[Nogrod]

Group E

Mordor vs Tol In Gaurhoth

The werevolwes are already through to the play-offs and they have been playing a bit sloppy at times when there is nothing at stake for them; but on the other hand one would think Mordor would be an opponent they’d like to beat just for the fun of it. If they get into it there is no way Mordor will prevail, so in the end it’s the attitude of the T-I-G that will decide the outcome of the match.

Mordor on the other hand needs points desperately to qualify and they will give their best. Is it enough against the werewolves is another question entirely.

Starting from same points before the final round with The Forest who have a lot weaker opponent against them doesn’t promise well for the Mordor side, but it is clear they will fight.

Nargothrond vs The Forest

Nargothrond has been unquestioningly one of the major disappointments this year. Somehow Beor the Old, Glaurung and Finduilas have not been able to pull their act together – which looked at from certain angle is not that surprising. But against such an unpredictable team as The Forest one can’t throw away the chance they might surprise. The stress is on the word ‘might’.

The Forest has a decent chance to qualify. Their goal difference is two goals minus whereas Mordor is at even, but T-I-G has won both their earlier matches 3-0, and in that case even a draw would do for them.

The question is then more or less only about Tom Bombadill and his willingness to get interested in the game. As a positive sign one could note that Bombadill stayed quite focused in their earlier game against Mordor gathering a nice 2+1. With Tom leading his team the ents can play decent football and Thranduil, Saeros and River Woman can actually score as well.

The AKM would not wish to bet on the outcome of this group, but if it was forced to do that, it would bet on The Forest to qualify.


Group F

Mithrim vs Tol Eressëa

Tuor and his bunch of men have only theoretical chances of qualifying as they would have to win Tol Eressëa with three goals. Seeing that Númenor wasn’t able to score against Tol Eressëa at all and even Westernesse had to settle with only two goals against them it looks like a mission impossible, not the least because Mithrim has managed to score only one goal in their first two matches themselves. So very much an uphill struggle for Mithrim.

Tol Eressëa has one of the most solid defences of the tournament and even if Uinen and Elwing have been all but flashing, they should be able to score once or twice to win the match comfortably. With a win from Mithrim they would be strong candidates to qualify with a win over Númenor in their pocket as well. But it will not be in their hands.

Númenor vs Westernesse

Practically Númenor needs to win Westernesse to qualify as the chances for Tol Eressëa to fall against Mithrim are slim indeed. But is there any believable chance they could do it? An honest answer to the question would have to be no. But this time there is a slight “but” involved in the form of brotherly love.

If Westernesse lets Númenor win the game they could help team Númenor to qualify over Tol Eressëa. Now Ar Pharazôn denied that possibility with quite strong words, but then again Elros is the captain of the team and calls the shots.

Even if the AKM wants to remind readers of this possibility, it would not be betting on it itself. Even if the Westernesse players from Númenor loved their brothers and sisters and held the glory of Númenor dear, it’s hard to see them acting unsportsmanlikely like that – or willing to lose to anyone in the first place, even to their kin.


Group G

Beleriand vs Gondolin

The air of group G has been quite bitter after the scandal of the Nogrodian dwarves and it is extremely hard to predict what will follow. If Valinor allows Pelori even one point it will be totally insignificant what happens in the match between Beleriand and Gondolin. But that will not be known to the teams as they will be meeting before the Valier-teams match-up.

If both teams would play it seriously and with full effort one would need to say it would be a very close game to call with Beleriand maybe slight favourites.

But a few “buts” enter here. First of all Gondolin has no chance to qualify any more, how will that affect their game? Secondly, it seems at least some folks at Gondolin feel for the team Beleriand and are quite upset with the way the issue with the dwarves has been handled; so would they go as far as to help Beleriand to give it back to Manwë by losing big-time as it doesn’t matter to them success-wise? And would that happen, would it in turn affect the late game and how team Valinor plays?

Be that as it may, one of the big question around this year’s tournament still is, what went wrong in Gondolin? They lost a lot of the best talent there is but gained more or less as much. Still they have lost their chances of qualifying already after the two first rounds of group-play. Many fingers do point towards Turgon – some even say it’s not the first time Turgon has been fore-warned and he has not paid heed to the imminent disaster…

Pelori vs Valinor

Many say Manwë’s teams play the dull and opponent-friendly game caring more about defense than offense – and more about good relations between them and the opponents than going for it big time. And this year’s tournament seems to have proven those many right once again. In the friendlies they won every match they played – with one goal difference!

And they have continued that strategy also in the group-phase – although Beleriand managed a last minute equaliser messing it up one time. So the question becomes, how good they really are, can they challenge the very strong-looking Valinor side if the competition will be real? Or is Manwë planning to compensate the Belerianders for the wrong-doing he deemed necessary?

But as said in the earlier review, Pelori needs only one point to qualify which means they need a draw – unless Beleriand doesn’t win with at least two goals, which they will know when their game begins…

Even if the issue has been speculated here and there, it is hard to see Tulkas giving in an inch to help his brother to qualify. He set up his team to show he liked different football and the game between the two should be the showcase for him to hammer it in his way is the better one.

So it’s up to how good and how willing the Pelori actually are.


Group H

Minas Morgul vs Minas Tirith

Minas Morgul needs only to beat the weakest side of the group to make their qualification most probable. And the bigger numbers they score, the more probable the qualification (the chance of Dunharrow to beat Lothlórien is relatively non-existent, but in case that would happen the probability of them beating lady Galadriel’s team big time is more or less zero). So expect Minas Morgul to go for scoring, even if that hasn’t been their strongest weapon thus far.

There is one big question that is on everybody’s lips when speaking of team Minas Morgul, and that is, what has happened to the Witch King? He has been one of the most effective scorers every year thus far, and he hasn’t always had a great host of talent around him to score by himself. But somehow he is not playing up to his level. Nowhere near!

Some claim he has said feeling a bit thin lately, but some others claim he’s just been taking it easy the first two matches and will blast a hat-trick against Minas Tirith – would there be a better team against which to wake up for him?

If the supporters of the Minas Tirith team are counted off, it’s hard to see any sane person betting on them on this match (whether Minas Tirith supporters can be said to be a sane bunch in the first place is another matter we will not dwell into here). Eomer and Faramir haven’t gotten anything done and Eowyn has made herself noticed only with two yellow cards.

Dunharrow vs Lothlórien

Dunharrow and Lothlórien were both real disappointments during the friendlies but have shown a bit more effective side of their teams in the group-play. But there is a marked difference in the quality of the teams still. The battlehardened Rohanians have shown some stamina but less flair. Sadly, even if lady Galadriel could pity them Fëanor will not.

What comes to Lothlórien, it is interesting to see that after all that row during the friendlies they have really pulled themselves together in the group phase. The 3-0 win over Minas Tirith was quite promising indeed, and Legolas is just hot! If Fëanor finds his silmaril-boot, they could seriously talk about being competitive semifinalists.

And it’s not only that the team has started working better, but Galadriel has also shown – after a few disappointing years – that she is a quality keeper who can win games.

So it’s looking bright for Lothlórien and less so for Dunharrow.