Personally I don't see that happening.
First of all, like Trippo said, we already have a lot of religions to choose from. Thinking of all the problems that have arisen because of religion and especially the differences of religion, I don't think we need another one.
Second, Tolkien was a devoted catholic, and that is very clear in his work. You could rename God Illuvatar, but then what? All the principles of Christianity, and more specifically Catholicism, are found in his books. So it would not really be a new religion now would it? Love your neighbour as yourself, honour your mother and father, do not kill, feed the hungry, blablabla, it's all there.
Finally, all known religions have grown troughout thousands of years, because of tales, myths, miracles, prophets,... Religion is for a big part based on history(fictious or not). And it has grown on values like love and belief in a God, or in Gods, and it gives the people who believe a reason for living.
Creating a religion just seems very fake to me.
But you can find positive messages in Tolkien's work. Courage, love for nature, friendship, it's all there. If thát helps you living your life, that's wonderful! ( I know it helps me...)
I just wanna add, Olorin, I couldn't agree more with you.
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I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.- Confucius.
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