[Nogrod]

GROUP E
Mordor
Nargothrond
The Forest H
Tol In Gaurhoth

A stranger to the Arda football might think Mordor being the favourites of this group if only looking at the stats of the friendlies, but we here in the AKM know better. It is quite clear the T-I-G team will wake up as the real games begin. For example the veterans Phantomwolf (0+0) and Nogwolf (1+0) have obviously just been stretching their muscles thus far. The question T-I-G faces every year is their goaltending. Last year Eomerwarg was playing very bad in the friendlies but got a level or two better in the tournament itself. Let’s hope Shastawolf will perform a similar kind of feat this year as the beginning hasn’t been the best one. Gwathwolf has played promisingly in the first two games.

Even if Glaurung seems to be enjoying his game once again, he will not be able to keep team Nargothrond going all by himself. With little support for him Nargothrond will be the last of this group.

That leaves Mordor and The Forest to fight over the second place in the play-offs. Mordor’s stats look a bit better at this moment and Silent Watcher looks like a formidable keeper indeed. But then again Mordor has had a class inferior opponents thus far than The Forest.

On the Forest’s side there is the eternal questionmark with a name of Tom Bombadill. When interested in the game Bombadill is one of the best forwards in the whole tournament, if not even the single best one. Focused on the game he can win games singlehandedly. But that is, when he happens to be interested in playing. Without him the team Forest is more or less an average one.

GROUP F
Mithrim
Numenor H
Tol Eressea
Westernesse

The numenorians will advance to the play-offs from this group. Westernesse is one of the serious contesters to win the whole tournament this year and team Numenor will be proud enough not to lose to the two bottom teams of this group.

Ar Pharazon and High king Elros seem to be in good shape once again and they have a strong support in offence with Tar Minastir, Ar Adunakhor, Mardil and Hyermendacil. and the defence led by the great Tar Telperien herself will be one of the toughest to crack as the real games begin. The only possible questionmark in the team Westernesse is the fitness of their goalkeeper Tar Atanamir. He has been a trustworthy goalie for years and he has been playing quite well thus far also this year, but he has not been flashing or magnificent yet. Tournament-winners will need that kind of goalie.

Before the friendlies started many laid bets on both Tulkas and Ulmo outshining their big brother, but even if Tulkas most probably will do it with team Valinor, Ulmo’s Tol Erëssea looks just pathetic. It’s quite telling that their only stats from two games is three yellow cards. On the positive note one could say though that Amandil is a decent keeper.

But if possible, Mithrim is even a sorrier case. Their goal difference of 1-7 tells it all – even if they’ve had a bit stronger opponents than some other teams thus far. Tuor himself could have had glorious moments scoring for Gondolin but setting himself to the goal of his own team with just a wee bit over 50% savings-percentage seems like a very silly move indeed. He has one decent defender (Annael), one midfielder (Morwen) and Andróg is a pretty good forward, but having four quality players just isn’t enough in a tournament of this level.

GROUP G
Beleriand
Gondolin
Pelori
Valinor H

Group G is definitively the “group of death” this time around. All four teams would qualify easily in whichever group – with the possible exception of Beleriand and group C with two top-quality teams already in the group.

So, Beleriand is clearly the weakest link in this group and the only one that can be predicted probably not to qualify. Beleriand has not played badly, but the team clearly lacks both drive and stamina. Although it must be noted that Halmir has proved to be one of the top goalies of the tournament thus far and the other teams will find it hard to get the ball past him: with the saving-percentage of 90% Halmir would shine brightly in any group. But in this group he is only the third best! That tells something of the quality this group has.

Gondolin will most probably be the other team to fall this time around. Sadly the champions of last year with more or less totally new team consisting mostly of players from last year’s runners up Vinyamar has had tough luck in the drawing of the groups. Valinor and Pelori are just too tough for them. Unless Rôg comes back to his level of play in the goal and Turgon manages to beat Idril and his two forwards, former Vinyamar midfielders Duilin and Egalmoth into superb performances.

Between Valinor and Pelori it will be interesting to see which one takes the number one position.

Valinor could be said to be the slight favourites though. With Miriel and Nerdanel sharing the forward position alongside Arien the Valinor attack is one of the best in the whole tournament. But their quality doesn’t end there. With Valier-laden midfield and defence, led by Tulkas himself, the team is strong on every level. In average they allow the opponents to shoot half the shots most other teams do; and in two games their opponents have managed to shoot towards goal only four times. To keep those rare shots at bay Ingwë is an elf in place in between the posts.

Pelori seems to play like they did last year: avoiding to humiliate their opponents winning them with small numbers – but still winning consistently. There is a lot of skill and experience in the team. Especially Manwë has shown to be a quality-keeper and his spouse, the lady of the stars, seems to be at home on the top of the midfield scoring twice in two matches, and Lórien is in a good shape this year as well. They can dominate the matches against most opponents with just pure willpower, but how will they fare against teams as mighty as they are, like Valinor for starters?

GROUP H
Dunharrow H
Lothlorien
Minas Morgul
Minas Tirith

After the flash and awe of group G, group H looks pretty thin in talent. Of the teams here only Lothlórien has some chances of surviving the first round of the play-offs. But that requires that team gets the pieces of its game into place both on tactical and individual level. They need to get the ball more to Fëanor in front to be able to use his talent in full, but also Boromir and Legolas need to step up their game. Gandalf and Shadowfa seem to be still searching for their game and Galadriel hasn’t been on her top level as yet. If these few things start to work Lothlórien has chances to go far in this tournament. But there’s a big if there.

Both Towers have serious problems in defense, especially in their goalkeeping. Earnur has a pitiful saving-percentage of 50% and Cirion stays well under 60% as well. The Witch King is a dread to any opponent but somehow he has been quite invisible thus far – although they have only played against baddie teams. Maybe they will only get on full steam when they start meeting the goodies they despise? Be it as it may, they need to really pull themselves together if they wish to qualify.

Minas tirith has also problems with scoring but Dunharrow is just the bottom of the club: the overall stats show only three yellow cards, like with Tol Erëssea. But whereas Tol Erëssea clearly has potential it’s hard to see it emerging from team Dunharrow. But unlike the towerteams Dunharrow has somewhat decent defense which might keep them fighting for the place in the play-offs. Although that would be quite a surprise.