as with Greenie before, would a wolf follow up the nightly frame this openly?)

#369 Legate is still undecided about Inzil (-2) (creates subtle confusion, which I think is something the wolves might want)

#371 Agan: fishy comments about Inzil and Nessa (-1)

#373 Greenie is the first to vote Inzil (0)

#375 Cailín: "if the wolves thought Valier was the seer, then Nessa looks good" (+1)

#377 Legate:

But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them.

Radar go *ping* (-3)

#382 Agan lets go of Inzil a bit (+1)

#384 e_d wouldn't be surprised if Inzil was the cobbler (-1)

#390 Wilwa "doesn't get the Nessa thing", which would be good, except that she puts a host of unsure comments after it (-1), gives reasons against Inzil and votes for him. (a bit easy, -1)

#396 Skip analyses Day2 voting and ends up being suspicious of Nessa and Inzil in a very back-and-forthy way (-2)

#398 Cailín list:
"Nessa - We talk about her a lot, but there's no answer. Could she really be a wolf?"
"Inziladun - has without a doubt been a distraction: strange."
Very fishy comments. (-3)

#401 Skip list:
"Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable."
"Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against him though."
Trying to beat Cailín in fishiness. (-3)

#402 Cailín doesn't like Nessa's martyr-thing. (-1)

#403 Boro: Calls Pitch, Nessa, Inzil big question marks that will forever haunt us, then asks Legate whether they should widen the search. Says he would regret letting Nessa and Inzil slip by. (-3)

#405 Skip votes Nessa "I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out". (-3)

#410 Shasta:
Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa.
(-3) (you might notice the pattern: people who suspect/vote Inzil/Nessa without being actually suspicious of them themselves get a lot of points)

#412 Agan (had ignored Nessa and Inzil for a while at this point) wants to vote for Inzil or a quiet one (-1)

#413 Shasta repeats what he said before: if we don't lynch Nessa/Inzil, we'll keep on talking about them (-3)

#416 Rikae suggests forgetting about Nessa/Inzil for now (+1)

#417 Pitch agrees with Shasta (coming up with the idea is bad enough, but passively agreeing?). Pitch repeats his intention to vote for Nessa (hasn't given a new point on her in a while), but says Inzil looks even worse. (-4)

#421 Cailín agrees as well (-3)

#422 Shasta adds a fishy reason and votes for Inzil (-2)

#423 Pitch flips a coin between Inzil and Nessa and votes Inzil (-2)

#424 Shasta adds another fishy reason against Inzil (-1)

#427 Cailín concedes that it's a bandwaggon (if she seriously suspected him, it wouldn't be a problem, would it?) and votes Inzil (-2)

#430 Legate is unsure about voting Nessa or Inzil (-1)

#434 e_d is not ready to jump on the Inzil-waggon (0)

#437 Legate is swayed towards Inzil or Nessa. He seems genuinely unhappy with the decision, though. He then votes for Nessa (0)

#441 Boro repeats that lynching Nessa/Inzil would "clear up the weight hanging over the council" (-2) (and -1 for melodrama)

#443 Agan votes Inzil (-1), since she hesitates about Nessa (+1)

#444 Boro votes Inzil, waiting til others decided it for him (-2)

#447 e_d votes for Nessa (-1)


Final Count:

Cailín -18 +2 (-16)
Skip -16 +1 (-15)
Shasta -12 +2 (-10)
Agan -13 +4 (-9)
Boro -9 +0 (-9)
Legate -17 +8 (-9)
Greenie -9 +1 (-8)
Pitch -9 +1 (-8)
Rikae -6 +2 (-4)
wilwa -2 +0 (-2)
e_d -4 +3 (-1)
Mänwe -0 +0 (0)

Alright, you can certainly argue whether each point I assigned is deserved or not, but all in all I think I got the picture right. Obviously, frequent posters look worse here, which the other way around means that infrequent posters should be higher. According to this, our wolf-pack is Cailín, Skip, Shasta, and Boro, with Agan, Legate, Greenie and Pitch other possibilities. I'd like to clear Rikae and e_d, but I hesitate to clear wilwa and Mänwe, who stayed almost completely outside of the discussion.


I only noticed this now while re-reading:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"