[Nogrod]

Group H
Dunharrow (hosts)
Lothlórien
Minas Morgul
Minas Tirith


Dunharrow 0-1-3
2-8
5,4% 13(37) – 28(48) 71,4%

The muster of Rohan doesn’t seem to be what it used to. The eorlinga have been a disappointment, to put it in cordial terms. To put it frankly, they have been lousy. The new and old talent don’t seem to mix and their game has been almost as inconsistent as that of The Downer. The saddest proof was their last friendly in which they went against Wilderland with a rough and aggressive stance only to be beaten up badly.

Now as with many teams one can say they have played it not with the full steam and have left some aces into their sleeves for the group-play. And that is possible. Especially their games against Eregion and Anduin are ones it’s hard to say how a real game would have ended. But that actually reveals something: the teams it looks plausible they might have beaten if there was a reserve from where to draw some energy and stamina to their game are Eregion and Anduin; two other very lousy teams this year.

So even if group H is one of the weakest, if not the weakest, in this year’s tournament it is hard to predict any success to Dunharrow.


Lothlórien 2-0-2
4-4
11,4% 16(35) – 18(36) 77,8%

There has been a lot of talk and rumour around Galadriel and Fëanor and their personal relations. This is not a place to continue looking at that side of the situation, but looking at how Lothlórien’s game is organized the two have something to do with their problem.

Lothlórien defends pretty well – and we know Galadriel insists playing defensively: they have only allowed four goals (including a game against Valinor where they allowed two) and Galadriel’s saving percentage is quite good at 77,8%. They have a level or two better defense than the other teams of their group.

But the problem is scoring. If they have only allowed four goals, they have produced only four goals themselves. And that from a team which has Fëanor himself as the striker up front! It looks like Fëanor might be right in his complaints that he is being left too alone up in the attack and the balls just don’t get delivered to him often enough into decent enough places so that he could do what goal-scorers by the mercy of the Valar can do best aka. to score.

It looks quite clear that Lothlórien will qualify from the group just because the others will have hard time trying to break their defense and because the defenses of the others are basically so bad that Fëanor will just walk past them to score taking the ball with him from the defense if it’s not delivered to him otherwise.

But a word of caution to the play-offs. Something tells one Lothlórien is one of those teams actually hiding something. In their second game they actually scored three of their four goals. The opponent was Esgaroth and as such it was not a feat Gladriel’s grandchildren would be told about as mummy’s day of glory, but on that game they started using counter-attack tactics on the second half being losing 0-1 after the first half – and they won 3-1, in one half.

After that game they have never come back to that tactics but have just kicked the ball around – or like with the last friendly against Anduin where they took some tough playing in the beginning and after they scored they pulled back and for the second half just totally shut the game down.

So if the public rift is only a decoy or a bait, then we might see a team Lothlórien seriously able to challenge other teams also in the play-offs. But if there are some real disagreements as how to play when the going gets tougher, then Lothlórien will drop off from the games after their first play-off game.


Minas Morgul 1-0-3
5-9
8,8% 26(57) – 20(41) 55%

Let’s start with an interesting piece of data. Teams Doriath and Tirion have been the most active shooters in the friendlies (making 58 shots in four games each). Minas Morgul is the third most active shooter with 57 shots! And only one of their games can be called a “friendly-friendly” (and they shot a little less than average in that friendlier game) where one could say there could have been some mutually arranged practice-shooting sessions some teams have had.

But whereas Doriath has scored 12 goals (shooting percentage 20,7%) and Tirion 9 goals (15,5%), Minas Morgul has only scored 5 (8,8%). Therein lieth the problem.

But not only there. They have a huge problem in between their posts, and that problem has a name, Eärnur. Admittedly he played way better in their last game against Minas Tirith – but a kind of battle-frenzy seems to have taken hold of the whole team in that match. But even counting the last game, his saving percentage is only 55% - and in the game against Barad Dûr it was 25% (letting in three shots from four)!

The good news will be the following: Angband has a rock-solid defense which held them at bay (and they would do the same to most of the teams in the competition this year), in the game against Barad Dûr they had clearly more chances but Ohtar at the goal denied them the victory more or less alone – and when they really engaged themselves into fury they won Minas Tirith convincingly (the game against Mordor was just a fun reunion). So maybe, just maybe they have in them more than meets the eye?


Minas Tirith 0-0-4
5-11
10,9% 22(46) – 27(57) 59,6%

The hope for Minas Tirith lies in the possibility that they have met a bit more quality teams many others have. They played close against Gondor and The Downer – and the quality of those two will tell a lot about Minas Tirith’s quality as well. Angband just ran over them and so did Minas Morgul – but on the latter case there is the fact that they will meet again in the group-phase and if Minas Tirith is wise they try other tactics than getting all heated which is just the playing-style Minas Morgul loves to play – and knows how to play.

Looking at the stats they should beat Dunharrow, but taking on Minas Morgul and Lothlórien demand they play well better they have done thus far.

A sad fact telling a lot of the quality of the younger generation of the heroes of Minas Tirith is that the ancient Tarondor they dug up from the grave is easily their most effective player thus far. Oh, these are sorry days for the Great City of Gondor.