[Nogrod]

Doriath
vs. Tirion 4-1
vs. Himring 3-0
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 4-0
vs. Minas Morgul 4-0

4-0-0
15-1
22,4% 37(67) – 16(48) 93,8%

Valinor
vs. Gondolin 3-1
vs. Beleriand 3-1
vs. Pelori 1-2
vs. Wilderland (OT) 3-2

3-0-1
10-6
15,6% 28(64) – 23(50) 73,9%

Looking at stats from any area of the play it looks like Doriath is about 25-30% better than Valinor, except in the overall shots taken and allowed where Doriath is only a marginal 5% better – and of course the goals allowed area where they are almost 85% on top of Valinor.

But what do these numbers tell us? Well, nothing and everything, as the statisticians tend to say. Let’s start with why the stats don’t matter here.

Which one would win the game if set against each other, Shire-Bree or Gondolin? Himring or Beleriand? Tirion or Pelori? Minas Morgul or Wilderland?

So if the stats give a general, say 30% advantage for Doriath, one could also say that the odds for the opponents Valinor has faced thus far to win the opponents Doriath has faced would be at least the same, if not higher. Thus making it more or less even.

To make a difference between the team one has then to go for some of the more independent stats. Two stats the AKM believes in more than others are the scoring percentage and the keeper’s saving percentage – and even if one can say Doriath played in a much easier group, both stats leaning stongly in Doriath’s favor can’t be dismissed.

So we’d say Doriath are the slight favourites to win, but not in a walk in the park –manner some see it, as they are really put to test here – one could say the first time in this year’s tournament. Anything could happen here, not the least because Valinor are Valar, and they have Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien…



Angband
vs. Hithlum 4-2
vs. TheDowner 3-0
vs. Anfaughlith 2-2
vs. Tol Eressea 1-0

3-1-0
10-4
18,2% 27(55) – 19(48) 79%

Eregion
vs. Gondor 2-0
vs. Barad Dûr 2-0
vs. Eregion 3-1
vs. The Forest 3-0

4-0-0
10-1
19,2% 27(52) – 24(52) 95,8%

The first glance at the teams would suggest the game would be played between two more or less even attackers, but that Eregion would have a way better defense, mainly because of heroic Elrond at their goal. But the AKM will not be satisfied with that kind of surface-analysis and is willing to go further with the game set-up here as well.

Let’s start with the big questinmark: is Angband’s defense that much weaker? To be honest it is not. Elrond is the leader of the goal-keeper stats and is a remarkably great keeper but the defense is not all about the goalie and also about the defenders, but is a lot about the opponent’s trigger-happiness – and the quality of the opposing offense overall too. And there we have clear difference.

Now Eregion has sailed to this stage without needing to face any offensive powerhouses, while Angband has played against both Hithlum (with Curufin and Celegorm & Hador) and Anfaughlith (with Maeglin, Gothmog and Fingolfin); two teams who live for attacking and have the quality to score. Looking at it from that POV makes Angband defense look a way better the stats show. Eregion has faced thus far Gondor, Eriador and Barad Dûr – and an anemic The Forest – and still they have allowed about as many shots as Angband has! And anyway: the three top teams on group C score together 26 goals – while the top three of group D scored only 16! So the challenge the defenses have met are far from equal.

On offence is tight as well. Tilion has only shown occasional sparks and Ancalagon and Thurihngwethil have carried the flag with some nice back up from Tevildo, and from Morgoth from defense. So even if their number one star has not been at his best yet, they have made a confident attack on a larger front. On Eregion’s side the things are more or less the same even if one could say they have no untapped hero-power that would have been sleeping thus far. Glorfindel has been his dashing self and Eärendil has been good beside him, while Elladan and Elrohir have been helping them out from behind.

So as the AKM sees it, it is a question of Eregion meeting their first offensive team with quality and at the same time the first team with solid defenses. So will Elrond stand as well against quality-opposition and will Glorfindel and Eärendil be able to score against a league tougher defense they have met thus far? If the answer to both these questions is no, then Angband will win easily. If it is yes, it will be a really tight match.



Tol-In-Gaurhoth
vs. The Forest 3-0
vs. Nargothrond 3-0
vs. Mordor 3-1
vs. Barad-Dur 3-0

4-0-0
12-1
18,2% 32(66) – 13(37) 92,3%

Westernesse
vs. Mithrim 4-0
vs. Tol Eressëa 2-0
vs. Númenor 2-0
vs. Angfauglith 3-2

4-0-0
11-2
19,3% 26(57) –18(38) 88,9%

Here again we find a statistician’s nightmare. Both teams look more or less equal on most areas: goals scored, goals allowed, the efficiency of shooting, total number of shots allowed, the goalkeepers saving percentage... But there are two stats that differ somewhat: the number of shots on goal and the number of shots on goal allowed. IN those two T-I-G seems to have something of an edge.
So the question then becomes: are those differences significant, and also, are the similarities actually telling of similarities? Time for the AKM to take a look at them.

First of all the number of shots allowed eg. the tightness of the defenses: after the group phase the numbers were basically even. After that Westernesse played Anfaughlith where as T-I-G played Barad Dûr. The ensuing difference is wiped away immediately. It’s also good to notice that Tar Atanamir’s saving percentage was 100% before meeting Anfaughlith – a kind of team T-I-G has yet to meet.

The number of shots and shots on goal on the other hand show a steady advance for the T-I-G. They have consistently shot a bit more. But a look at the group-stats makes an interesting reading here as well. Of the other teams in their groups only Mithrim from group F gave in as many shots as the three other teams from group E did. And to just make it more particular: Tol Eressëa is one of the tightest defending teams of the whole tournament, and Númenor were tough defenders as well – which can’t be said of Nargothrond, Mordor or The Forest at all. So suddenly the starts start to look a bit different as it looks only quite natural Westernesse hasn’t shot that much.

So all in all, even if the numbers say T-I-G has something like a slight advance we tend to think the tournament of the werewolves is over this time and predict Westernesse will win. It will be a tough game, but still. The final factor in here is that T-I-G hasn’t faced any real tough teams thus far while Westernesse has – and still the stats look pretty much equal.



Pelori
vs. Beleriand 1-1
vs. Gondolin 2-1
vs. Valinor 2-1
vs Misty Mts. 2-0

3-1-0
7-3
13,5% 23(52) – 17(44) 82,4%

Lothlórien
vs. Minas Morgul 2-1
vs. Minas Tirith 3-0
vs. Dunharrow 2-0
vs. Tirion 3-2

4-0-0
10-3
18,5% 30(54) – 19(49) 84,2%

This is one of the games one would not like to predict on. It always seems from the stats that Manwë’s teams are not that good and still, more often than not, they prevail in the end. Some say this will be a duel between Manwë and Fëanor. It might be that. But it is also a fight of Galadriel against Varda and Eönwë.

When meeting some real offensive talent against Tirion, Galadriel gave away two goals immediately. That doesn’t predict good on their side. Then again Pelori hasn’t played against the best goalies either.

On the other hand, both teams have met only one strongly attacking team. The results: Pelori beat Valinor 2-1 while Lothlórien beat Tirion 3-2. And as only a fool would say Tirion would have any chances beating Valinor (Doriath beat Tirion 4-1!), it looks like Pelori’s defences are stronger after all.

The attack then? Lothlórien has been scoring confidently 2 or 3 goals in every game. Legolas has been very good and Fëanor has flashed his talents a few times – but only flashed them. In previous years it was always Túrin and Fëanor going neck by neck leading the scoreboard, but this year Fëanor has given no real challenge to the son of Húrin. Will he set alight in this game – and is it enough facing the defense by Manwë and Mandos? But clearly he is not what he used to be as one can’t blame the toughness of the opposition this time around.

Honestly speaking, Pelori has met with tougher defenses than Lothlórien has and thus the difference in goals made and shots on goal that seem to favour Lothlórien diminish a lot in signifigance.

It would be so compelling to say it is a duel between Manwë and Fëanor and leave it at that. But that of course is not the way to do it. So the AKM hold Pelori slight favourites to the game, but if it comes to a shoot-out we would possibly predict a different outcome…