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Originally Posted by Nogrod
Okay. I'm not sure whether this "who would you have protected were you Sam" -thing is a good idea or not. If everyone says they would have protected Lhuna (well, she was the only person based on yesterDay one could have a reason to try and heal, others I think would have been more or less shots in the dark) and Sam goes along saying the same truthfully, then we know that Lhuna is innocent toDay whether stinged on N1 or not. That would be good.
But the downside is that if Sam didn't try to heal Lhuna last Night for whichever reason he had he's now in trouble. Saying he tried to heal Lhuna gives us a possibly misleading confidence that Lhuna is a "known innocent", but giving another name would make him stand out from the others in a way Sam wouldn't probably like to.
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There's another possibility. Maybe Sam did choose Lhuna, but Lhuna wasn't the target; Sam was. In that case knowing Same chose Lhuna would really not mean much at all, Lhuna could have still been the one stung the day before, or she could be Shelob. If I was Sam I probably would have chosen Lhuna, because a lot of people seemed to think that was a good idea, and I think a lot of people will say they would have chosen Lhuna if they were Sam (which makes me think Shelob did not sting Lhuna, knowing Sam had probably chosen her; therefore Shelob's target was likely Sam himself). So if Sam was the target, then knowing who his choice was isn't really important. That's why to me the whole exercise doesn't seem overly productive.
We have to consider the distinct possibility that Sam was the target (I feel like this is the likely situation), which means Shelob knows who he is and super wants him dead. (and her spawn also wants him dead) So we just need to keep an eye out for two people who seem to really want a certain person dead, with maybe weak reasons for it, and they could be guilty. Also, if we do end up accidently lynching Sam, then we could just look into who seemed to really want that person dead.
I think it could end up being a positive thing if Shelob is aware of Sam's identity this early. She can't kill him at Night, being lynched is the only threat to him, so in order to get him killed Shelob and her spawn need to really push a case against Sam, and if they succeed then a lot of attention could be brought to them the next Day, so it's super risky for them.