[Boromir88]

Group D

Predicted Standings
1. Eregion
2. Eriador
3. Gondor
4. Barad-dur

This is one of the more difficult groups to figure out. Where so far A-C have been easier identifying where the teams stand either as favorites or a fighters chance (or no chance) to advance, this one looks far more up in the air.

In the end TTN believes it's Eregion's to lose. That is to say, we place them as the favorites, but are not confident in this choice and would not be shocked if they did not win the group. All signs say they should. Elrond wins games with keeping his goal clean, and last year the defense struggled to help their Lord. This year has seen a definite improvement with Celebrimbor and Asfaloth signed to the team. Earendil did not show up in the friendlies and somehow Eregion still went 2-1-1. Fans are waiting for him to heat up as they know he is more than able too, and right now criticism of the high priced signing has been tame because Eregion fans are distracted by Figwit's presense.

Who gets 2nd? We like Eriador because of Arvedui and Araphor's run last beating Manwe's Valinor team in the 1st playoff round. They rise up big on the bigger occasions and if they managed a respectable 1-2-1 in the friendlies, just think how they will show up on the primetime stage? The trolls added to the defense may backfire, but it's not terrible, and part of the problem is actually Arvedui at goal who isn't up to his standard from last year.

Based on Gondor's results and numbers, shouldn't we like them above Eriador? Eh, don't know how to describe it, or why I feel Eriador will edge out Gondor for 2nd. Defensively the teams performed almost identically and the only difference is Ecthelion II stopped one more shot than Arvedui. I look at Gondor and see a respectable team, and a team hard to beat because they won't beat themselves, but what is Boromir I doing playing as a DF? And Eriador has the late game intangibles, Araphor has an uncanny ability to score crucial goals late, and Aragorn's leadership is unrivalled.

Of course with how hard we're finding it to pick between Eriador and Gondor, it's completely possible both advance and send Eregion home packing.

There's talent on Barad-dur too, but I'd pick the co-operative teamwork of Gondor and Eriador over the discombombulated talent on Barad-dur. When Sauron was at his Tower last year the baddies fell in line to play with the goodies. Sauron's gone now, Gil-Galad's taken the leadership role but the baddies are no longer falling in line. Their backline is too disoriented and we wonder why then not place Anarion up front and put The Mouth in charge of the defense? At least that way the DF may have a bit more organization to it.

Round 1 Predictions

Barad dur vs. Eriador - Let's see if Arvedui's reasons for adding the trolls and Barrow-wight to the team pays off. He wanted to be able to stand up to the more evil minded teams. But this will be a weird game because it's Isildur, Gil Galad and Cirdan on the attack for Barad dur, and the trolls will have trouble containing them. Arvedui will have to be on his best form. With that said, Araphor, Aragorn, and The B-W should have their way against Barad dur's defense too.
Draw 2-2

Eregion vs. Gondor - It will likely take 2-goals to beat Eregion in this one, and 2-goals against Elrond is outside Gondor's ability. Question is, can they get 1? I can see it ending in a 1-1 draw, but if Earendil is ready to play it'll more than likely be a 2-1 win for Eregion. Although, TTN is going to say...
Eregion wins 1-0

Phantasy spin -

GK - Elrond is really the only keeper I'd feel ok about picking from this group. He's costly, but shuts down the goal and that's all there is to it. Out of the group stages he's always one of the top point getters for GK's.

DF - And as Elrond is the only GK, I would consider picking, same with Eregion's defense. It's not that Eriador and Gondor are horrible defensively but 1. The trolls pick up a lot of cards and 2. They allow a lot of shots, so unless the GKs are superb you're going to score on their defenses. Where Elrond is always superb and therefor his defenses are always a lock for phantasy points (and they don't foul often). The downside is, Eregion's defense doesn't venture too far up field so they won't be involved in the attack very often. With that said, Celebrimbor is the only one who costs 1-star (and Celebrimbor in the past has made a couple assists as a defender).

MF - Of the mid-fielders over the past couple years, Arwen has been the most consistant one. Although, in the 1st round of games with Gondor going up against Eregion, safer selections would be someone from the Barad-dur or Eriador MF, since there will likely be more goals in that game. Right now, I'd feel better taking Aragorn before Gil-Galad, or the Barrow-wight as a cheaper option.

FW - The FWs I like best from this group are Eldacar and Eorl, and you can get them for no star cost. I'd hold off on Earendil to see if he can play under his son's style, but there's no doubt that Elf is a hammer at the front. Araphor also has the knack of scoring goals, he does it every year and no reason to believe he's suddenly lost that ability, even with the subpar friendlies.