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Old 06-17-2012, 06:52 PM   #270
Nerwen
Wisest of the Noldor
 
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1420!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
I hope to go through yesterDay in regards Shasta & Nerwen to look at ther reactions to Sally getting nearer the gallows, but was it Menel, the riddle of why Sally was left alone to die would have been solved.
Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.
Look at the timing of the last votes: Sally nearly was saved, and Nogrod lynched by default (though I doubt that could have been planned). And I would say Sally must have had hopes of turning the vote away from herself, even at the last. What I mean is, I don't think the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was quite as certain beforehand as you think.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.
Agan, you know I hate to use "if I were a wolf" reasoning... but I suppose there's a time and a place for everything. For what it's worth, then: if I were a wolf, I believe I'd have thrown Sally under a bus a lot quicker than I did.

More to the point– since, as it happens, I'm not a wolf , I know you must have wrongly eliminated someone from your list of possibilities.

Now, it seems likely enough the wolves knew that they would not be able to count on each other being around in time to secure the vote. If both Legate and Kath are wolves, and both *had* to vote early, the latter may not have *dared* follow the former's vote, for fear of the village catching on– which might well have done for them. Do you see what I'm saying? I don't know if that was the case, of course– but I don't think it's safe simply to rule Kath out yet, anyway.

Then, Menel:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him)
If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

EDIT:X'd with Nog.
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