[Nogrod]

Reading instructions for the numbers:

After the name of the team are the number of friendlies they have won-drawn-lost
Next row: total goals made – total goals allowed
Last row: scoring percentage*, shots on target (all shots) – shots allowed on goal (all shots allowed), goalie’s saving percentage.

* The AKM thinks the percentage of scored goals vs. overall shots (not only those on target) tells one more about the team.

Group A
Doriath
Himring (hosts)
Shire-Bree Utd.
Tirion

Doriath 4-0-0
12-3
20,7% 34(58) – 18(37) 83,3%

A very strong performance in the friendlies. And the team really has talent this year. Elu Thingol hit the golden vein giving her spouse to pick up the team this year. This team is delivering! And there is no way it will not qualify. Actually there is no way they’re going to take any other than the first place in the group unless they wish to play tactics in an odd situation where the number two from Group H would be more to their liking and they’d be willing to lose in purpose for that forgetting their pride.

They just excel on all areas of the game.

Their friendlies have been just smashing. They have controlled the games as they wish, pressing and making goals when they will, even falling back after a lead but still scoring. Anfaughlith managed to score twice against them, but then again it was a very polite game where both teams played “hands-off” defense thus allowing more shots to the opponent (twice the number Doriath normally allows). So Huan and the defense led by Melian & Thingol (including Carcaroth & Beren) is even more formidable the stats show them to be – while the opponents will be playing it with full swing in the future as well to be sure.

But while their defense is solid, their offence is the real game-breaker. Twelve goals in four games is the best scoring-line of the friendlies with a margin. Having Túrin, Beleg, Húrin and Eöl up front would be a wet dream of any coach. Doriath has them – with Lúthien and Mablung supporting in the midfield.

With this line up and spirit Doriath will go a long way in this tournament.

Himring 1-1-2
4-7
10% 18(40) – 25(52) 72%

Losing the solid defense of Amon Sûl it was a surprise Maedhros and Fingon stuck together trying to gather a team around them and not just sell themselves to the highest bidders. It looked fine when Maedhros’ younger brothers Maglor, Amrod and Amras joined, but then it looked like all the rest of the talent was already hired to other teams. In a forced situation they turned towards their former Easterling allies, faithful and treacherous, to form an alliance in memory of Nirnaeth Arnodiedad – in the vein of how team Anfaughlith had been formed.

None predicted them a happy tournament and overall the results of the friendlies are just about average. But there is one thing that should be kept in mind here. They lost to Anfaughlith 1-3 because Maedhros purposefully left his defenses alone to see how they could cope, they played even with Nargothrond as they stopped playing after the leading goal. In their only game in more or less tournament drive they actually beat Gondolin 2-1. So maybe they’re just holding back something and will be much more dangerous come the real games?

One anomaly there is though: how was it they lost to The Forest 0-2 just like that? Was Tom Bombadill just that sovereign or what was it?

They will fight for the second qualifier with Tirion in this group. Only the future will tell which one will proceed.

Shire-Bree Utd. 0-2-2
7-12
14% 21(50) – 29(52) 58,6%

The Shire-Bree Utd. has attacked with gusto and scored. But that’s the only positive news there is to tell about this team. And sadly their ability to score is way undermined by the weakness of their defenses that allows the opponent to outscore them anyway. Also it must be admitted that most of their opponents in the friendlies have treated them with silken gloves – which will not happen when the real games begin. The one game their opponent played for real in the friendlies they scored zero. So if Doriath will be tougher in the tournament than their stats show, then S-B Utd. will be a lot weaker their stats show.

They draw with Esgaroth mostly because they were taking turns in the attack and amiably not taking it too seriously in between the joking. Eriador was way better a team of the two but Aragorn and friends rather chatted with them and let them make some game when they were ahead themselves – and were decent enough to only win them by one goal. The Forest ents just stood the first half fascinated more about seeing halflings than the game, but as soon as Bombadill woke them up S-B Utd. had no chance. The only game where the opponent were not giving them easy time was their last against T-I-G – and they lost that 0-4 without a question as to which team was superb.

Butterbur is one of the lousiest goalies in the tournament, their defense scores more minus points than positive ones (every defender has at least two cards)… The “hero-quartet” has a decent scoreline (Pip excluded) but that has been gaoned against opponents who do not play it for real. Only Bandobras Took has shown some quality in the team – and that will not be enough.

The last team of the group.

Tirion 1-2-1
9-6
15,5% 32(58) – 20(43) 70%

A nice pack of Noldor talent gathered around grandfather Finwë and aided by Aulë. Aredhel is a superb steal and Finrod Felagund delivers always. But will it be enough?

Their defense is probably better the stats allow as they gave away two goals to Pelori in a game that was more like an open practice, and three to Hithlum in the same way (an open test of the forwards where both teams neglected organised defense). And anyway their defensive stats are already better than their major rivals Himring – and actually their attack is on a class of its own regarding Himring. But there are a host of “but’s” involved.

A serious contender to be the second to qualify. 60%-40% against Himring.



Group B
Anduin
Esgaroth
Misty Mts.
Wilderland (hosts)

Anduin 0-2-2
5-8
11,1% 24(45) – 24(46) 66,7

It is rumoured that Earnil II, Beorn and Fram were drinking together one night by chance in a same inn and realized they had in common living by the Great River – and thus decided to form a team for this year’s Arda Cup. As is known, most drunken ideas should be left alone the next day but the three seemed to be serious enough to actually go for it. The result is a diverse team with no unifying cause to make them fight for it together – even if there is a host of individual talent involved.

Their stats aren’t too bad, but in this case they lie a bit. They draw with Misty Mts. (in the same group) but it was more like a cat and a mouse thing where the cat (Misty Mts.) let them shoot to test their new goalie and after falling back easily equalized on their will. They lost to Wilderland 1-3 (also in the same group) while Wilderland played left-handedly. They lost to Lothlórien only 0-1 because Lothlórien pulled back totally after getting the lead…

The only team they seemed to have earned a point from a draw was their game against the most pathetic team of Dunharrow (probably the worst one this year). Good for them, the team Esgaroth is even lousier than they are.

Most probably third in the group.

Esgaroth 0-1-3
5-13
14,3% 17(35) – 31(59) 58,1%

Esgaroth looks a lot like the team Dale from last year, but that they have lost their best players like Smaug and Beorn. The addition of the spiders Attercop and Tomnoddy goes nowhere near to replace the two heroes but might even distract the inner balance of the team – if there ever was one.

The results from the friendlies are just sad reading. They managed to draw with Shire-Bree Utd. in a game that was more like taking turns and chatting & joking. On other games it did happen that every time the opponent decided to play a little Esgaroth was more or less overrun.

Esgaroth really needs to find a solution to their classless defense. They have allowed almost sixty shots to the opponents of which about half on target – in four games! Even a great goalie would have problems trying to keep the goal intact in such a rain of shots, and sadly Brand isn’t one. And if one is going to allow three goals in every game (3,25 to be exact), they’d need a flashing attack to win games – which they have neither.

Unless they really pull their act together, and do some magic with their defense, they will be the last of the group.

Misty Mountains 2-1-1
7-4
16,3% 25(43) – 19(39) 79%

It is not said in vain of Saruman that he is wise, as wise people learn from their mistakes. Last year was a nightmare for Saruman with Gandalf and the halflings but this year he has chosen his companies with more care and the results are quite promising.

Saruman seems to have delved into negotiations with Durin’s Bane quite early on and they seemed to have Azog on board early as well thus founding the offence. Many questions hover over the true nature of Caradhras as the goalkeeper. His saving percentage is pretty good but not outstanding (79%), but many say they have purposefully held him at bay to only show his real qualities as the real games start.

The defense of Misty Mts. sure is formidable: with two great eagles, the chief wolf and the Watcher very few dare to rush towards them. The Great Goblin and William the Troll make it a huge stopping-zone in the midfield and Narvi provides some craftsmanship and intelligence to the team.

They draw with Anduin only because they wished to test Caradhras and let the opponents purposefully to shoot and they played an even game against Pelori (even if losing 0-1). The two other matches they won easily in a relaxed mode.

Ends up second in the group.

Wilderland 3-1-0
10-4
18,9% 32(53) – 19(41) 79%

Sauron hasn’t win the Arda Cup but once and that makes him ever more hungry for it – and he rarely signs with a lousy side that has no chances to go really far in the tournament. It seems the same this year – and he’s behind the steering wheel this time quite openly – including the fact that he has more or less stayed in the shadows during the friendlies leaving it to his team to make it. Like always, he seems to be happy to support the team with beautiful passes (like he was behind team Armenelos’ victory a few years ago feeding Ar Pharazôn).

But what kind of signings he has gathered this year… Smaug and Scatha around him in the attack! It’s hard to find as intimidating offence from this tournament. But he also signed the three wizards solidifying his defenses – and stealing the always deadly Khâmul was his last master strike.

And Wilderland has been outstanding in the friendlies as well even if their opponenrts haven’t been of the highest quality. The draw with T-I-G could make one wonder as T-I-G hasn’t been that impressive in their other games, but then again that’s the way T-I-G plays only stepping up when they really need to.

So Wilderland will easily win this group unless Saruman provides some real wizardry to outwit Sauron. But looking at the relationship of the two that’s hardly likely.

Wins the group.



Group C
Angband
Anfaughlith (hosts)
Hithlum
The Downer

Angband 3-0-1
8-2
16,3% 23(49) – 16(40) 87,5%

Morgoth leads the defense of a few Balrogs and Draugluin the Werewolf while Ungoliant guards the goal. You know the opponents will not be scoring a lot against that downstairs household. The amazing (and baffling) Tilion keeps being dangerous under Morgoth’s eye third year in a row in midfield, and Tevildo, Thuringwethil and Ancalagon himself go for the offence. Formidable.

Ungoliant was the shared best goalie last year and she has continued where she ended last year, being the trustworthy lock in the defense with 87,5% savings (2 goals from 16 shots on goal) in the friendlies. They gave one goal to Pelori in a tight game where Eönwë the herald scored from a corner and Fëanor’s brothers managed to get one in in a game Beleriand was defeated 1-3 by Angband. So mind you. It will not be easy to score against this backline.

The only problem one might see thus far with Angband’s playing in regards to the play-offs is that only Ancalagon (4+0) and Thuringwethil (3+0) have been scoring majorly (well, any team would be jealous for that kind of scorers, especially two of them in a same team). But they’d need Tilion to get his act together once again to have a third tooth to bite the opponent with.

Anfaughlith is a tough team as well, but it would be a surprise if Angaband didn’t claim the number one seat in this group. Unless the jokers of the group perform miracles…

Anfaughlith 3-0-1
8-4
14,8% 30(54) – 19(40) 79%

The team Anfaughlith is an astonishing combination of the best talent there is rallied around the hill of Haudh-en-Ndengin (Dagor Bragollach and Nirnaeth Arnodiedad) and from the great city of Gondolin tightly webbed with the fates of Ard-Galen. Basically half of the last years champions play for Anfaughlith this year and that must be said is the master-steal of the year by Huor, Rían and Azaghâl (forget Galadriel getting only one Fëanor). And the selected Balrogs aren’t no weak substitutes to the rest of the team, especially Gothmog is a real game-decider. Interestingly enough, the team organisers might be the weakest links of the team…

It’s hard to make a judgement on their friendlies as so many of them have included shooting contests, all out attacks by mutual consent of both teams etc. But their performances have been solid enough – and their defense strong enough even with the shooting contests, that it is easy to predict them to qualify over Hithlum and The Downer. Just look at how they’ll play when the games start for real.

But the two other teams are the real jokers this year and they will make this group extremely interesting.


Hithlum 1-2-1
10-11
18,9% 28(53) – 34(65)

The talk of Arda this year. Last year’s star defenders Celegorm and Curufin insisted on playing offence and Hador dared to hire them with the terms they laid on him. It wasn’t that good in the beginning as they were dominated by Gondolin in their first match (even if it was a draw) and were totally beaten by Doriath (0-4). But when they changed their tactics and started to go all out for offence, Fëanor’s sons started to deliver: Celegorm has scored now 3+1 and Curufin 4+4. Hador has shown that the edain can score as well gathering a nice 3+0 behind his stars.

A lot depends on what tactics Hithlum will choose in the group-phase. The all out attack produces a bunch of goals but also allows the opponent to score back as was seen in their last two friendlies against Mithrim and Tirion. Imlach has been a precious goalie in a few games but he’s not one of the top keepers of the tournament, so can Hador count on him and the fairly untested defense to go on full attack or will he be more careful thus frustrating his top-scorers? The group is really tough and the other teams will score if given room to do that. To be or not to be, that’s the problem Hador now faces.

If Hithlum defences start to hold and Imlach steps up a notch – and Hithlum braves to play offensively – they might challenge Anfaughlith for qualification. But if not, and they leave Celegorm and Curufin without proper feeding in the front, they will end up third or fourth.

The Downer 1-2-1
8-8
15,7% 22(51) – 22(46) 63,6%

The Downer is another talking point of this year’s tournament. It is less that no one expected the AFA authorities to allow for this kind of team to take part (the exception of T-I-G has been quite an everyday thing no one has contested in years), but more the way this team plays.

And they really play an odd game. During the friendlies they have been really aggressive claiming 16 yellow cards in four games (only Mordor comes even close with 15 cards), but they have also confused their opponents by pressing on when every decent team would have withdrawn and vice versa – or starting to play when the opponent thinks there is a mutual consensus that the end-result is okay.

The real question is, that now as the surprise-factor has probably worn out, how will the other teams adjust their play to counter the haphazardness of the Downer team? Pelori already gave them some physical counter-play, a tit-for-tat the first time, and thus causing them their first lost game during the friendlies. Looking at teams like Angband and Anfaughlith it looks like they’re not going to shy away from playing physically if it needs be – so answering the call of The Downer with a lot more strength and stamina The Downer can ever produce.

But one should not forget that the team Downer also has some real talent. Saucepanman is a quality midfielder who scores a lot (4+0). Alien (2+0), hookbill (1+2) and Peter Hampton (1+2) are guys to be watch out for as well. King Bus at the goal hasn’t been the best of goalies and the overall defense of The Downer hasn’t impressed.

The other joker-team of the group. If they manage to confuse the opponents they might even have a chance to qualify, but more probably the other teams just run over them playing it much more physical now as it is time for it and leave them the last in the group. But *knock-knock*, one never knows.



Group D
Barad-Dûr
Eregion (hosts)
Eriador
Gondor

Barad-Dûr 1-1-2
6-9
15,8% 16(38) – 30(62) 70%

After Sauron vanished the “boys of the last alliance”, Gil-Galad and Isildur, were left free floating and everyone thought they would leave the Dark Tower and join some competitive team to play with their friends for a change, but for some unseen reasons they decided to stay there, even alluring Cirdan from the Havens to join them. But it is an uneasy alliance now with Mouth, orcs, a nazgul etc. with the good guys and the focus tying them into that place gone to put up team Wilderland. But as they say, great minds are seldom understood in their time – or in this case even after their time.

The stats of the friendlies are not too flattering for Barad-Dûr, but one would do well to note they have played somewhat tougher opponents than an average team. But it was mainly the rifts inside the team which resulted in Gondor beating them in their last friendly – or was it just revealing their real level?

They will have it tough to advance from the group-phase even in this pretty mediocre group D. And most probably they will not do it.

Eregion 2-1-1
4-3
10,3% 20(39) – 17(38) 82,4%

Eregion has thus far the most solid defense of the group and with the master-keeper Elrond at the goal they can rest assured the opponents will not score a lot. Other than that is hard to say as their friendlies have been more or less played in a practice mode with nice understanding with the opponent of not being too competitive.

Glorfindel has flashed some nice play and Elrohir has been quite spirited as well. People are waiting for Eärendil to wake up though. And if he does, then Eregion has good chances of qualifying. And they do have a good chance anyway as everything in the group is quite open now. So which team goes forwards to the play-offs will be something hard to predict on.

Eriador 1-2-1
7-7
15,2% 24(46) – 22(46) 68,2%

Eriador knows how to score. Aragorn and Barrow-Wight have been really good at it getting great support from Halbarad. Last year’s comet Araphor hasn’t quite reached his level yet but has done decently. But the problem of Eriador lies elsewhere, namely in defense. It’s not that they have the most shots against them or that Arvedui would be a pathetic goalie, but somehow the defense just doesn’t work. And unless Bert stops taking those cards they will end up playing undermanned in every game when the stakes get higher. And that’s not a position to fight even matches.

But the same thing which applied to Eregion applies to Eriador as well: their friendlies are of little evidence to any direction. They were weaker than the numbers tell against Numenor, and their draw with T-I-G was only due to the werewolves freezing with the sight of the Barrow-Wight. Then again they were much better than the numbers show against the Shire-Bree Utd. and their final game with Eregion was a happy match where both teams were just walking it through.

As said, the group is wide open and it is hard to say which teams (except Barad-Dûr who are not qualifying) will make it to the play-offs. Whether there is a glorious path there for anyone team from this group to advance any further, well only a fool would bet on that.

Gondor 3-1-0
10-6
18,5% 24(54) – 22(49) 72,7%

Gondor’s stats from the friendlies look like they’re the clear favourites of the group, but whereas Eregion’s and Eriador’s stats are just hard to read, it looks like Gondor’s stats are plain misleading. They have won three games – and in a more or less competitive athmosphere – but those wins have come from some of the poorest sides in this year’s tournament. Their amazing draw with Westernesse was mainly due to the Numenorians playing with half-speed and letting them to play, some individual talent and sloppiness on behalf of Westernesse’s defenses and goaltending.

On a positive note one must say that Eldacar (5+1) has been on fire during these friendlies, and if he continues that way, the opponents need to really concentrate their defensive efforts. Also Eorl and Arwen have played well.

Gondor has good chances of qualifying, but they can’t be sure of it. In no way.



Group E
Mordor
Nargothrond
The Forest (hosts)
Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Mordor 2-0-2
5-7
13,9% 14(36) – 23(49) 69,6%

Mordor is facing a real leadership-problem.

Nazgul #7 has carried the burden of scoring but he seems not yet ready to fill the boots of the leader of Mordor. Shelob is no team leader – even less than being a team player with the orcs. The same goes with Watcher who could otherwise qualify as someone others look up upon, but he’s too much an individualistic loner to be able or willing to take responsibility of a team effort. Gollum does have personality, but who would follow such a wretched one? The orcs could fight over leadership, but the stars wouldn’t be impressed… So it looks like team Mordor, as it is now, is just a bunch of rag-tag baddies going after a whim, and in the worst instance destroying their own chances.

They did win the lousy Dunharrow team in a sloppy game and Minas Morgul in a more or less practice-like friendly re-union where no one cared about the result. But Gondor was clearly a too strong a team against them and with Westernesse they didn’t stand a chance.

The only chance for Mordor seems to be that Nargothrond turns out as sloppy team they are when the real games begin and Tom Bombadill decides to love flowers more than the game. Or if someone steps up to lead them and the Watcher turns into another mode entirely.

Will not probably qualify.

Nargothrond 0-2-2
4-7
9,5% 20(42) – 21(52) 66,7%

If Tuor has been criticized for making a bad choice willing to lead a team of his own, then some similar kind of criticisms should be sent towards Finduilas as well. Finarfin’s grand-daughter sure has led herself into trouble even if many from the mighty house of Beor did join the team. Glaurung sure is a star but his last season was just wretched and even if he has shown some higher spirits this year he seems past his prime (no wonder Morgoth told him he was too big and slow to fit his team) ith only two goals in four games thus far. Maybe the strict rules Finduilas set for him are an issue as well – like not being allowed to go for Túrin - and he doesn’t quite feel happy with the team?

After all the complaints one could try to see positive things in their game. They were the first to meet the odd team The Downer and got away with it with a draw. Also they played it quite evenly with Gondolin, which is no small feat – and as the man of the match there was Rôg on Gondolin’s goal it actually tells they were doing something right in there. Losing to Doriath only 0-2 is decent as well.

But after all it is a plain fact that their scoring percentage is a sad 9,5% with which no team could dream of making it to the play-offs. If Finduilas could motivate Glaurung to feel happy and do his best, and they could organize their defenses to let the opposition to shoot a little less – and then play as well as they did against Gondolin, well then they might stand a chance to qualify. But there seems to be quite many ifs on the road to play-offs…

The Forest 1-1-2
5-7
12,5% 21(40) – 24(47)

One always wishes to talk of other players than Tom Bombadill in an analysis concerning a team he plays in, but there seems to be no way around it. Once again it is Tom Bombadill who will steal our attention.
So let’s take a worn out example once more. Take Fëanor, take Túrin, take phantomwolf or whichever hero and present them with the Ring of Power. Or take any Maia… They will be either twisting to its will or at least having a great struggle with it – and even if this is pure speculation, it’s not so clear if all of the Valier would be able to ignore it either. But be as it may, the Ring has absolutely no power on Tom. He’s just above that kind of things and no one knows what he is and where he comes from.

The sad thing for any team having him in their roster is that he can be totally above playing football as well picking flowers from a near meadow or delving in his poems. But when he plays he is one of the best, if not The Best player in whole Arda. At least there are only a few who could contest that ranking with him in earnest – if he would happen to be interested in trying out anything g as insignificant as that.

This time around he has shown a considerable amount of interest in the game – maybe it is because Goldberry is playing as well and he has more reasons to focus on things in the field? But he is unforeseeable, which has been seen in the friendlies already – and in the tournaments before.

So if Tom is playing The Forest can go anywhere: the ents can be really tough on both defense and offence if sang to it in the right way – and Thranduil (who has been forgotten by most analysis on team Forest) is a good forward as well. But without decent calling the ents can also be very slow and well, treeish (just remember how the hobbits made fool of them in the first half of the game between the two until Bombadill sang the ents into playing – which changed everything).

A real questionmark then, but unless Tom deserts his team once and for all, then more probable qualifiers than not.

Tol-In-Gaurhoth 2-2-0
10-4
18,5% 29(54) – 18(34) 77,8%

After the trial of playing in a human form last year proving a disaster the T-I-G team has taken back their natural werewolf-form again – and they have been pretty good, if not as dashing as many would have anticipated. But like phantomwolf famously said after the first friendly: “Psh – it’s just friendlies”, and there’s nothing new in here. Traditionally T-I-G only starts playing when it matters.

Anyway, T-I-G are the clear favourites to win this group by a margin – if they just stick to it. But will they be good enough to go far in the tournament this year? Only time will tell.

Putting Gwathwolf up in the offence seems to have been a great idea as he has already produced 3+2. Also Nerwolf is getting her game together having scored three times already. Shastawolf is slowly gearing up and has now an okay goalie savings percent of 77,8%. Phantomwolf has also shown increased interest in the game and has scored a decent 2+1. Sallywolf and Galadwolf have done well in their supporting low midfield role, both securing two shut-outs but also offering two assists to goals each. On the downside Nogwolf has been quite invisible thus far after making one goal in their first match.

Yes, T-I-G will qualify for play-offs but they need to find the edge to their game if they’re to go much further this year.



Group F
Mithrim
Númenor (hosts)
Tol Eressëa
Westernesse

Mithrim 0-0-4
3-13
7,1% 17(42) – 33(58) 60,6%

Many a great name has weared the jerseys of team Mithrim, but this year those heroes will feel ashamed of the level of the team they have represented earlier years. This year Mithrim is just a shadow of their former days of glory. They have problems in scoring, but even worse problems in keeping their own goal clean – and it’s not only the problem of Tuor in the goal (even if it is partly also his problem) but the problem of the whole defense which just isn’t able to keep the opponent’s forwards away from shooting. They have allowed 13 goals in just four games and Tuor’s saving percentage is a dismal 60,6%. And meanwhile they have scored only three goals themselves thus far.

Even more worrisome however is the fact that every time the opponent has shown some interest in playing it for real (or just having an interest in controlling the game) Mithrim has been more or less overrun by them – and two of their three goals were made in a game against Hithlum where Hithlum threw everything forwards to practice goal-scoring (making four) leaving Mithrim more than ample room to score themselves (only two) – a situation they will not see during the group-play.

Looking at the other teams in the group every sign predicts an early exit to team Mithrim this year, which is a pity, looking at the proud history of the team’s banner.

Númenor 1-2-1
3-4
10% 14(30) – 20(45) 80%

Númenor is one of those teams it is very hard to say anything but impressions as most of their friendlies have been played in practise mode or just plain slow and unwilling to show off anything or to wear out the players. Being the hosts of the group one might though expect some real action from them when the group-phase finally begins. And anyway, it will be a battle between them and Tol-Eressëa for the second place in the play-offs as Westernesse will walk there quite easily.

But to those impressions then. They were a bit better than Eriador (which is not a lot, but something) and they seemed quite even with Beleriand (which is something) – and clearly the weaker team against Valinor (which was predictable). Their last game against Tol-Eressëa gave out nothing as both teams tried to avoid showing anything to the opponent as they will meet in the first game of the group phase. But the teams ending in 0-0 tells a lot about both teams.

The fact that they are the hosts and the feeling that they have been holding back a lot during the friendlies might speak of their behalf to qualify. But it looks like Tol-Eressëa has been holding their horses (waves?) as well so it is a tough call. But either one will advance to play-offs anyway.

On the positive note, Silmariën has proved to be a decent goalie and their defense stands cool.

Tol-Eressëa 0-2-2
1-4
2,9% 16(34) – 20(41) 80%

If Númenor has scoring problems, then I’m not sure what to call the situation Tol-Eressëa has in their hands. They have scored one goal (1 goal!) in four friendlies. And that’s all. Friendlies or not, but that is pathetic.

Ulmo leads a very solid defense, a stellar one it could be said, and Amandil is a right man between the posts (80% saving ratio is pretty good), but they just haven’t scored. Is this some sneaky tactics by Ulmo and they will surprise everyone when the real games begin or is it just that Uinen is a) not fit to carry the burden of being responsible for scoring, or b) is he just too alone in offence?

Looking at the friendlies it could be said that both T-I-G and Tirion just didn’t let them attack (and the game against Númenor doesn’t count, see the previous entry for details). The positive note could be found from their game against Beleriand where they actually got 7(12) shots made and only Halmir’s good day on goal denied them an equalizer – but even that game was quite sloppy, by both teams.

Everything else would point towards Númenor running over Tol-Eressëa in the group phase, them being hosts and all, but somehow it just feels like Ulmo has with-held more of his cards than others – even if it feels like team Numenor has also kept a thing or two out of sight as yet.

But a scoring percent of 2,9%! Even Dunharrow scores 5,4% of their shots – and Tirion scores 20,7%; in this group Westernesse scores 17,5%, with double the shots…

Odd, too odd – and thus very tough to predict.

Westernesse 2-1-0
10-2
17,5% 30(57) – 17(35) 88,2%

Westernesse’s defense has been only a little bit better than those of Númenor and Tol-Eressëa, but that’s the only thing one can meaningfully compare the teams. On all other fronts Westernesse is not just better but on a totally different level.

Tar Atanamir has been the second best keeper thus far and he will not be an easy guy to pass in the oncoming games – especially to teams who have problems shooting & scoring to begin with.

Secondly, Númenor has scored three goals and Tol-Eressëa one goal. Looking at the cream of individual players from team Westernesse shows the difference: Ar Pharazôn 3+2, Elros 3+1, Ar Adunakhôr 2+1, Tar Minastir 1+2… Mardil alone (1+1) scores even with team Tol-Eressëa. ‘nuff said.

Thirdly, unlike the other teams of the group, Westernesse has dominated their friendlies at will – even when playing half-speed. The one game against Valinor was different, but there both teams played without a play-book and only went with individual talent. And that was an even game which Westernesse nevertheless won. It’s hard to see any other team from this group winning Valinor, whichever mode the game would be played.

So Westernesse will win the group – and could go far in the tournament. Their worst problem is round 1 of the play-offs where they will meet either Angband or Anfaughlith, both potential finalists this year. But if they survive from there, sky’s the limit.