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The reason he thought the elves would keep the ring would be his observation of the Elven smiths and the elves of the First Age back in the day I guess? Did he not realise that Elrond and Galadriel were a different kettle of fish? Surely, he would have got a hint with them denying him in the Second Age.
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As Beren looked into her eyes within the shadows of her hair,
The trembling starlight of the skies he saw there mirrored shimmering.
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