[Nogrod]

Group G
Beleriand
Gondolin
Pelori
Valinor (hosts)

Beleriand 2-1-1
6-5
14,3% 19(42) – 20(46) 75%

Beleriand would be a serious contester to qualify from almost any other group, but in this “group of death” their fate is to be eliminated. And that’s just a cruel fact. It looks clear the fine sons of Finarfin have just been thrown to the lions in AFA group-lottery. They really challenged Angband, they played even with Numenor (even if not full speed), they beat Mithrim 3-1 walk-in-a-park style…

What remains to be seen is whether they or Gondolin will be the last team in the group.

With Celegorm and Curufin turning from star-defenders to star strikers a new concept was born and it looks like Aegnor and Angrod are trying to accomplish the same (it actually looks like Finarfin’s sons came up with the idea first), but with results clearly lagging behind that of the sons of Fëanor. Celegor and Curufin had their problems in the first games but now they’re looking quite impressive with Celegorm at 3+1 and Curufin at 4+4. But unlike them, Aegnor and Angrod have only been pretty good defenders, not stellar ones like Fëanor’s sons. Secondly, Aegnor has managed 2+2 and Angrod 1+1 thus far. Not bad but far from the other brothers.

Of the two teams Beleriand has the edge on offence and Gondolin on defense. But a place in the play-offs will remain a dream to the two as Pelori and Valinor will just fly there on their homeground.

Gondolin 1-1-2
5-6
9,8% 23(51) – 28(46)

As said before, team Gondolin was the champion of last year only to be stolen the cream of their team for this season. But no worries, King Turgon himself came back with half of last year’s silver-medalists from team Vinyamar. And the team looks very solid, able to qualify or at least seriously challenge for qualification… in any other group but this.

And to add to Turgon’s problems some elves in Gondolin have been also questioning the wisdom of some of his decisions which they claim if done otherwise could have made a difference and make them competitive enough to really fight for qualification even in this group of death. The issue mainly revolves around Penlod, Duilin and Egalmoth.

Penlod earned “The Clutch Performer of the Year” award in 2010 as a forward for Vinyamar. Nevertheless Turgon decided to make him the deepest defender in front of the goal. His talent in scoring, and scoring at the right time is something the team now lacks, the critics say. Instead, Turgon named Duilin and Egalmoth as the team’s forwards. They were quality midfielders last year and played well in offence scoring and assisting a few goals, but they are no strikers who will deliver every night, several goals every night, the criticism continues.

Turgon has mainly tried to shut the mouths of his critics by scoring. And he has done quite well in that. But the questions, many elves feel, remain unanswered for the time being.

So a good team but not good enough to really challenge the Valier teams who look much more competitive and dangerous this year than any year before. Fights with Beleriand from the third place.

Pelori 4-0-0
6-2
14,3% 20(42) – 22(45) 90,9%

Manwë’s teams have been accused of conservative play, being too happy to just defend, or just to be too nice to all the “goodie-teams” and not being competitive enough to really play and risk some goodie-opponents feel bad.

Whether that criticism is fair or not is anybody’s opinion, but it looks like Manwë is not going to give up his style of play even if some of his great Valier left his team for this year’s tournament: Pelori has won all its games with one goal difference in the friendlies again… And the team really plays conservatively in general trusting even more to goal-keeping this year as Manwë himself has taken the post between the posts. Saving percentage of 90,9% is just superb, but then again what else would you get from the Ruler of Arda?

But there is an interesting twist to Manwë’s game an avid follower of the games might have spotted. Pelori did indeed get physical to beat The Downer. Some (self-)righteous anger over a team that doesn’t play by the book or a new facet of Manwë’s team? A good question. But clearly not too Manwë-like.

Winning Angband when part of the game was played for real and forcing the odd ones, The Downer, to their first defeat just tells how ready this team is for the competition even if it has played most of the time with half-speed, or less.

Unless Manwë becomes too cordial and lets Beleriand or Gondolin to surprise him at the last minutes there is no way either of the two will beat Pelori to the play-offs.

Valinor 3-0-1
8-2
15,1% 29(53) – 12(30) 83,3%

Even if they lost one of their friendlies, Valinor still looks like “the dangerous team”. It’s not only that it is led by Tulkas who broke up with Manwë to play some more daring football with a quality-company, but it is also the relaxed easiness they have sailed from victory to another.

And that game they lost to Westernesse, well you could forget it as it was game where neither team played organizedly as not to show their cards to their probable opponents later in the tournament, and the winner for Westernesse was a lucky one deflection.

Other than the game against Westernesse (serious contenders for this year’s Cup and an unusual game anyway), Valinor dominated the friendlies at will: controlling the possession, scoring when willing to, calling the pace of the games… Add to that the crushing talent of their offence: Miriel, Nerdanel and Arien (consistently on the top of scoring year by year – beautiful steals to his team by Tulkas), a midfield led by Olwë and Yavanna (who at last seems to have found a team she plays well with!) and a defense led by Tulkas himself with Ingwë at the goal saving 83,3% of the shots on target. A strong team indeed.

It is clear Pelori and Valinor will battle it out – or if Manwë plays it “nicely” then they will gove the win to Valinor – the other two teams will be just onlookers this time, even if they are highly competitive teams. The last thing to confirm that prediction is just to reminisce the last year’s tournament and the way how the Valier looked after their own teams when playing in the West. It is no nice or easy place for a visiting team to play.

Whether Valinor wins the group or whether Pelori does is anybody’s guess. But those two will qualify.