The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY!

Feanor of the Peredhil · 01-29-2011, 10:14 PM

Hello, dolls.

---

Written immediately following Deadline:

Mmkay, so at the time of Noggles's death, the Dead Thread post count is,

Shasta: 32
Manwe: 12
Rikae: 9
Mac: 1

At this point, the 'facts' that the village has are these:

Manwe was killed by the village and we do not know his role.

Shasta was killed by the wolves, and we can assume that he is therefore not a wolf.

Aganzir revealed as the Lover of Shasta. Since we will know very soon if she lied, this revelation was taken as FACT, because it would not help a wolf to make that bluff, it would not help a cobbler to make that bluff, and an ordo would not make that bluff.

Nog revealed as Seer and claimed to dream of Agan-Beren and Phantom-Cobbler.

Agan used her gender-bending feminine wiles to make Nog look exceptionally bad.

Therefore:

IF Agan is Not-Evil, which seems to be a foregone conclusion, THEN the village's decrying of Nog is accurate and we have killed either a cobbler or a wolf.

If Nog is a wolf, then it can be assumed that he was working under the auspices of the Pack, which currently contains either two or three members, one being Nog. If two, the third was Manwe and is already dead. If three, the others are unknown and are alive.

If Manwe was a wolf and Nog was a wolf, the two may now communicate via PM.

If Nog is a cobbler, he was working more or less alone (as in: he was unable to coordinate plans privately with others).

If Nog was working with a Pack, there would need to be a motive, such as to cast doubt on another player, or to cast good light on another player.

Because Dead Wolves may not communicate with Live Wolves, it is of no immediate benefit for a wolf to simply die.

There is a caveat to this: regardless of number of living wolves (either one left or two left), if it was judged to be of sufficient benefit to the remaining pack member/s for a Nog-wolf to die, then we can look at it thusly: the only person whose reputation is polished to a streak free shine from Nog's performance is the phantom.

However, I provide my opinion:

Nog is a cobbler, working to destabilize the village. He is not a wolf, and his behavior says nothing at all about the phantom's alignment.

--

As of 11:00pm EST toDay, this is the Dead Thread count.

Shasta: 44
Manwe: 14
Rikae: 13
Nog: 11
Mac: 2

01-29-2011, 10:14 PM	#86
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	Well obviously I've got to post this somewhere... Hello, dolls. --- Written immediately following Deadline: Mmkay, so at the time of Noggles's death, the Dead Thread post count is, Shasta: 32 Manwe: 12 Rikae: 9 Mac: 1 At this point, the 'facts' that the village has are these: Manwe was killed by the village and we do not know his role. Shasta was killed by the wolves, and we can assume that he is therefore not a wolf. Aganzir revealed as the Lover of Shasta. Since we will know very soon if she lied, this revelation was taken as FACT, because it would not help a wolf to make that bluff, it would not help a cobbler to make that bluff, and an ordo would not make that bluff. Nog revealed as Seer and claimed to dream of Agan-Beren and Phantom-Cobbler. Agan used her gender-bending feminine wiles to make Nog look exceptionally bad. Therefore: IF Agan is Not-Evil, which seems to be a foregone conclusion, THEN the village's decrying of Nog is accurate and we have killed either a cobbler or a wolf. If Nog is a wolf, then it can be assumed that he was working under the auspices of the Pack, which currently contains either two or three members, one being Nog. If two, the third was Manwe and is already dead. If three, the others are unknown and are alive. If Manwe was a wolf and Nog was a wolf, the two may now communicate via PM. If Nog is a cobbler, he was working more or less alone (as in: he was unable to coordinate plans privately with others). If Nog was working with a Pack, there would need to be a motive, such as to cast doubt on another player, or to cast good light on another player. Because Dead Wolves may not communicate with Live Wolves, it is of no immediate benefit for a wolf to simply die. There is a caveat to this: regardless of number of living wolves (either one left or two left), if it was judged to be of sufficient benefit to the remaining pack member/s for a Nog-wolf to die, then we can look at it thusly: the only person whose reputation is polished to a streak free shine from Nog's performance is the phantom. However, I provide my opinion: Nog is a cobbler, working to destabilize the village. He is not a wolf, and his behavior says nothing at all about the phantom's alignment. -- As of 11:00pm EST toDay, this is the Dead Thread count. Shasta: 44 Manwe: 14 Rikae: 13 Nog: 11 Mac: 2 __________________ peace