[Boromir88]

OCTOFINALS - PREDICTIONS
BoroLXXXVIII, Two Towers Network

Round 3 saw somewhat of a drop off in accuracy from Round 2, but still feeling pretty good. Especially since my phantasy team picked up the sluggish start, and now with the playoffs starting, another comeback in the mix? I think so.

In a battle of journalistic integrity verses fanaticism, I must say that the Felagundian has it slightly better as far as their favorite teams remaining and the chances of those teams. The mood within the Two Tower's Broadcast is pretty depressed from the pathetic showing of their teams. Minas Tirith and Gondor were garbage and their players looked lifeless. Minas Morgul and Barad-dur managed to sneak in, but they're about to get blown out of the playoffs by the Doriath and Tol In Gaurhoth machines. Not looking sunny for The Two Towers Network of teams this year, that's for sure.

Still, there's a job to be done and since I have no choice but to be fair and objective, no one wants to miss this...

(For easy reading, after rating all the teams in offense, defense, and goal keeping, the team next to the category is the one we feel has the advantage in the match. So, Match 1, Doriath has the advantage in all 3. And "even" means we could not find any significant advantage/disadvantage between the teams matched up.

Match 1 - Minas Morgul at Doriath

OFF: Doriath

DEF: Doriath

GK: Doriath

Prediction: You get the picture right? Minas Morgul fans will travel to Dunharrow, but they won't make the trip all the way to Doriath just to see them get creamed. In every aspect of the game Doriath is furlongs ahead of the Tower of Sorcery, and there will be a huge home crowd advantage in Melian and Thingol's realm. 3-0 Doriath

Match 2 - Valinor at Wilderland

OFF: Even

DEF: Wilderland

GK: Wilderland

Prediction: It seems as if Wilderland will have the edge here, just based on the numbers (and they're staying at home). However, I think it wise to take into account the relative difficulty of the groups. Valinor was in a First Age loaded group, and also another Valar team, while Wilderland was in an all Third Age group and they had some bit of difficulty with it. Wilderland's only confident win was against Esgaroth, and everyone knows how low life that team was this year. Anduin and Misty Mts gave them some fits, which doesn't spell success against an angered Valinor team. It'll be a high scoring affair, and probably one of the better matches in this round. 3-2 Valinor

Match 3 - Tol Eressea at Angband

OFF: Angband

DEF: Tol Eressea

GK: Even

Prediction: Tol Eressea's got a stingy defense, but they're going to try to hold out indefinitely against Morgoth. And as Morgoth usually does, he'll just wear you down then knock you out in a swift stroke. Tol Eressea's attack will do absolutely nothing against Angband's defense. Amandil's given up 2 goals, Ungoliant 4 and that may be seen as a significant difference. But Amandil is protected more by Ulmo's defense, and Ungoliant had to face some of the tournaments deadliest boots in the group stage (Gothmog and Maeglin on Angfauglith. Hador, Curufin and Celegorm on Hithlum). If you think Ungoliant's going to be scared of Uinen, Elwing, and Earwen, think again. Angband wins 2-0

Match 4 - The Forest at Eregion

OFF: Eregion

DEF: Eregion

GK: Eregion

Prediction: Another one on paper that looks one-sided towards Eregion. Elrond is not known for a high-powered offense, but fact of the matter is they scored 7 goals compared to The Forest's 6. And I don't need to get into how much better defensively Eregion is, or how dominant Elrond is (the outright phantasy points leader so far. He's got 22 and this is simply unheard of that GK is leading in points!) Still, Elrond's teams have underperformed in the playoffs in the past, and you never know what magic Bombadil can conjure up. If anyone can put 2 goals passed Elrond, Bombadil can. Too bad that won't happen here. 2-0 Eregion

Match 5 - Barad Dur at Tol In Gaurhoth

OFF: TIG

DEF: TIG

GK: TIG

Prediction: This will be another massacre like Match 1. Barad-Dur's in here by luck and struggled to just make it out of a weak group. TIG's group wasn't particularly stronger, but they dominated it, plain and simple. 4-1 TIG

Match 6 - Angfauglith at Westernesse


OFF: Angfauglith

DEF: Westernesse

GK: Westernesse

Prediction: This is what we consider the marquee match of the round, it could easily be a championship battle. Westernesse will be favored, but we're going with Angfauglith and here's why. Angfauglith averaged 3 goals per game, in a group that had Angband. Westernesse hadn't surrendered a goal, but in case if you didn't notice no one in Group F could score (except Westerenesse). This will be Westernesse's and Tar Atanamir's first test of an offense with bite and fire too it, which is not good if you're defense is just getting it's first test at this stage. And Angfauglith's 6 goals given up is a bit mis leading. 1. They were in an offensively loaded group. 2. Fingolfin's defense only gave up 33 shots, and 14 on target, they're a nice defensive team. The problem was Huor's goal-tending, but in case you haven't seen Huor in the playoffs this guy won a championship last year, took Dor-Lomin to the quarter-finals the year before, and took Hithlum to 2nd place in '08 as a GK. Draw 2-2. Angfauglith wins shoot out 3-2

Match 7 - Misty Mts at Pelori

OFF: Even

DEF: Even

GK: Even

Prediction: Yup, this one is completely dead even. We've tried every single possible way to find an advantage somewhere, but there isn't one. Misty Mts 5 goals on 37 attempts. Pelori 5 goals on 38 attempts. Misty Mts gave up 3 goals on 36 attempts, Pelori conceded 3 goals on 34 attempts. Caradhras has a better save percentage than Manwe, but that's because he's had to save more shots. So, there may be a slight advantage there, but both GKs allowed in 3 goals, so we're not seeing any significant difference. The only advantage will be the match is being played in Valinor, and the Valar will likely be up to their usual tricks to give their team the biggest home advantage possible. This one goes into over time. 2-1 Pelori

Match 8 - Tirion at Lothlorien

OFF: Even

DEF: Lothlorien

GK: Lothlorien

Prediction: They scored the same amount of goals, on virtually the same chances. We'd give a slight edge to Tirion because they're more offensively oriented, but there's really no difference. The difference in the game is clearly the defense and goal keeping of Lothlorien is levels above Tirion's ability. Tirion may have been in a stronger group, but their defense leaks big time and Aule made a mistake replacing himself with Orodreth. It'll be interesting to see Feanor be reunited with his father, that'll be the main storyline going in. Coming out, it'll be Feanor has surpassed his father in skill. 2-1 Lothlorien