The AKM brings you a general analysis of the teams and their groups in two parts now as the teams have played two friendlies. After the last round of friendlies the AKM will provide its readers with a full analysis backed up with a host of statistics for anyone wishing to bet on the Phantasy Tournament..
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GROUP A
Doriath
Himring H
Shire-Bree United
Tirion
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Doriath looks the single contestant to take the peak position in this group. The trio Húrin, Túrin and Beleg supported by Eöl in offence; Beren, Luthien and Mablung hanging in between and defense having Melian and Thingol join Carcaroth and Huan looking like finding his shape again looks like a deadly combination to any team they’ll meet. Even if their opponents haven’t been the toughest around the goal difference 7-1 in only two games just talks for itself.
Group H second (whichever it is) will be a snack to them in the way to quarterfinals where going might get rougher.
Tirion looks like the other one team to go through to the play-offs. Aulë’s team has both scoring potential and more or less solid defense. Finwë, Finrod and Aredhel are a threat to any team around in offence, but even if they have sacked the disasterous defense of last year the new one is a questionmark, like Orodreth in goal.
Of the two other teams the Shire-Bree Utd. has a slight chance to qualify, but especially their defense and goaltending need to step up to the occasion if they wish that. The Fabulous Four sure seem to play better together than on their own, but it’s not only the fans who are missing Rosie Cotton in the goal. Old Maggott from the midfield is missed by many as well.
Himring seems to be the weakest side of this group, but one should not forget that they’ve had one of the toughest opposition in the friendlies thus far. But will a draw with Nargothrond be merit enough on the real games? Maedhros and Fingon need to find a new gear and Maglor needs to pull his act together at the goal for them to have any chances.
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GROUP B
Anduin
Esgaroth
Misty Mts
Wilderland H
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Like in Group A, there seems to be a sole favourite to win this group, and that is Wilderland. The attack led by Sauron and two dragons (Scatha and Smaug) are a formidable bunch, while snatching Khamûl and the wizards was a jackpot to Sauron solidifying his midfield and defense. Many were suspicious of Grimbeorn’s qualities as a keeper for a team that would go far, but his saving-percentage of 80% is on the top quarter of the goalies thus far. Sauron scarcely takes a losing side but unless miracles happen Wilderland will not be seen in the finals (number two from Group G will be a tough enough challenge to them)…
Of the other teams it is hard to say who will crushed by the Valar on the first round of the play-offs.
Misty Mts. has faced decently strong opponents thus far and especially Caradhras has performed quite well in the goal while Saruman and Durin’s Bane have not yet warmed up enough in the offence. Esgaroth seems to be having the strongest forwards of the three (Bard, Daín, Girion), but Brand is one of the poorest goalies in the tournament and it’s hard to see a team going far with such level of goaltending. To make things more puzzling, Anduin has managed to draw with Misty Mts. and goes in between the stats in regards to the other two contenders for the second place.
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GROUP C
Angband
Angfauglith H
Hithlum
The Downer
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Group C boasts with two real contenders to win the Arda Cup 2011, one real oddball and an unpredictable bunch of players who could either fly or fall depending on how they’ll get their act together.
Angband has moved from Utumno retaining most of their players and with the first friendlies Morgoth and his crew strengthened with Ancalagon the Black as the striker looks a formidable side indeed. And as Ungoliant has continued her great performances in the goal we got used to the last season it looks like this team will be really hard to beat for anyone.
But the newly-formed team Angfaughlith is no push-over either. Echtelion, Gwindor, Maeglin and Gothmog form a really dangerous offence and Huor keeps on catching the balls with great percentages downstairs. Two balrogs and the High King Fingolfin takes care the defense in front of Huor holds.
The team Downer is the real questionmark here. Their unorthodox style of play, their odd tactics and physicality that leads to many cards being distributed, but which can also unsettle the opponent, makes them the odd one out. No one knows what to anticipate of them or how to play them. Thus far they have performed remarkably well but there is a clear weakness in their goaltending as King Bus seems not to be on the level of his collagues in teams Angband and Angfaughlith.
A decent better might indeed lay his money on Hithlum rather than the Downer for the third place. And if the brothers Celegorm and Curufin have it their way and the team tactics are changed, who knows if they can even challenge the top two of the group – but that would require remarkable changes and bringing forth some untapped talent in the team.
A real giant-killer will be seen on the first rounds of the play-offs when either Angband or Angfaughlith takes on Westernesse…
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GROUP D
Barad-Dur
Eregion H
Eriador
Gondor
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Group D looks like a fairly even one and hard to predict. On the basis of pre-tournament speculation and the first two rounds of friendlies it might look like Gondor would be the favorites to win the group, but Eregion and Eriador are breathing closely behind them – and no one should underestimate the men of the Last Alliance even if they look like being a bit lonely.
But if the AKM would have to bet right now, it would put its money on Eregion to win the group, the edge being on Elrond in the goal and Glorfindel in the front (and just waiting for Eärendil to wake up). But as the team Eriador boasts a host of the former members of team Norbury from last year, one should not downplay their chances either – although especially Araphor has been wandering in the shadows thus far leaving the scoring to the Barrow Wight who truly underperformed the last year.
Barad Dûr will be the fourth team of the group unless there are some miracles working in there. It was understandable Gil-Galad and Isildur teamed with Sauron last year to make what team Anfaughlith has done this year, but as Sauron left it has been the constant question why the last alliance boys stayed with the baddies and did not sign into other teams. And on what loyalty does Cirdan play there? With the two humans one can blame pride and vanity, but with Cirdan?
Whatever the result of this group is, the two teams from group E will drop them easily in the first round of play-offs – at least the runner-up will have a cold ride.
Part two to follow tomorrow...