[Nogrod]

The final round of group play is approaching! Here are the latest takes on the last games by the AKM


Group A

Doriath vs Shire-Bree United

Doriath is on fire this year and Shire-Bree Utd. has no chance to qualify. There is no question which team will win, but there is a question though if Doriath will play too relaxedly to just save energies for the play-offs – for even if they lose they will qualify, and it would take a real bashing for them to be dropped on the second place of this group.

Shire-Bree has only their honour to sell here, but there’s little to sell this time around: with a goal-scoring percentage of 3,7% they are the second worst this time around. And having Butterbur saving 53,3% of the shots it’s hard to see a surprise here, even if Doriath played loosely.

Himring vs Tirion

The real killer match! Other one will qualify, the other will be left into the group-stage. And there is a clear difference between the teams: Tirion has a more effective attack while Himring’s defenses are a bit stronger.

The AKM goes for Tirion to win the game. The forwards and attacking midfielders of Tirion like Finwë, Aredhel, Finrod Felagund, Mahtan and Finarfin, backed by Aulë himself and Caranthir in defense and Orodreth on goal just look so much stronger than Himring, even if they have the Silmaril-bearer Maedhros the tall or his good friend Fingon the Valiant on their ranks. They have a few decent helpers in their team but not enough to beat Tirion.


Group B

Anduin vs Esgaroth

Anduin will give their best on this match switching to full attack as their only chance to qualify rests on them winning and the Misty Mts. losing their game against Wilderland - and even in that situation there is a 4-goal gap to tie up…

Esgaroth is probably the single worst team in the tournament and it would be a miracle if Anduin lost. But whether Anduin reaches a win big enough against the proud dwellers of areas around Lake Town is another question.

A tough better might go for some of the forwards or attacking midfielders of Anduin this round… well a daring one could do that.

Misty Mts vs Wilderland

Wilderland has secured their qualification and they would hate to meet Valinor on the first stage of the play-offs. Knowing Sauron’s capability of looking towards greater goals for himself instead of being nice to possible allies it looks clear Wilderland will not be aiding Misty Mts., at least too much. It’s the classic Sauron vs. Saruman game here where no-one bets their money on Saruman.

Misty Mts. needs a point to qualify for sure and a small defeat would most probably be enough against Wilderland. So they might go for a draw to begin with and try to defend like crazy for it. So a lot depends on how vane Sauron is and how much better contenders against Valinor he thinks Misty Mts. in comparison to Andui; for sure Misty Mts. would wear them down a lot more than Anduin? So maybe we’re not seeing the beating the numbers would propose?


Group C

Hithlum vs The Downer

The two teams have no chance of qualifying so it’s up to the honour of the teams at stake. It’s hard to see any honour in team Downer but Celegorm, Curufin and Hador should make a feast of goals just to retain their dignity.

Hithlum beats them 6-0 just for the sake of it. Phantasy-point betters: notice this! Unless Celegorm and Curufin get mad and will not play…

Angband vs Angfauglith

Both teams have qualified but there is a lot at stake here. It’s the question of principle (even if inside team Anfaughlith the principle might be a different one as regards a player) as both teams are going truly for the final.

But even more importantly, the problem is that the winner of the group has a road paved for the semis at least while the loser would need to face Westernesse on the first play-off round – if clearing that T-I-G on the next one… and then most probably Valinor – or a team that would have won it!

So even if the prospect of meeting Doriath in the semis is not that appealing, it is a much more an easier way than needing to go through all those strong teams the other side of the table has to offer for the second team of the group.

The teams will clash in earnest and with full effort. Both teams score well, but there is a marked difference: Anfaughlith has a problem at their goal: Huor has been just a bad goalie this season, to put it bluntly (50% saving ratio) while Ungoliant has been decently good record (80%). Then again Maeglin has been phenomenal this year and Gothmog has not trailed that far behind him; but Ancalagon and Thuringwethil have been strong as well – and if Tilion or Morgoth rise to the occasion… well then Anfaughlith is in trouble.


Group D

Barad-Dur vs Gondor

This is a tough one. Both teams played 2-2 against Eriador (Eriador with 2 points now in contrast to their 1 point, but facing Eregion in the last match) and lost to Eregion 0-2. So both teams have a chance to qualify if Eregion does not lose.
The two teams are quite tied in the stats. Barad Dûr is a slight favourite to win (scoring percentge 9,1% vs. 8,3% / goalie’s saving percentage 69,2% vs. 66,7%), but the diffrences are marginal.

So in the end it is the question whether Gil-Galad and Isildur can get the odd bunch of the Mouth, Fellbeasts, Cirdan and others to play together or whether Eorl can get his troops with Arwen, Eldacar and Echtelion to rally behind him.
The AKM predicts Barad Dûr will win the game – unless it is a draw.

Eregion vs Eriador

Elrond has a great respect to Aragorn and Araphor, not to talk of the other kings of the north, and they have already won the group. So will Eregion play to the full or will they just play it easy to keep their energies to the play-offs?

One thing we know for sure is that Eregion will not be too happy to admit a goal as Elrond’s saving percentage shows a pure 100% right now, and they see no reason to change that. But it must be added team Eriador would be such a nicer team to qualify with them than Baras Dûr…

So does this spell a 0-0? Hopefully not.



Groups E-H to follow tomorrow...