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Originally Posted by Boromir88
To G55, don't sweat it, at this point one of them is obviously lying.
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Or both, in which case we're screwed either way.
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All you can do is choose who's more believable, if you're wrong, you're wrong. No big deal. Kick yourself a few times and move on, my history is full of being horribly wrong and erratic (ergo look at my Day 1, and that's not even the worst of it.)
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Good advice. But, like I've said before and
Eonwe quite recently, I prefer a debatable ordowolf to a debatable seerwolf.
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There will always be the next day to correct whatever we manage to screw up.
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We have 11 people. Three are wolves. Three innocents to equal that number. That leaves us with 5 innocents to die before we lose. It means - toDay, toNight, toMorrow, toMorrowNight, and the Day after. It would be great if there will be another Ranger save, but it cannot be relied on. So technically we have 3 Days to get a wolf. And we can get one - or two - in 2 Days.
If we take the worse case scenario, where we lynch innocent
Shasta and there is a kill at Night, then we are left with 6 innocents and 3 wolves. Lynch Eomerwolf and a kill at Night again. That makes it 5 innocents and 2 wolves, which means 3 innocents (one of which is a Night kill) to lose before we lose, or two Days to get another wolf.
Pretty risky. But is there a better way? Certainly, if
Eomer is the Seer, life becomes much easier, as we can get two wolves in two consecutive Days, and we'll have some room to breathe. But false hope often proves more fatal than false suspicion...
Edit: xed with Boro, Nerwen, and Bom