Now after all that writing, I can finally take a breath and decide what to think of 
Nog.
To add to the things above, he only "noticed" 
Lottie's "slip" after 
Shasta's analysis. And he was the last one to vote 
Lottie.
Despite that, he does not give me a bad gut-feeling, and at most of the time is quite reasonable.
Edit: xed with 
Nog. You're not the only one with a computer like that! (mine ate an extremely long post yesterday...)