[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

She pretty much states that she'll vote for a quiet one or the one who hasn't shown up. Which is what Nessa ended up doing.

For most of Day 1, my biggest worry was that people would not talk and that that would make it difficult to make a decent guess about who to vote for. This isn't a normal sized village but a small one, so we were in a lot of danger and absolutely had to catch a wolf on either Day 1 or 2. A quiet Day 1 would mean a village loss; I was thinking that all the wolves needed to do to win was stay relatively quiet, and wait for louder people to turn on each other. So I was inclined towards a favourable view of anyone who was trying to contribute and encourage discussion, and towards suspicion of anyone quiet or who only posted once or twice.

I think you are mis-stating what I said, if only slightly. I didn't say in that post that I intended to vote for a quiet one or for one who hadn't shown. I said that I had intended to do that, but that because more people were posting, now I would wait and see, and that I wasn't sure who to vote for. But fair enough, I did actually continue with a variation on that strategy until part way through page 2. I tried to match people to my idea of what a sensible wolf would be doing. My bad luck was that by the time I wanted to vote, both of my possible suspects had disqualified themselves from those criteria.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.

Here I do think that you're being a bit misleading.

This is what I said, after going through the worst case voting scenarios.

Originally Posted by me

So...for the purpose of avoiding losing the game in two days and not looking further than that, I suppose it doesn't matter too much whether or not we lose an innocent Pitchwife in addition, because if don't find a wolf in those days, we lose anyway. For the longer term, it's more of a problem.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

8: Votes Nessa because she doesn't like that Nessa voted for Pitch, even though she had plans to do so herself. She does state that after working through worst-case scenarios she had changed her mind.

I hadn't planned to vote for Pitchwife. I did consider it and think something along the lines of "Oh no, Pitchwife's going to get mod-fired. Would it help us to lynch him beforehand?" and so I worked through the worst case scenarios to find the answer to that. (Which was no.)

Originally Posted by Kitanna

10: She thinks the wolves thought Nerwen was the seer. I have no clue how she drew this conclusion.
Why you? Why G55? Nerwen looked like a normal Night 2 pick. She didn't vote or leave much behind.

I thought that everyone was likely to assume that G55 and I were probably innocent, based on our votes for Nessa. We were second and third, and this is a very small game with high stakes, with the odds in the wolves' favour. If either of us were wolves, it would be quite unnecessary and risky to place those votes for Nessa. As such, I thought that the wolves would have to be crazy not to reduce the list of probable innocents, unless they believed they had found the Seer. Therefore, I assumed that because they didn't go for me or G55, they must have believed they had the Seer. I explained this on the last page, too. Nerwen would be a totally normal Night 2 pick, yes, but this is not a normal game, is it?

Originally Posted by me

If Galadriel and I are both innocent, and perhaps neither of us is Radagast, and Radagast has by now had two dreams...that's a maximum of two probably-innocents and three known innocents. 5 innocents in an 8 person village, along with 2 wolves and 1 other villager. To me it would make sense for the wolves to have got rid of me or Galadriel last NIGHT, to cut down the number of probably-innocents, unless they had a really good idea who Radagast might be. Perhaps they were being reckless and hoping for maximum gain? Their current odds may not be great.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

What? You never once expressed any desire to lynch Nessa until your vote post. This looks like a "look, I helped catch a wolf, I wanted to vote for her all along, afterall."

It probably does look that way. I actually said that because I thought that Nessa must still be reading the game and might be feeling bad about her mistake in voting for Pitchwife. I wanted to let her know I was going to vote for her for a really lousy reason even if she hadn't slipped up, in case that made her feel better.

I didn't express any desire to lynch Nessa before that post because my reasoning for lynching her before then was arbitrary. My two suspects from earlier in the game had disqualified themselves from my idea of how a sensible wolf would be behaving (ironically, Nessa actually was one of them; Shasta was the other one) and I wanted to vote for someone ASAP, but didn't have any suspicions any more. So because Nessa had one vote as opposed to Kitanna's two, I planned to vote for her in order to create a small tie and see if any information could be gained from how people reacted. I wasn't satisfied with that reason at all - it was a terrible reason because it wasn't based on any real suspicion - so I was happy when she placed such a suspicious vote for Pitchwife. A vote for him at that point wasn't going to help the village, so I assumed she wasn't trying to help the village.

...Which is probably a lot more than you wanted to hear. I hadn't mentioned most of this because I thought it was trivial and irrelevant. Anyway, I hope that helps. Next up, I'll get to looking at that Kitanna and Inziladun analysis.