[Nilpaurion Felagund]

A1 Doriath vs H2 Minas Morgul

Minas Morgul's greatest achievement to date has been to score a goal against the famed defence of Galadriel, but they still lost that match 2-1. Now they're up against a defence just as unyielding (only 1 goal and 36 shots against (12 on target) in 3 games), but with a whole other level of offence (11 goals and 49 attempts (28 on target) in three games). The Tower of Sorcery will be hardly a road bump in the map drawn by Melian to the finals.

Doriath 4:0 Minas Morgul

B1 Wilderland vs G2 Valinor

Perhaps Sauron was considering himself lucky to have avoided running into the famed Mountains of Defence in their first playoff match, but in exchange they face a red-hot Valinor--which has, however, cooled a little in their last group stage match. This shall be a battle of fire-power against fire-power (no pun intended), two dragons and an offensive maestro on one side, and three of the best strikers in the game on the other. Wilderland's defence look better than Valinor's at first glance (2 goals against and 30 shots allowed (11 on target) in three games), but they have yet to face a team of Valinor's calibre, who plays a balanced possession game similar to them, and with the midfield skill to contest the ball from them, which means Valinor would take more shots against Grimbeorn than he has been accustomed to in the group stage, and Wilderland would have lesser scoring chances against Valinor than they have had so far.

Wilderland 2:3 Valinor

C1 Angband vs F2 Tol Eressea

Morgoth's defence looks worse than Ulmo's at first glance (4 goals against and 39 shots allowed (17 on target) in Angband's three games vs 2 goals against and 30 shots allowed (11 on target) in Tol Eressëa's three games), but one needs to remember that Angband came from a group of offensive powerhouses (29 goals scored in six games by Group C, the most goals as a group by a margin of 5), whereas Tol Eressëa has faced teams that lacked scoring prowess (14 goals scored in six games for Group F, the least by a margin of 4) save for Westernesse, who scored over half (8) of the group's total goals. Plus, Ungoliant was a top-tier goalkeeper from last year, and maintained a decent save rate (13/17 - 76.5%) even in the face of such offensive ferocity. Now a comparison of their defences look much more even, but a comparison of their offences is just overwhelmingly in Angband's favour--9 goals and 43 shots (21 on target) in three games for Angband, compared to 3 and 26 (12) for Tol Eressëa. One can use a similar argument as before, that Angband faced looser defences whereas Tol Eressëa had to face quality defences in Númenor and Westernesse. But Angband managing to score two goals against the Anfauglith backline (with last year's champion keeper Huor manning the goals) cannot be discounted, and Tol Eressëa dreadful shooting in the friendlies (1 goal and 34 shots (16 on target) in four games) should be remembered.

Angband 2:0 Tol Eressea

D1 Eregion vs E2 The Forest

This contest could be seen as one between Elrond and Tom Bombadil. If motivated, the star striker of The Forest could break through even the legendary defences of Eregion. If not, then Elrond's skill would be sufficient to turn away everything The Forest could throw at him. Eärendil has shown signs of life (2 goals in the last match), and Glorfindel remains a key contributor to the Eregion attack (2 goals and 3 assists), whereas The Forest's defence remains in a woeful state, 7 goals against, with 41 shots allowed (18 on target) in three games.

Eregion 2:0 The Forest

E1 Tol-in-Gaurhoth vs D2 Barad-dûr

This is almost a rematch of last year's group stage game. Almost. The Werewolves have grown in strength, and that of the Dark Tower has waned. ShastaWolf was a gem of a find for Tol-in-Gaurhoth, and NerWolf, GwathWolf, and NogWolf (with two goals each) spearhead their effective attack. Barad-dûr has gained Círdan, yes, but they have lost their offensive conductor Sauron in the off-season. They have done well enough in their group against teams not named Eregion, not letting more than two goals per game against the tested attack of Gondor and Eriador, as well as managing to get two goals against them. However, facing the suffocating defence (1 goal against and 25 shots allowed (9 on target) in three games) and the sizzling offence (9 goals and 48 shots (24 on target) in three games) of the Isle of Werewolves, such a performance would avail them little.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth 3:0 Barad-dûr

F1 Westernesse vs C2 Anfauglith

It is both a treat and a waste that we shall be witnessing a match between two cup contenders so early in the knockout stages. Westernesse remains the only spotless team in contention, managing three shutouts in three games. But they have yet to face a team with the offensive ferocity of Anfauglith: 9 goals and 47 shots (23 on target) in three games, including two against Ungoliant and Morgoth's Angband. Westernesse's frontline has been tested against quality defensive teams Tol Eressëa and Númenor and has not come out lacking (averaging 2 goals and 11 shots (5 on target) against the two teams), so anything less than perfect defensive execution is unlikely to deny them. Anfauglith's defence has been less than stellar so far (6 goals and 33 shots allowed (14 on target) in three games, the third worst in playoff teams), so they'd have to perform better offensively if they hope not to be knocked out too soon. Maeglin (2+4) and Gothmog (3+1) are sure to come out hot, but would that be enough?

Westernesse 3:2 Anfauglith

G1 Pelóri vs B2 Misty Mts

Normally the first thing we would consider about Manwë's team is not its skill (which it has in abundance), but its motivation. Since Misty Mts is a team half of baddies, composed partly of the foul creatures that dwell beneath the Hithaeglir, as well as Saruman the wayward Istar, perhaps the motivation is there. We just witnessed their thriller against Valinor in the last group stage match, and if they should decide to bring even half of that effort against Misty Mts, then Caradhras, for all his excellent performance so far, would be swept aside. And if Manwë retains his cool wits with him between the Pelóri goalposts, having faced the lethal trio of Arien, Míriel, and Nerdanel and yielding but once, then Azog, Saruman, and Durin's Bane would fail to faze him.

Pelóri 1:0 Misty Mts

H1 Lothlórien vs A2 Tirion

Tirion's offence (7 goals and 43 shots (21 on target) in three games) and Lothlórien's defence (1 goal against and 32 shots allowed (11 on target) in three games) look to be in parity, so the question of this match would be how much rope Galadriel is willing to give her offence. Fëanor is a striker of the highest quality, and Legolas and Boromir II have been there to provide offensive help to the fleet-footed Noldo. Orodreth has been struggling manning the Tirion goal, saving only two-thirds of the shots against him (14/21), but he was up against Doriath's ranked 1 offence and the tested best-friends combo of Himring, the two teams averaging 3 goals in 15 shots (8 on target) against Tirion's defence. Lothlórien has taken a little more than 13 shots per game (8 on target) in the group stages, so if the Lady of the Golden Wood gives free rein (or as much freedom as she would give) to her team's offence, then Tirion would be hard-pressed to make up for it by scoring on the other end. Finrod and his grandfather Finwë (2 goals and 1 assist each) has been doing well enough so far, but two-time champion forward Aredhel (1 goal and 2 assists) needs to wake up if she wishes to retain her finals appearance streak.

Lothlórien 3:2 Tirion