I started this ages ago and have been distracted every now and then, but I'm going to post it nonetheless in case its of any use.
Lommy ++ Manwe:
He's been around and apparently able to talk but all he's said this far is banter. That does not look good in my books, no precious, not at all.
Earlier she said "Only banter this far. Cobbler?" She didn't vote for
Nerwen (who was Wolf?) or
Lottie (whom she didn't like).
The vote seems quite random and easy in a "I don't want any responsibility for the lynch" kind of way.
Lommy has played with
Mänwe before and should know bantering doesn't necessarily make him evil.
Legate ++ Nessa:
Of all the submarines, except for Mith (who now started posting), the one whose post was giving odd vibes to me.
Said
Lottie looked cobblerish but he'd rather vote for someone who looked like a wolf.
Lommy looked odd but he'd like to see more.
Nessa only gave him a ??? feeling.
He could of course have voted for someone he was actually suspicious of, but he said he'll probably go for a submarine. His vote doesn't ring any alarms.
Green ++ Lommy:
since she's the best lead I have. Usually I never suspect her and she's never evil. This time, on the other hand, she seems quite off to me. Nervous, playing easily, and over-emphasizing stuff (the cobbler paranoia, for example).
She went consistently after
Lommy since her first post. I find the vote somewhat fishy though. Granted, I see what she means about
Lommy but she seems to explain her vote in more length than necessary - no one expects day 1 votes to be fully reasoned.
Shasta ++ Nog:
I thought about voting Phantom, but his defense seemed reasonable enough - whereas Nogrod just seemed to latch on and say "Yeah, what he said!"
Nog was giving advice to the baddies and defending
phantom's (suspicious) actions.
I disagree with his reasons for voting
Nog but given how suspicious
Nog was, I'm good with his vote.
Agan ++ Nog (2):
(insert a lot of disagreeing with
Nog over the day)
Shasta ++ Shasta
phantom... What is this?

Ahh it's
Nog ++ Shasta:
He didn't for a moment consider what I (and tp) were saying, but decided that it was a way to stage a suspicion: two people having similar opinions and wishing people to listen to them. Also I think he very cleverly decided to vote me because I wouldn't be here to talk back near the DL unlike tp.
Earlier he made a list of (quiet) people he'd like to vote for and said he could vote
Shasta who was giving him evil vibes but he doesn't want to base his vote on retaliation.
Nog always gets more paranoid/aggressive when it's late, but I really think he was trying to put words in
Shasta's mouth. I'm not too fond of his vote.
Manwe ++ Green:
A Little Green- three posts before voting, general, casts a number of doubts. backing, moderate or poor.
I'm not sure I would've gone so far as to vote for
Greenie based on that (you could basically say it about anybody) but I understand why he might have found her suspicious.
Daughter ++ Nog (3):
Partly because Shasta's overreaction makes him seem innocent. And if Nog's not guilty, then he'll be a helpful ghost.
So either
Nog or
Shasta had to be a baddie? I have nothing against someone voting for
Nog, but this is a very easy vote.
Nessa ++ Legate:
Because he voted me. And he's useful/won't muddy the waters in the dead thread.
Dear heavens, someone shoot me. I just made the worst vote ever, didn't I?
So you voted for him because you thought he was innocent?
Fea ++ Nerwen:
Active enough to be useful in the next life, not so active I'll miss her desperately in this one.
You think she's going to be useful even though you don't know if she's good or bad?
Lottie ++ Manwe (2):
for his rather worrisome post...
To me it doesn't look like he was trying to make
Nog &
Shasta's fight worse and
Lottie seems to be making way too much of a single comment.
Boro ++ Legate (2):
Those two seem to be making too much out of my suspicions.
That's an alright reason even if I don't agree with him on
Legate.
Glirdan ++ Lommy (2):
To do a quick recap: don't like here wishy-washy feeling, don't like her vote. Most of her posts have been banterish, time for that was long gone when she voted.
Understandable.
Ang ++ Manwe (3):
In contrast Manwe adopted a silent assassin position throughout much of today, then ended up joining the fray in a tone of preemptive snapping that reminded me of lupine false confidence I've seen before. He's much more likely to be wrong than right, but he feels the best I have to go on and less inevitably innocent than Nogrod.
Ang tied
Mänwe with
Nog which led to
Mänwe's death. If
Nog is a baddie, it makes
Ang look bad.
Nerwen ++ Manwe (4):
So, it's Manwe and Nog tied at 3 votes each? Okay, then, that simplifies things–
She didn't really speak of
Nog while she agreed
Lottie brought up a point against
Mänwe.
Mith ++ Legate (3):
Lommy did say she had a busy day and I don't like his trumped up "case" against me. Nothing better to go with for today.
It was a throw away in the sense that it was highly unlikely
Legate would've been lynched, but that's okay if she didn't suspect any of the main candidates.
Phantom ++ Manwe (5)
I still want to kill Lommy if we have the votes to do it.
At least he made sure there would be no double lynch...