View Single Post
Old 05-13-2011, 06:47 AM   #467
Nogrod
Flame of the Ainulindalė
 
Nogrod's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves
Posts: 9,308
Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
Send a message via MSN to Nogrod
First some big news!

I seem to have remembered something on D3 I had after that totally forgotten - and I seem not to be the only one...
Quote:
Originally Posted by me discussing the situation on #301
But the nasty fact is, that if we lynch more innocents and no rangering or healing takes place (and Lhuna's numbers are correct), we'll have toMorrow Shelob + two spiderlings against one stinged and three other innocents. Then lynching an innocent (even the stinged one) toMorrow means we lose.

Oh wait... didn't the number of the baddies need to outnumber the innocents this time? *checked, right they have to* Okay that gives us one more chance, although if a stinged one is not healed the lobber-gang will win.
So we will not lose this toDay but will have two Days to turn this better.



I checked D3 and am not too sure I found anything decisive, but maybe something.

Nerwen and Lhuna suspected tp. Nerwen more carefully questioning his actions (though she voted for him the Day before), Lhuna more like getting points against him. Lottie was also slightly suspecting tp.

tp said Wilwa is innocent, Lottie at most stinged the Night before, Lhuna likely not stinged (according to what I think now outdated theory as Sam most probably has denied doing it).

tp asks Zil how phantomcentric he is. Zil says not as a rule, but needs to battle against that...

tp thought Nerwen his best bet and repeated he would wish to get her lynched if there was a chance. Saved Lottie in the end.


My thought is that stinging tp would be extra-dangerous for Shelob, as if someone, then he would be one able to let others know he has been stinged and thus give Sam a decent chance of healing him (actually said that in my post #325). But looking at from that way I think it makes Nerwen look a bit better as if tp was suspecting her she might have been the one to gain a lot of attention by him the next Day. So to a Nerlob stinging tp would have been very risky indeed.

Lottie and Lhuna suspect phantom from a position where they are more or less trusted by him (and Lottie already now gone). Whuch means Lhuna could have been more confident in trying to sting tp. But that isn't much either.

anyway the one doing it must have either thought s/he was in no big trouble if s/he stinged him - or just didn't think about the dangerousness of that bussiness.



Okay. Greenie came to spend the weekend with me a bit earlier I thought (and there will be a semifinal match between Finland and Russia in the World Championships this evening), but I will still be hanging some time here as well during the rest of the Day. Hopefully being able to do something of consequence.

Also I'm looking forwards to Sam opening his mouth and giving us some thoughts from the brainstorming with Frodo.

But for now, I'm off...
__________________
Upon the hearth the fire is red
Beneath the roof there is a bed;
But not yet weary are our feet...
Nogrod is offline   Reply With Quote